Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Enumclaw, WA

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A strong atmospheric system is well underway across the Pacific Northwest. The axis of moisture has shifted to the south this afternoon with most areas northward of Chehalis seeing drier conditions, which has provided a brief lull in rainfall across the region. However, flooding is still expected despite a brief decrease in rainfall. Heavy precipitation will fill back in later this afternoon into the early hours of the evening as the atmospheric river shifts northward and takes direct aim once again at western Washington.

This second wave of precipitation will have a longer duration of rain, with latest guidance trending a little bit wetter than previous forecasts. This longer duration rainfall will keep rivers elevated, with another round of rises on area rivers - potentially even peaking higher than the previous round.
Significant river flooding is expected to continue over the next several days. The following key messages with this atmospheric river system are outlined below:

* HEAVY RAIN: Despite a decrease in rainfall this afternoon, the atmospheric river system will bring another wave of heavy rain to western Washington by this evening, continuing through Wednesday night. While areas east of the Olympics will likely see some shadowing at the onset of precipitation once again this afternoon, heavy rain will continue to cause flooding concerns to area rivers, urban areas, and areas with poor drainage. Forecast models remain consistent with rainfall forecasts, showing an additional 2 to 3 inches of rain across the lowlands and 5 to 8 inches over the mountains through late Wednesday. Many area rivers have entered major flood stage, with another wave of rises expected tonight into Thursday. For more details, see the HYDROLOGY section below.

* WINDS: Another wave of breezy winds can be expected alongside the second wave of rainfall. Wind gusts are expected to reach 40-45 mph across the region late this evening as the second wave of the atmospheric river system pushes into the region.
Winds will remain breezy through Wednesday.

* COASTAL FLOODING: Minor coastal flooding remains possible along the northern Salish Sea coastlines during Wednesdays high astronomical tide. While the tides will generally remain below or nearing thresholds, heightened river flows or wind effects could exacerbate inundation in some areas around high tide.

In addition, snow levels are generally near 3500-4000 feet over the mountains, which has resulted in minor accumulating snow this afternoon generally above 4500 feet. Snow levels will begin to rise rapidly by this evening to 7000 to 9000 feet as the atmospheric river shifts northward.

The returning surge of moisture later this evening will bring warmer temperatures and higher snow levels throughout the remainder of the week. Temperatures will peak well above normal most days this week, with temperatures in the low to upper 50s across the lowlands.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Forecast models remain in good agreement that unsettled conditions will continue through the remainder of the week and into early next week as additional systems are set to cross over the Pacific Northwest. It is likely that impacts from significant river flooding will linger through Thursday and even into the weekend for many areas. Latest ensemble data have shown potentially more systems on the way through the early part of next week, starting on Monday, which will keep the pattern wet and active.

15/Mazurkiewicz

AVIATION...
This afternoon: a break continues across western WA in between atmospheric river systems. Ceilings are a mix between MVFR and VFR with BKN to OVC decks overhead, with light south winds 5-10 kt. The next frontal system associated with the atmospheric river will approach with a warm front to the southwest late tonight, and a cold front will follow very quickly behind into Wednesday/Thursday. Rain will arrive in the southern terminals as early as 00Z, and spread northward through the evening into Wednesday and Thursday. Some of the bands of rain may produce moderate to heavy precipitation rates, reducing visibilities down to 2 SM. Ceilings will gradually lower to MVFR tonight, and eventually IFR/LIFR Wednesday morning (best chance of LIFR is along the coast). Mist will likely accompany the lower ceilings, with visibilities down to 2-4 SM. The lower conditions are expected to persist through Wednesday and up to at least early Thursday. Breezy southwest winds 15-20 kt gusting to 30-35 kt are expected most of Wednesday, with the strongest winds along the coast and central/south interior terminals.

KSEA...VFR through early this evening. Rain showers will begin arriving as early as 00-02Z, and become steady tonight into Wednesday. Moderate to heavy rain may reduce visibilities down to 2 SM at times. South winds 5-10 kt will increase late tonight to 15-20 kt gusting to 35 kt through most of Wednesday, decreasing to 5-10 kt late Wednesday evening. Ceilings to lower to MVFR as rain arrives this evening, with IFR likely Wednesday morning through evening.

HPR

MARINE
The second frontal system with an atmospheric river will arrive later this evening and persist into Wednesday. Moderate to heavy rain over the waters (along with lower ceilings and mist) may reduce visibilities at times. South winds will begin to increase tonight, and persist into much of Wednesday. West winds will follow in the Strait of Juan de Fuca late Wednesday evening. Most waters are under small craft advisories for the breezy winds. The inner coastal waters and west/central Strait of Juan de Fuca were upgraded to gale warnings with frequent gusts to 35 kt likely this evening. Puget Sound waters is the next area being monitored for a possible upgrade to a gale warning (but confidence was not high enough to issue it this afternoon). Winds will decrease below any concern Thursday through early next week, where another system may produce gusty small craft winds for the coastal waters, and interior waters.

Seas of 8-12 ft will continue through Thursday, decreasing to 6 to 8 ft Sunday, increasing to 10-13 ft early next week.

HPR

HYDROLOGY
A strong atmospheric atmospheric will continue to move through the Pacific Northwest through Wednesday, shifting back north, and bringing significant heavy rainfall across the area. 48-hour precipitation amounts ending Wednesday night will likely reach 2 to 4 inches across the lowlands, with 6 to 10 inches over the Olympics and Cascades with locally higher amounts over 12 inches in the the central and southern Cascades.

Most rivers across western Washington will be affected by this second wave and flood warnings remain in effect. Consult weather.gov/seattle for the latest. While some uncertainty does still remain in regards to the exact flood levels and stages, many river forecast points are projected to reach major flood stage in the days ahead. Therefore, it will be critical to monitor the forecasts now and through the next seven days. Additional precipitation is also possible Thursday and Friday, which may keep rivers elevated heading into the weekend.

A Flood Watch remains in effect across all of western Washington through Friday.

With the wet antecedent soil conditions, the landslide threat across the region will increase with this system. Potential has also increased for debris flows over area burn scars, which will continue to be monitored.

Urban and small stream flooding, as well as areas with poor drainage, should be alert to the potential for localized nuisance flooding and ponding on roadways. Low water crossings may become impacted or impassable.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Grays Harbor County Coast-Island County- Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties- Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties- Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Northern Washington Coast- Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal-Western Strait of Juan de Fuca- Willapa and Black Hills.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM PST Wednesday for Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan County.

Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Wednesday for City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area- Eastern Kitsap County-Eastside-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Grays Harbor County Coast- Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Middle Chehalis River Valley- Northern Washington Coast-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.

Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Wednesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Wednesday for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

Gale Warning until 10 PM PST Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.