Lake George, MN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake George, MN

June 13, 2024 5:30 AM CDT (10:30 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:30 AM   Sunset 9:24 PM
Moonrise 11:40 AM   Moonset 12:30 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake George, MN
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Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 130758 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 258 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled period heading into next week with 500 mb trough west and ridge east and area in southwest flow aloft.

- There is a 15 percent probability of another round of severe thunderstorms on Monday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Synopsis

For today, we will be dealing with a 500 mb low over the Manitoba lakes and a short wave which is well seen moving on the south side of the upper low near Yorkton SK. This wave will move east-southeast toward toward Lake of the Woods region. 500 mb temps in the -17/-18C range near the ND/MB border and into NW MN along with daytime heating into the 70-75 range will create MU CAPES in the 500-800 j/kg range, with 20 pct chance of MU CAPE in the 1000-1100 j/kg range near Roseau and Baudette. Bukfit sounding profile for BDE shows that steep lapse rate 7.5 C/km.
All of this is sufficient for scattered thunderstorms to develop today Langdon to Thief River Falls to Bemidji area north. Pea size hail wouldnt be out of the question from some storms, but expect non-severe. This follows Day 1 SPC outlook as well.

Scattered storms diminish early this evening and tonight into most of Friday look dry with clear to partly cloudy sky as the colder air aloft move east.

Unsettled period into next week

500 mb ridging builds into the northern Plains Friday night but the building ridge quickly shifts east toward the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region Sunday and holds there thru most of the next week. This will set the region up in a southwest flow aloft with periodic short waves moving northeast in the flow through the area giving chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Position of front will be critical to where any severe threat lies with ECMWF remaining slower to advance 500 mb trough to our west east vs GFS. Per SPC discussion on days 4-5 severe threat will side more toward a slower ECMWF progression. That would leave south/east half of the fcst area in some strong/severe threat early next week, while significantly cooler air and more showery weather occurs west central/northwest into north central ND incl Devils Lake region. From Grand Ensemble in DESI the probs for more than 1.5 inch of rain Sun-Wed next week is highest in warm sector due to more convective nature of the rainfall...roughly over the southeast fcst area and southeast from there toward the Twin Cities and up toward Duluth.

15 pct probability of severe weather next Monday

SPC in its Thu AM update kept a 15 pct prob of severe in the RRV and MN for Monday. Uncertainity on frontal location means no outlook for Tuesday. But there will be sufficient instability in the warm sector Monday with ECMWF maintaining a stormier outlook vs GFS which pushes warm unstable airmass far south and east.



AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Storms have dissipated across the region this evening, with a few isolated thunderstorms in southern Manitoba that will shift southward post 7z. These have a slight potential to affect TVF and DVL between 7z and 12z. Otherwise, winds will turn toward the west around sunrise, with gusts reaching 25kts for DVL, TVF, FAR, and GFK 18z through 02z. Isolated thunderstorm potential in the mid afternoon through 3z for TVF and BJI.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KPKD PARK RAPIDS MUNIKONSHOK FIELD,MN 15 sm37 mincalm10 smPartly Cloudy54°F52°F94%29.75


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