Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Remer, MN
May 7, 2024 1:30 AM CDT (06:30 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:42 AM Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 4:21 AM Moonset 7:34 PM |
FXUS63 KDLH 070545 AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1245 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Rain moves into the area early this morning. Strong storms are possible Tuesday mid-afternoon to mid-evening, producing small hail and gusty winds.
- Drier conditions arrive Wednesday with the chance for a potent lake breeze each day.
- Rain chances increase late this week and into the weekend due to a few shortwaves dropping out of Canada.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Short Term:
Beautiful Spring conditions are in place across much of the Northland and will persist into this evening. Highs will top off in the upper 60s (near the lake) to low 70s (inland) with mostly clear skies and a light SE wind to top it all off. Late this evening and into early tomorrow is when our weather will drastically change for the messier. At the synoptic level, a negatively tilted upper level trough will exit the Southern Plains this afternoon leaving much of the Plains and Great Lakes in strong SW flow at 500mb. This will contribute to the development of sub 980mb surface low across the Northern High Plains. While the surface low itself won’t be close to our CWA, an occluded front that will stretch from Dakotas through Minnesota and down into the Southern Great Lakes will be the focus of our precipitation tomorrow morning. The front will be orientated NW-SE and be moving perpendicular to it’s orientation towards the NE. The frontal boundary will give us rain showers starting in Central Minnesota before overspreading towards NW Wisconsin and towards the Arrowhead. Rainfall at times could be heavy with 6hr rainfall totals reaching upwards of 0.5” along the I-35 corridor and up towards the North Shore. This band should slowly weaken and drift towards the US/Canadian Border through the day allowing for some clearing behind it through the afternoon. Some instability will develop with up to 1000J/kg of MUCAPE developing in NW Wisconsin with lesser amounts as one heads further NW towards the MN/WI border and into Minnesota. With bulk shear in the 20-40kt range, we could see some convective elements with any storms that can fire Tuesday Afternoon. The SPC has placed the entire area in a General Thunderstorm Risk with a few of our counties in NW Wisconsin in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5). Those counties would have the best chance of seeing stronger storms capable of gusty winds and small hail (20-30%). Should we see slightly more clearing, there’s a non- zero chance that we get cold air funnels due to the presence of adequate 3CAPE and low-level vorticity.
Extended Range:
By Wednesday morning most of the precipitation will have ended as the system finally leaves our region. Following it’s exit, our region will be placed in a northerly flow in tandem with another system developing across the Southern Great Lakes late on Wednesday. Within this northerly flow, a strong lake breeze will form with temperatures near the lake in the upper 40s/lower 50s while inland areas will see their highs closer to 62-67 degrees.
Thursday will be similar with temperatures likely a few degrees warmer than the prior day. As we head into the weekend, a series of shortwaves will move SE out of Canada and into our vicinity. We should see elevated precipitation chances for each of the days with no specifics set in stone at this point.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
An approaching front will increase rainfall at area terminals from 10-15Z this morning, bringing MVFR skies and visibility, locally down to IFR. The heaviest band of moderate rain is expected to have a residual period of 4-6 hours today at each terminal before more localized rain showers setup, especially for northeast Minnesota. IFR visibility is most likely along the North Shore and into the Arrowhead today. Incoming instability this afternoon produces a 20-30% chance of isolated strong thunderstorms from BRD to RZN to HYR from 20Z Tue - 03Z Wed; have maintained vicinity thunderstorms at HYR for this being the highest storm chances of all TAF sites, but short-term amendments to BRD are entirely possible. Fog is expected tonight, mainly after 03Z and lasting into early Wednesday morning.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
Northeast winds are beginning to increase out on Lake Superior this afternoon, with Small Craft Advisories going into effect this afternoon as both winds and waves increase. A low pressure system advancing toward the area will push rainfall into the area overnight tonight and Tuesday, keeping the trend of increasing winds and waves going through the daytime on Tuesday.
Winds may diminish for a short time this evening before increasing again during the early morning hours of Tuesday, but the longer fetch of the wind will keep waves building. We may have a period on Tuesday from late morning through the afternoon where we may get some gale force gusts along the North Shore north of Two Harbors. Currently, the certainty on this is not very high and this potential may not affect a very large area or for very long, so have not upgraded to a Gale Warning at this time. After Tuesday, northeast winds continue into Wednesday and even Thursday before backing into the north. We may need additional Small Craft Advisories for all or parts of the lake and for the time frame through Thursday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140-147-150.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ141>146.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ148.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1245 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Rain moves into the area early this morning. Strong storms are possible Tuesday mid-afternoon to mid-evening, producing small hail and gusty winds.
- Drier conditions arrive Wednesday with the chance for a potent lake breeze each day.
- Rain chances increase late this week and into the weekend due to a few shortwaves dropping out of Canada.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Short Term:
Beautiful Spring conditions are in place across much of the Northland and will persist into this evening. Highs will top off in the upper 60s (near the lake) to low 70s (inland) with mostly clear skies and a light SE wind to top it all off. Late this evening and into early tomorrow is when our weather will drastically change for the messier. At the synoptic level, a negatively tilted upper level trough will exit the Southern Plains this afternoon leaving much of the Plains and Great Lakes in strong SW flow at 500mb. This will contribute to the development of sub 980mb surface low across the Northern High Plains. While the surface low itself won’t be close to our CWA, an occluded front that will stretch from Dakotas through Minnesota and down into the Southern Great Lakes will be the focus of our precipitation tomorrow morning. The front will be orientated NW-SE and be moving perpendicular to it’s orientation towards the NE. The frontal boundary will give us rain showers starting in Central Minnesota before overspreading towards NW Wisconsin and towards the Arrowhead. Rainfall at times could be heavy with 6hr rainfall totals reaching upwards of 0.5” along the I-35 corridor and up towards the North Shore. This band should slowly weaken and drift towards the US/Canadian Border through the day allowing for some clearing behind it through the afternoon. Some instability will develop with up to 1000J/kg of MUCAPE developing in NW Wisconsin with lesser amounts as one heads further NW towards the MN/WI border and into Minnesota. With bulk shear in the 20-40kt range, we could see some convective elements with any storms that can fire Tuesday Afternoon. The SPC has placed the entire area in a General Thunderstorm Risk with a few of our counties in NW Wisconsin in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5). Those counties would have the best chance of seeing stronger storms capable of gusty winds and small hail (20-30%). Should we see slightly more clearing, there’s a non- zero chance that we get cold air funnels due to the presence of adequate 3CAPE and low-level vorticity.
Extended Range:
By Wednesday morning most of the precipitation will have ended as the system finally leaves our region. Following it’s exit, our region will be placed in a northerly flow in tandem with another system developing across the Southern Great Lakes late on Wednesday. Within this northerly flow, a strong lake breeze will form with temperatures near the lake in the upper 40s/lower 50s while inland areas will see their highs closer to 62-67 degrees.
Thursday will be similar with temperatures likely a few degrees warmer than the prior day. As we head into the weekend, a series of shortwaves will move SE out of Canada and into our vicinity. We should see elevated precipitation chances for each of the days with no specifics set in stone at this point.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
An approaching front will increase rainfall at area terminals from 10-15Z this morning, bringing MVFR skies and visibility, locally down to IFR. The heaviest band of moderate rain is expected to have a residual period of 4-6 hours today at each terminal before more localized rain showers setup, especially for northeast Minnesota. IFR visibility is most likely along the North Shore and into the Arrowhead today. Incoming instability this afternoon produces a 20-30% chance of isolated strong thunderstorms from BRD to RZN to HYR from 20Z Tue - 03Z Wed; have maintained vicinity thunderstorms at HYR for this being the highest storm chances of all TAF sites, but short-term amendments to BRD are entirely possible. Fog is expected tonight, mainly after 03Z and lasting into early Wednesday morning.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
Northeast winds are beginning to increase out on Lake Superior this afternoon, with Small Craft Advisories going into effect this afternoon as both winds and waves increase. A low pressure system advancing toward the area will push rainfall into the area overnight tonight and Tuesday, keeping the trend of increasing winds and waves going through the daytime on Tuesday.
Winds may diminish for a short time this evening before increasing again during the early morning hours of Tuesday, but the longer fetch of the wind will keep waves building. We may have a period on Tuesday from late morning through the afternoon where we may get some gale force gusts along the North Shore north of Two Harbors. Currently, the certainty on this is not very high and this potential may not affect a very large area or for very long, so have not upgraded to a Gale Warning at this time. After Tuesday, northeast winds continue into Wednesday and even Thursday before backing into the north. We may need additional Small Craft Advisories for all or parts of the lake and for the time frame through Thursday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140-147-150.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ141>146.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ148.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KXVG LONGVILLE MUNI,MN | 13 sm | 17 min | E 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 55°F | 37°F | 51% | 29.56 |
Duluth, MN,
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