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FXUS63 KDLH 092114 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 314 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Total snowfall accumulations of around 1-2 inches are expected from today through early Sunday for most. South Shore accumulations of several inches are expected, highest in northern Iron County.

- Gusty conditions through this evening with gusts to 35 to 45 mph, highest along the North Shore. Turning gusty again Monday night into Tuesday.

- Cooler and mostly dry to start the week, then warming well- above average late this week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 315 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Rest of Today - Early Sunday:

Early this afternoon, regional surface analysis depicted low pressure centered over western Lake Superior with a cold front draped across NW WI down into central IA. Radar imagery and area webcams show precipitation moving into NW WI as a rain/snow mix initially behind the cold front, but colder air behind the front farther west into NE MN has changed precipitation to snow for most. Expect the transition to all snow to continue into NW WI this evening as colder air works in behind the cold front and temperatures fall below freezing. Expect slick roads from the snow to continue to spread eastward as temperatures cool, as well. In addition to the snow, gusty northwest winds behind the cold front are expanding across the Northland, with many locations in north-central and NE MN already seeing gusts to 25 to locally 40 mph. Wind gusts could reach upwards of 40-45 mph along the North Shore of Lake Superior this evening until around or shortly after midnight. Have held off on issuing a Wind Advisory for portions of the North Shore given the expected localized nature of gusts at or slightly above 45 mph. The stronger winds combined with falling snow will continue to drop visibilities to around or below a mile at times, leading to additional driving hazards on area roadways for this evening.

Snow comes to an end for most areas from west to east by the end of this evening aside from the South Shore, where gravity wave- induced snow in northern Douglas and Bayfield Counties will linger into early tonight and lake-effect snow in Iron County that will persist into early Sunday morning given added moisture from Lake Superior. Total snowfall accumulations across most of the area should amount to around 1-2 inches. Meanwhile, HRRR probability-matched means indicate the potential for 2-3 inch totals in Douglas and Bayfield Counties where the gravity wave- induced snow persists, and 3-6 inches of accumulations in northern Iron County (locally 2-4 inches in central Ashland County). A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Iron County into tonight where snowfall amounts will be highest.

Sunday - Monday:

Drier weather and relatively cooler, but near normal temperatures return for Sunday through daytime Monday as the colder airmass behind the cold front settles into the region.
Expect low temperatures in the teens and high temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s both days.

Late Monday - Tuesday:

As a low pressure system traverses the southern shore of Hudson Bay from late Monday into early Tuesday, another cold front will once again move through the Northland, with shortwave energy aloft grazing the northern portions of the Northland. The airmass in the wake of this front will be pretty dry, with PWATs around 0.1". However, some model soundings do show the potential for just enough saturation in the dendritic growth zone aloft to squeeze out some very light snowfall with this clipper Monday night into Tuesday, though the potential for seeing measurable snowfall is very low (less than 20%).

Additionally, winds will once again be gusty with with and behind the passing cold front, with gusts up to 25-40 mph (local gusts up to 45 mph along the North Shore). Add in high temperatures reaching the 20s on Tuesday, and daytime wind chills may only top out in the single digits to low teens.

Late Next Week:

The latter half of next week looks warmer and drier as ridging aloft moves over the Upper Midwest. There is fairly high confidence in temperatures rising into the low to mid 40s on Thursday (15-20 degrees above normal), while Thursday and Friday low temperatures in the 20s will be similar to what normal highs are for mid-December.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1150 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

As of 18Z, the leading edge of precipitation is located at the MN/WI border. Precipitation has initially been a wintry mix on the leading edge of precipitation, but will quickly switch over to snow and blowing snow as the precipitation expands eastwards. While DLH and HYR start out VFR, IFR to LIFR conditions west of these sites will expand eastward this afternoon when conditions will be worst. Improvement back to MVFR will return this evening for most terminals, though some Lake Superior South Shore terminals could see lingering lake- effect snow through this evening.

Gusty NW winds continue to spread across the area the Northland today, with gusts up to 30 to 45 mph, strongest along the North Shore of Lake Superior this evening. Snow accumulations should be at or less than 2" at all terminals.

MARINE
Issued at 315 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

The start time of the Gale Warning for the North Shore and Small Craft Advisory for the South Shore had been pushed back a couple of hours due to the delayed start time of the stronger northwest winds on Lake Superior until now. The strongest winds along the North Shore should be along and north of Silver Bay where gusts up to around 40 knots are expected. The Gale Warning extends down to the Twin Ports where gusts up to Warning also extends down to the Twin Ports where 35 knots are expected.

Small crafts are in effect for the South Shore where wave heights will quickly build to 4 to 7 feet this evening, highest in the Outer Apostle Islands. Winds and waves subside from Sunday morning into Monday morning increasing again Monday afternoon with strong southwesterly winds shifting to west- northwesterly Monday night into Tuesday as another cold front moves through the Northland.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Sunday for WIZ004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for LSZ121-145>148- 150.
Gale Warning until 4 AM CST Sunday for LSZ140>144.

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