Lake George, MN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake George, MN

June 18, 2024 12:34 AM CDT (05:34 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:30 AM   Sunset 9:26 PM
Moonrise 5:18 PM   Moonset 1:47 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake George, MN
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Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 180333 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1033 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread thunderstorms will envelope the region tonight into Tuesday morning. Some of these thunderstorms will be strong to severe thunderstorms bringing isolated to scattered instances of strong winds, hail, and flash flooding between 9pm tonight to 7am Tuesday morning.

- Additional round of unsettled weather is forecast Thursday- Friday, including the potential for isolated strong to severe storms.

UPDATE
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The low level jet is already building north with a stalled frontal zone is near the Hwy 2 corridor. The theta-e gradient is only expected to strengthen with increasing moist flow as the south-southeast LLJ intensifies (50-60kt) around/after midnight. Within the WAA we are seeing isolated elevated cells ahead of the main mid level trough, and instability to the south is increasing some, though parcels are very elevated. There is a lower, but non- zero threat for severe hail and wind within the activity that eventually develops in the southern RRV, however the main threat may remain wind tonight where linear clusters align themselves to the 0-3km shear vectors. Due to the shear magnitude the favorable line normal angle needed for surges of strong wind (QLCS type features) is high, so while mean flow is SW- NE along the complexes as long as the behavior of the line carries that momentum we may continue to see an enhanced wind threat due to QLCS type surges. Due to the elevated nature of activity tornado threat is not expected.

Eventually the entire complex riding along the instabilty/theta-e gradient is shown by latest CAMs to slow down, interact and align with the theta-e gradient, orienting with upshear corfidi vectors. This increases the risk for a back-building/slower MCS, lowering the threat for severe wind, but raising the threat for flash flooding through overnight/early morning hours.

Adjustments were made for thunderstorm coverage this evening into the overnight to match current timing.

UPDATE Issued at 728 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

There is one cluster of showers/isolated thunderstorms that developed north faster over the Devils Lake Basin) close to the inverted surface trough axis where WAA and synoptic ascent from the upper jet to the northeast aided in expansion. Impacts are minimal as instability remains under 500 J/KG. The main area of showers/storms is still on track for arrival in the later part of the evening (some indications of this starting to fill in across southern MN. Forecast is on track, with only adjustments to add timing to the near term precip trends, blending into previous forecast. No change in thinking for impacts late evening- overnight at this time.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 420 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Synopsis

Within the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, southwest flow aloft between upper ridging in the eastern CONUS and upper troughing within CAN into the western CONUS is being noted via water vapor imagery. This synoptic regime is allowing moisture transport into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest from the Gulf of Mexico/southern CONUS in the lower levels, with a connection to Pacific moisture in the upper levels. Enhanced southwest flow aloft downstream of the upper trough's axis is also contributing to lee troughing/cyclogenesis at the surface in the High Plains from eastern MT to CO. A surface warm front extends from High Plains of WY/CO through NE into IA.

All guidance progresses this surface warm front and supporting moisture/instability further north into the Dakotas and Minnesota with the help of a better consolidated shortwave trough pushing out of Four Corners to Northern Rockies region tonight into the Dakotas on Tuesday. This will allow ingredients for widespread thunderstorm development via synoptic forcing aloft, frontal and dynamic forcing in the lower levels near and north of the warm front, and increased instability and shear into our area. This brings the likely chance for organized, robust thunderstorms into our area tonight into Tuesday morning.

The surface low and attendant cold front will be pushing through the area Tuesday, with guidance suggesting reinvigorate of robust, organized convection along the cold front within Minnesota as it migrates east. This activity has the potential to be strong to severe bringing hail to the size of ping pongs and wind gusts to 60 mph. Timing of potentially severe storms Tuesday is between 10a-3p before exiting east of our area, best chance east of US Hwy 59.

Behind the departing surface fronts, surface high pressure will likely influence the region Wednesday into Thursday. The flow aloft is progged to become more zonal mid to late this week, with embedded shortwaves moving through the flow helping re-draw moisture/instability back into the region, along with forcing for ascent. This brings the next chance for strong to severe storms late Thursday into Friday.

Confidence in synoptic pattern degrees notably after Friday, with ensembles depicting continued chances for showers and thunderstorms along with average temperatures under zonal flow aloft.

Strong to severe storms tonight into Tuesday morning

Getting into this evening, high res CAMs depict a strong to very strong low level jet of 50-70kt nosing into the Red River Valley from the south. This will provide very strong inflow of weak to moderate instability (1000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE) along with high moisture content (PWATs 1.5-2.0 inches) to feed widespread thunderstorms amid isentropic lift from WAA north of the surface warm front. This pinpoints it within eastern ND into northwest and west-central MN.

While the majority of lowest shear will not be realized for thunderstorm development, strong storm relative flow within the low levels along with elevated updrafts deeper into the hail growth zone will support hail production. Expectation is for lots of updrafts pulsing up will mitigate potential for significant hail sizes, with expected maximum size being golf ball sized, but more likely scattered instances of quarter to ping pong ball sized hail.

Also, while there will be a low level stable layer underneath robust thunderstorms, the magnitude of strong winds in the low levels allows the potential for these winds to reach the ground.
Thus, wind gusts up to 70 mph can be anticipated tonight, especially if thunderstorms can arch into bowing segments that propagate north and/or east.

With strong feed of rich moisture and sufficient instability, convective rainfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour at times will allow the opportunity for flash flooding. This is especially true if these highest rainfall rates can sit over an area for more than 1-2 hours. Relatively more susceptible areas to see flooding include the central REd River Valley into northeast North Dakota where recent rainfall has saturated the top layer of ground, in addition to urban areas. Widespread 1-3 inches of rainfall can be expected, with locally 4-5 inches.
This may also impact riverine potential flooding in the coming days as well.

...Additional chance for strong to severe storms Thursday-Friday...

Zonal flow aloft allows moisture/instability to re-enter our area late Thursday into Friday. Ensemble guidance suggests one or more shortwave troughs moving through the Northern Plains during this timeframe, bringing forcing for ascent and increased kinematics that may organize convection. This introduces the next opportunity for strong to severe thunderstorms. This is reflected in guidance like CSU ML severe forecasts. Confidence in coverage and magnitude is still in question however. At this time, a significant severe weather episode is not likely.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 713 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Shower/thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across eastern ND and northwest MN later this evening south to north (after 03Z), with rain/thunder impacts at all terminals. There is some early activity at KDVL that is quickly transitioning north and a lull will be expected after it passes at that site before the main activity gets underway. The activity later tonight carries a low chance for severe wind/hail at TAF sites and a higher risk for heavy rain, and that will need to be monitored. MVFR (and eventually IFR) stratus spreads north as well due to increasing moisture and where heavier rain occurs visibility may briefly drop below 3sm. Showers and thunderstorms transition east but stratus is shown to linger into the afternoon (high chance for MVFR into the evening).

A strong low level jet develops late this evening as well, and low level wind shear (2kft agl or lower) in the 40-50kt range should be expected. Winds above this layer increase substantially overnight (55-70kt).

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NDZ007-008-014>016- 024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MNZ001>009-013>017- 022>024-027>032-040.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KPKD PARK RAPIDS MUNIKONSHOK FIELD,MN 15 sm41 minESE 0710 smOvercast Lt Rain 63°F57°F83%29.66
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