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FXUS63 KFGF 111742 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1142 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds increase this morning, with the peak during the passage of the cold front this afternoon and evening. Slight chances (20%) for snow along the front, with wind gusts approaching 35kts in eastern ND and 30kts within the Red River Valley.
Patchy blowing/drifting snow will be possible (20%) during the afternoon and into the overnight period. Visibilities may be restricted at times.

- Ridge builds eastward mid week, with a transition to NW flow by the weekend. There is a chance for a few shortwaves to move along the NW flow aloft bringing trailing cold fronts. This would increase the chances for windy conditions and the chances for light precip.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 527 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Areas to widespread fog continues to affect the Red River Valley and into the Devils Lake Basin. Current guidance has the fog lingering through the early morning before winds start to increase and push the fog out of the region. There is a chance (30%) the winds have little affect on the fog this morning and we could see it continue into the early afternoon before the cold front approaches. Areas under the fog are seeing restrictions to visibility down to a quarter of a mile or less. Upstream in central ND we are seeing the visibilities improve slowly.

A short wave moves along the NW flow aloft bringing a trailing cold front to ND and MN. As the front shifts through winds will increase, with gusts up to 35kts in the Devils Lake Basin towards the Red River Valley. Areas east of the River within the Red River Valley may see gusts up to 30kts. Weak Frontogentic forcing and moisture along the front may bring the slight chance (20%) for light snow showers to the area. Winds combined with the light snow showers may reduce visibilities briefly at times to a couple miles. Otherwise, without falling snow there is a chance (20%) for patchy blowing/drifting snow across eastern ND and into the Red River Valley. This is based on the recent snowpack across the area.
Uncertainty arises with the blowability of the snowpack and if it can be lofted into the air. Most likely (70% chance) there could be pillow drifts across the area. We will continue to monitor the winds and the snowpack to see if its able to be lofted fully into the air and restrict visibilities.

Lingering patchy blowing/drifting snow will be possible during the morning hours on Tuesday, with conditions improving by the late morning and early afternoon. Seasonal average temperatures on Tuesday turn toward above normal by Wednesday as a ridge builds eastward for the middle of the week. NBM guidance has shifted highs on Thursday towards the lower 40s, but with recent snowpack in the north we may only see the low to mid 30s where snowpack is above 2 inches.

Towards the end of the week and into the weekend flow turns back toward the NW with the potential for shortwaves to move through the region. At this times, moisture content is lacking and forcing is rather weak. Clusters have tended to be drier across the region (70% of them), with 30% of them showing weak snow showers. With these shortwaves we could see cold fronts sweeping through bringing further chances for windy conditions. Otherwise expect temperatures to remain above normal, with highs in the 30s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1142 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

IFR stratus clearing out from west to east, with the Red River counties scattering out in the last hour. There is still some linger BR, and as winds kicking up some blowing snow is not out of the question, but think that vis will stay in the 3-5SM range at worst. Stratus will hang on a bit longer at the MN airports, and after a bit of a break, there will be some MVFR clouds coming in later this afternoon and evening as a system digs into northern MN. Conditions should be VFR at all sites by tomorrow morning. Winds will shift around from the southwest to the northwest as a cold front comes down, with some gusts up into the 25 to 30 kt range this afternoon and evening. Winds will diminish to around 15 kts by the end of the period, but stay out of the northwest.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.

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