Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Remer, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 445 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Today through Wednesday night...

It was a clear and crisp day across much of the northland, as high pressure brought light winds and sunny skies. The lone exceptions were across the Arrowhead, and northern Wisconsin, where low stratus lingered. Highs were generally in the single digits.

Later tonight temperatures will fall back below zero, but light south/southwest winds will develop as the surface high moves east. These southwest winds will increase during the day, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph expected by the afternoon. Clouds will also be on the increase as an upper level wave on the poleward side of a jet streak will bring 500mb height falls and rising air across the region. Forecast soundings are in good agreement with rising air, saturation, and precipitation across most of the region. We did increase precipitation chances to around 60 to 70%, and these may increase if the forecast trends continue.
For example, at Duluth, the 12Z EC Ensemble only has 3 dry members out of 50, meaning 94% of them are showing precipitation. The 12Z GEFS has only 1 dry member out of 30 (97% chance of precip) and 12Z Canadian ensemble has all members showing precip.

This precipitation should fall as snow, but there is a non-zero chance that some freezing drizzle could develop in as the mid levels dry out and we lose ice crystals. Snowfall amounts will be light, generally a dusting to about 2 inches.

Thursday through Tuesday...

The main forecast points for the latter half of the week and into next week is a brief warmup followed by sustained cool down. Highs will be in the low 30s on Thursday, and a few degrees warmer on Friday. Winds will be light on Thursday and Friday morning, but this reprieve from winter will be short- lived as a cold front pushes through the region late Friday, and brings another blast of arctic air that will last into early next week. Saturday will be blustery with highs occurring in the morning, and steady or falling temperatures the rest of the day. The coldest days will be Sunday and Monday, when highs will remain below zero, and overnight lows will be -15 to -20 degrees. The combination of cold temperatures and steady northwest wind will likely lead to another round of Cold Weather Advisories for both Sunday and Monday morning, possibly Tuesday as well. At this time, Extreme Cold Warnings are not expected.
Wind chills of -25 to -35 are most likely, and locations that fall to near -40 have a higher threshold. A few snow showers are possible at times given the cold air mass, but little to accumulation is expected next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 552 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Corrected to change cold front mention to warm front.

VFR conditions with relatively light southwest winds are expected overnight. An area of low pressure forecast to move east across far northern Canada will pull a warm front southeastward across the Northland late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.
Winds will become gusty at the surface and low- level wind shear will precede and trail behind the front. VFR ceilings will develop in the morning and descend into MVFR through the day. Snow is forecast to accompany the front with MVFR visibility likely and at least a 30 percent chance of IFR visibility down to 1 mile or less. Due to timing concerns, opted for PROB30s to handle the IFR visibility potential. As precipitation tapers off behind the front, loss of ice aloft will support a chance of freezing drizzle mixing with the snow from late afternoon into Wednesday evening.

Snow amounts of a dusting up to around 2 inches are forecast with water content of a trace up to around a tenth of an inch.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 612 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

A brief respite from gusty winds and hazardous waves is expected tonight and early Wednesday morning as high pressure slides southeastward across the region. An area of low pressure over far northern Canada will move eastward Wednesday and push a warm front from the western Dakotas tonight across western Lake Superior Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of the front winds will back southwesterly and become gusty once again. Waves will build to 3 to 9 feet by early Wednesday afternoon. There is a 60-80 percent chance of gales of 35 to 40 knots Wednesday afternoon, particularly from Grand Portage to Grand Marais and from Port Wing to Sand Island and the Outer Apostle Islands. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Watches are in effect late Wednesday morning into early Wednesday evening.

The warm front will bring snow to western Lake Superior which may reduce visibility to less than 1 mile Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening. A cold front will arrive late Wednesday evening and will veer winds northwesterly. Wind speeds and gusts along with wave heights will trend lower as the wind direction changes and then increase again through the night.
Small Craft Advisories will likely be extended through the morning Thursday. There is a 30 percent chance of gales to 40 knots from Silver Bay to Grand Portage early Thursday morning as downslope winds increase.

Another area of low pressure will move through the region Friday and Saturday bringing another period of hazardous conditions.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for LSZ121-141>145-147-148.
Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for LSZ140-146-150.