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FXUS63 KFGF 110514 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1114 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog continues on the edge of the cloud deck, and likely more will develop after sunset.

- Clipper moving through tomorrow will push a cold front down, bringing some snow showers and patchy blowing snow.

- Quiet conditions return for the rest of the week.

UPDATE
Issued at 520 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Patchy dense fog continues to expand westward this evening, with widespread visibility down to 1 mile, and isolated spots with 1/4 mile or less. Went with a dense fog advisory for the northern and central Red River Valley, but may need to expand this if coverage continues to expand. NBM probs indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of vis less than 1 mile for points west of the Valley; however, guidance seems to be under-performing for areas within the Valley, with probs less than 10 percent. Blended CONSMOS, CONSAll, and CONSRaw, which is more representative of current conditions.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 242 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Tonight...Surface ridging over MN will shift further southeast, allowing southerly winds. There continues to be quite a bit of stratus across the Red River Valley into our MN counties, not moving much throughout the day. Fog and BR continue along the western edge of the stratus deck, mainly in eastern ND but some spots in far western MN also have vis around 3 to 5 miles. With dew point depressions still low over our far western tier that has seen some clearing, along with southerly winds over snow pack, think that fog will fill in again over much of our central and eastern counties. Still not confident in density or coverage, so will keep patchy for now. Probabilities of visibility under one mile are 20 to 30 percent across many locations in eastern ND and northwestern MN overnight, which fits the patchy fog mention.

Monday and Monday night...A strong shortwave trough will move down from Canada into our northern counties. While this clipper system will not produce a lot of moisture, it will push another cold front down into the area during the day on Monday. Model signal for snow falling does not look very high, but continued to keep some 15 to 20 percent POPs for snow showers developing as the cold front moves through. Winds will pick up with the front under good cold air advection and a strong pressure rise/fall couplet. Upper level winds are fortunately not quite as strong as yesterday's system, with around 35 kts to mix down.
Think there will be strong northwest winds and some patchy blowing snow, but with snow age and temperatures in the 20s and even low 30s during the day on Monday before the front comes through, blowing snow chances look less than 5 percent unless there is some falling snow. Will continue to message breezy to windy conditions with some patchy blowing snow Monday afternoon and evening, but at this point think impacts will be minor and short lived. Temps will fall behind the cold front, with some single digits possible Monday night although much will depend on cloud cover which has not been well handled lately.

Tuesday through Thursday...Northwesterly flow aloft gives way to riding for mid-week. Surface high pressure over the eastern Plains gives say to some troughing to our west, with winds from the southwest over our CWA. There looks to be a good signal in the ensemble R climate percentiles for the high heights and warm 850mb temps. However, continued previous trend of lowering highs for Wednesday and Thursday a bit in the north as with snowpack there will be struggle to make it above freezing.

Friday through Sunday...Heights start to fall again as there is some indication of a clipper system moving out of Canada Friday night into Saturday, with the operational ECMWF showing some precipitation. Not much signal with the other ensemble members, and probabilities in the NBM are less than 5 percent for any substantial precipitation over 0.10 in 6 hours. The predictability is better for some cooler air arriving for the weekend, although temps still look to be above seasonal averages.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1115 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Areas of dense fog continue across the region tonight into Monday morning. LIFR ceilings are anticipated at all TAF sites initially, with slow improvement expected further into Monday morning. Visibility reductions are most likely at KGFK and KDVL, but still remain possible at KFAR and KTVF. Winds are expected to increase after about 12Z across the area, which should help clear some of the BR and FG; however, a cold front will bring a wind shift, along with a chance for blowing and drifting snow starting around midday.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for NDZ007-008-015- 016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for MNZ001-004-007.

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