Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Copper City, MI
December 8, 2023 3:28 PM EST (20:28 UTC)
Sunrise 8:18AM Sunset 5:04PM Moonrise 3:34AM Moonset 2:33PM
LSZ246 /o.can.kmqt.ma.w.0057.000000t0000z-231005t2115z/ 503 Pm Edt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled...
the affected areas were... Point isabelle to lower entrance of portage canal mi...
the Thunderstorm has moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters.
lat...lon 4697 8806 4711 8813 4714 8803 4698 8789 time...mot...loc 2102z 249deg 34kt 4704 8797
.the special marine warning is cancelled...
the affected areas were... Point isabelle to lower entrance of portage canal mi...
the Thunderstorm has moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters.
lat...lon 4697 8806 4711 8813 4714 8803 4698 8789 time...mot...loc 2102z 249deg 34kt 4704 8797
LSZ200
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KMQT 081833 AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 133 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023
SHORT TERM
(The rest of this afternoon through tonight)
Issued at 133 PM EST FRI DEC 8 2023
Key Messages: -Warm this afternoon. Some spots may flirt with 50F again, especially over the west. Some records may also be broken.
-Rain could be seen over the west-central U.P. by early Saturday morning.
We are already seeing another warm day across our area today as spots across Upper Michigan have already reported temperatures up to 50F as of 1PM EST. While mostly cloudy conditions will somewhat limit temperatures from getting much warmer across the central and east, a hole in the cloud cover currently moving over the western U.P. (as seen by satellite imagery) will likely increase temperatures a couple of degrees from what we are seeing as of the time of this writing. Therefore, there may be quite a few spots over the western U.P. that get above 50F this afternoon before cloud cover over northwestern Wisconsin moves in later this afternoon.
Thus, I'm confident (80 to 90% certain) that some high temperature records will be broken today, particularly over the west.
Expect fairly mild temperatures tonight as mostly cloudy skies dominate. As a low pressure lifts from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Lake Michigan tonight into Saturday morning, we may see some rainfall starting to fall across our west-central area before dawn tomorrow.
LONG TERM
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 536 AM EST FRI DEC 8 2023
Key messages:
- No widespread, significant system snowfalls across Upper MI thru next week.
- Quick-moving low pressure brings rain and some snow Saturday. Snow potential greatest in a narrow swath over a portion of the west and central U.P., but probability of more than 2 inches of snow for now is less than 10 percent.
- 2 to 5 inches of lake enhanced and lake effect snow is likely (at least 60% chance) for areas favored by nw winds Saturday night into Sunday.
- Above normal temps to prevail on most days through next week with warmth peaking again late next week.
The slow start to establishing typical winter snow cover in Upper MI will continue. At this point in the season so far, most of Upper MI is currently running at only 25-50pct of the mean snowfall based on a Sept 1st to Dec 7th 1991-2020 mean per the Midwest Regional Climate Center. Only far eastern Upper MI is near the mean. Medium range model guidance is in good agreement in showing western N America ridging and eastern N America troffing into early next week, followed by deamplification of the flow thru late week. With the western ridge broad, a build up of arctic air will not occur in Canada. As the flow deamplifies and ridging/positive height anomalies shift downstream mid and late next week, Pacific air/anomalous warmth will spread e across southern Canada, sending temps 15-30F degrees above the long term avg during the last half of the week. With the Dec warmth to the n, above normal temps will prevail overall for Upper MI thru next week, but eastern troffing will allow for temps to fall back to at least around the early to mid Dec normals thru early next week (Sun and Tue coolest days). A notable stronger push of warming alluded to above, similar to what is currently being experienced across Upper MI, will occur a week from now. Looking beyond next week at the week before Christmas, ensembles, EPS in particular, show positive height anomalies and widespread above normal temps spread across southern Canada, the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. The latest CFSv2 points to a similar above normal temp regime, and it continues that warm pattern right thru the end of the month. However, the 00z 12/7 run of the ECMWF weeklies points toward a cooling trend late month. As for pcpn, a shortwave lifting into the Great Lakes on Sat, followed by another wave arriving from the w, will bring the only notable pcpn event from now thru all of next week. Initially, pcpn will be mostly rain with a change to snow from w to e thru Sat night as a transition to nw flow lake effect occurs. A few inches of snow will be possible across the w and n. Lingering nw flow LES will wind down Sun/Sun night. Thereafter, no significant pcpn events are expected, and thus no widespread, significant snowfalls either. In fact, pcpn/snowfall will be well below normal with very little pcpn/snow outside of the lake effect areas, and even there, snowfall thru next week will be well blo normal. A second push of colder air Mon night into Tue will bring the only other round of LES, but it will be light.
Beginning tonight, mid-level troffing will extend from Manitoba/northern Ontario to the Rockies with unphased shortwaves within in it. One wave will support sfc low pres just n of International Falls, and that low will drift ne during the night. A couple of more waves will be moving into and thru the base of the trof with one then heading ne toward the western Great Lakes by Sat morning. For Upper MI, end result will be a mostly dry night with unseasonably warm conditions for Dec. After the mild day today, cloud cover will hold temps up tonight. Min temps will be around some of the record high mins for the date across Upper MI. Here at NWS Marquette in Negaunee Township the record high min temp for Dec 9 is 32F, but temps will likely fall blo that before midnight Sat night. Rain associated with the wave lifting toward the western Great Lakes will begin to spread into the s central fcst area around 09z.
Although just 24-36hr time frame from initialization, models still show quite a bit of disagreement on the relatively compact pcpn shield developing with the wave lifting thru western Great Lakes on Sat. The regional CMC is most bullish with pcpn spreading across all of w and central Upper MI while the FV3 and ARW barely brush Schoolcraft and Luce counties. Based on consensus of recent and latest model runs, including the previous fcst, will paint 60-90pct chc of pcpn over the central and eastern fcst area with a sharp drop to no pcpn mention over far western Upper MI. Given the antecedent warmth over the area, unphased waves and positive tilt of the mid- level trof, expect most of the pcpn with this first wave to be in the form of rain on Sat, and this is shown by the downward trend in snow accumulation probabilities from the NBM. If snow occurs, it would be over central portions of Upper MI (Baraga/Marquette/Iron/Dickinson counties). Expect little accumulation (less than 1 inch with no travel impacts due to above freezing temps). That said, the recently arrived 06z HRRR/NAM paint a more concerning outcome with the sfc low tracking farther w, including a narrow mdt/hvy pcpn band developing just w of the center, basically in the aforementioned counties. Stronger forcing/dynamic cooling would also likely favor a shift to hvy/wet snow. We'll see if the upcoming 12z model runs support the 06z HRRR/NAM trend. If so, a stripe of 2-5 inches of sloppy/wet snow accumulation would certainly be possible on Sat, occurring over just a 3-5hr period. Travel impacts would also be expected. To the w, another shortwave will support a sharpening sfc trof that will sweep into western Upper MI late aftn/early evening. 850mb temps falling blo -4C will support lake enhancement. Wetbulb zero heights above 700ft AGL suggest some rain initially at low elevations near the lake as this next batch of pcpn initially arrives/develops. Snow will become steadier during the evening as the trof/wind shift passes. Fcst soundings don't show much of a favorable overlap of the upward motion with the DGZ, and that combined with temps around freezing will hold snow accumulations down during the best period of forcing. By Sun aftn, NBM 50th percentile snow accumulations are only 1.5-2 inches, which seems underdone given the period of lake enhancement. The 90th percentile is 4-5 inches in the usual highest terrain areas, and that seems like a better fit for this situation.
The trof will shift e thru Sat night, bringing lake enhanced rain/snow changing to snow. Accumulations e will be lower than over the w.
Deeper moisture departs from w to e late Sat night thru Sun morning, marking a transition to pure nw flow LES under 850mb temps of -10 to -12C. DGZ will be near the top of the convective layer and largely above the best upward motion, so SLRs will be held down a bit. With inversions at around 4kft w, LES will be light. To the e, inversions upwards of 6-7kft will support better LES and 1-3 inch snow accumulations on Sun. The lingering LES will end w to e Sun night into early Mon morning.
Next shortwave will dive se into northern Ontario and Upper MI Mon night. WAA/isentropic ascent ahead of this wave should lead to some -sn developing across the n and e Mon night, followed by nw flow LES for Tue as 850mb temps dive toward -16C. Drier air mass flowing into the area with the CAA will limit LES intensity as will the quick passage of the 850mb thermal trof, but snow accumulations in the 1-3 inch range are certainly a possibility. It will be a blustery day on Tue with gusts 20-30mph as well.
A warming and dry period will set in Wed thru the end of the week as westerlies retreat n. Warmth should peak on Thu with high temps back into the low/mid 40s F.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM EST FRI DEC 8 2023
Satellite imagery shows a break in the cloud cover over KIWD as of 1220PM EST. This break will bring VFR conditions for about an hour before heading off eastward and hitting KCMX around 3PM EST, bringing VFR conditions over there for about an hour too before heading off into Lake Superior. Otherwise, expect the general improvement from IFR/MVFR to MVFR/low-end VFR by this evening across the TAF sites. A compact low pressure moving through Lake Michigan tonight looks to bring lower cigs by very late tonight/Saturday morning across the TAF sites, with KCMX and KSAW seeing RA initially before transitioning to SN by late Saturday morning. There is a high chance (~80%) that the RA/SN will bring visby reductions as well Saturday. I'm expecting (~70% chance) KSAW to drop down to LIFR again by Saturday morning as models show the deformation band of the low close to the TAF site. KIWD and KCMX drop to MVFR/IFR, respectively, by Saturday morning.
MARINE
(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 536 AM EST FRI DEC 8 2023
With low pres tracking thru far nw MN into northern Ontario, expect se to s winds 20-30kt becoming s to sw today across Lake Superior.
Strongest winds will occur this morning with the southeasterlies.
Some gale force gusts are expected from around Whitefish Pt to Passage Island, including around the tip of the Keweenaw. SW winds will settle back to blo 20kt after midnight tonight thru Sat morning. A cold front will then sweep across Lake Superior late Sat aftn and night, bringing a wind shift to the nw 20-30kt. There is a 40-60pct chance of low end 35-40kt gales, with the greatest chc near the MN n shore and in a swath from n of the Keweenaw down to btwn Marquette and Grand Marais. The probability of gales over 40kt is about 10pct. Winds will slowly subside on Sun with the risk of gales over by sunrise on Sun. Expect winds under 25kt on Sun aftn and mostly under 20kt Sun night. Another cold front approaching on Mon will cause sw winds to ramp up to 20-30kt by late aftn, strongest w half. With passage of the front, there is a high probability (at least 90pct) of w gales 35-40kt shifting to the nw Mon night and Tue.
CLIMATE
Issued at 536 AM EST FRI DEC 8 2023
For WFO Marquette in Negaunee Township:
Record high max temp Dec 8: 44F (1984)
Record high min temp Dec 8: 33F (2015)
Dec 9: 32F (2015)
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 133 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023
SHORT TERM
(The rest of this afternoon through tonight)
Issued at 133 PM EST FRI DEC 8 2023
Key Messages: -Warm this afternoon. Some spots may flirt with 50F again, especially over the west. Some records may also be broken.
-Rain could be seen over the west-central U.P. by early Saturday morning.
We are already seeing another warm day across our area today as spots across Upper Michigan have already reported temperatures up to 50F as of 1PM EST. While mostly cloudy conditions will somewhat limit temperatures from getting much warmer across the central and east, a hole in the cloud cover currently moving over the western U.P. (as seen by satellite imagery) will likely increase temperatures a couple of degrees from what we are seeing as of the time of this writing. Therefore, there may be quite a few spots over the western U.P. that get above 50F this afternoon before cloud cover over northwestern Wisconsin moves in later this afternoon.
Thus, I'm confident (80 to 90% certain) that some high temperature records will be broken today, particularly over the west.
Expect fairly mild temperatures tonight as mostly cloudy skies dominate. As a low pressure lifts from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Lake Michigan tonight into Saturday morning, we may see some rainfall starting to fall across our west-central area before dawn tomorrow.
LONG TERM
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 536 AM EST FRI DEC 8 2023
Key messages:
- No widespread, significant system snowfalls across Upper MI thru next week.
- Quick-moving low pressure brings rain and some snow Saturday. Snow potential greatest in a narrow swath over a portion of the west and central U.P., but probability of more than 2 inches of snow for now is less than 10 percent.
- 2 to 5 inches of lake enhanced and lake effect snow is likely (at least 60% chance) for areas favored by nw winds Saturday night into Sunday.
- Above normal temps to prevail on most days through next week with warmth peaking again late next week.
The slow start to establishing typical winter snow cover in Upper MI will continue. At this point in the season so far, most of Upper MI is currently running at only 25-50pct of the mean snowfall based on a Sept 1st to Dec 7th 1991-2020 mean per the Midwest Regional Climate Center. Only far eastern Upper MI is near the mean. Medium range model guidance is in good agreement in showing western N America ridging and eastern N America troffing into early next week, followed by deamplification of the flow thru late week. With the western ridge broad, a build up of arctic air will not occur in Canada. As the flow deamplifies and ridging/positive height anomalies shift downstream mid and late next week, Pacific air/anomalous warmth will spread e across southern Canada, sending temps 15-30F degrees above the long term avg during the last half of the week. With the Dec warmth to the n, above normal temps will prevail overall for Upper MI thru next week, but eastern troffing will allow for temps to fall back to at least around the early to mid Dec normals thru early next week (Sun and Tue coolest days). A notable stronger push of warming alluded to above, similar to what is currently being experienced across Upper MI, will occur a week from now. Looking beyond next week at the week before Christmas, ensembles, EPS in particular, show positive height anomalies and widespread above normal temps spread across southern Canada, the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. The latest CFSv2 points to a similar above normal temp regime, and it continues that warm pattern right thru the end of the month. However, the 00z 12/7 run of the ECMWF weeklies points toward a cooling trend late month. As for pcpn, a shortwave lifting into the Great Lakes on Sat, followed by another wave arriving from the w, will bring the only notable pcpn event from now thru all of next week. Initially, pcpn will be mostly rain with a change to snow from w to e thru Sat night as a transition to nw flow lake effect occurs. A few inches of snow will be possible across the w and n. Lingering nw flow LES will wind down Sun/Sun night. Thereafter, no significant pcpn events are expected, and thus no widespread, significant snowfalls either. In fact, pcpn/snowfall will be well below normal with very little pcpn/snow outside of the lake effect areas, and even there, snowfall thru next week will be well blo normal. A second push of colder air Mon night into Tue will bring the only other round of LES, but it will be light.
Beginning tonight, mid-level troffing will extend from Manitoba/northern Ontario to the Rockies with unphased shortwaves within in it. One wave will support sfc low pres just n of International Falls, and that low will drift ne during the night. A couple of more waves will be moving into and thru the base of the trof with one then heading ne toward the western Great Lakes by Sat morning. For Upper MI, end result will be a mostly dry night with unseasonably warm conditions for Dec. After the mild day today, cloud cover will hold temps up tonight. Min temps will be around some of the record high mins for the date across Upper MI. Here at NWS Marquette in Negaunee Township the record high min temp for Dec 9 is 32F, but temps will likely fall blo that before midnight Sat night. Rain associated with the wave lifting toward the western Great Lakes will begin to spread into the s central fcst area around 09z.
Although just 24-36hr time frame from initialization, models still show quite a bit of disagreement on the relatively compact pcpn shield developing with the wave lifting thru western Great Lakes on Sat. The regional CMC is most bullish with pcpn spreading across all of w and central Upper MI while the FV3 and ARW barely brush Schoolcraft and Luce counties. Based on consensus of recent and latest model runs, including the previous fcst, will paint 60-90pct chc of pcpn over the central and eastern fcst area with a sharp drop to no pcpn mention over far western Upper MI. Given the antecedent warmth over the area, unphased waves and positive tilt of the mid- level trof, expect most of the pcpn with this first wave to be in the form of rain on Sat, and this is shown by the downward trend in snow accumulation probabilities from the NBM. If snow occurs, it would be over central portions of Upper MI (Baraga/Marquette/Iron/Dickinson counties). Expect little accumulation (less than 1 inch with no travel impacts due to above freezing temps). That said, the recently arrived 06z HRRR/NAM paint a more concerning outcome with the sfc low tracking farther w, including a narrow mdt/hvy pcpn band developing just w of the center, basically in the aforementioned counties. Stronger forcing/dynamic cooling would also likely favor a shift to hvy/wet snow. We'll see if the upcoming 12z model runs support the 06z HRRR/NAM trend. If so, a stripe of 2-5 inches of sloppy/wet snow accumulation would certainly be possible on Sat, occurring over just a 3-5hr period. Travel impacts would also be expected. To the w, another shortwave will support a sharpening sfc trof that will sweep into western Upper MI late aftn/early evening. 850mb temps falling blo -4C will support lake enhancement. Wetbulb zero heights above 700ft AGL suggest some rain initially at low elevations near the lake as this next batch of pcpn initially arrives/develops. Snow will become steadier during the evening as the trof/wind shift passes. Fcst soundings don't show much of a favorable overlap of the upward motion with the DGZ, and that combined with temps around freezing will hold snow accumulations down during the best period of forcing. By Sun aftn, NBM 50th percentile snow accumulations are only 1.5-2 inches, which seems underdone given the period of lake enhancement. The 90th percentile is 4-5 inches in the usual highest terrain areas, and that seems like a better fit for this situation.
The trof will shift e thru Sat night, bringing lake enhanced rain/snow changing to snow. Accumulations e will be lower than over the w.
Deeper moisture departs from w to e late Sat night thru Sun morning, marking a transition to pure nw flow LES under 850mb temps of -10 to -12C. DGZ will be near the top of the convective layer and largely above the best upward motion, so SLRs will be held down a bit. With inversions at around 4kft w, LES will be light. To the e, inversions upwards of 6-7kft will support better LES and 1-3 inch snow accumulations on Sun. The lingering LES will end w to e Sun night into early Mon morning.
Next shortwave will dive se into northern Ontario and Upper MI Mon night. WAA/isentropic ascent ahead of this wave should lead to some -sn developing across the n and e Mon night, followed by nw flow LES for Tue as 850mb temps dive toward -16C. Drier air mass flowing into the area with the CAA will limit LES intensity as will the quick passage of the 850mb thermal trof, but snow accumulations in the 1-3 inch range are certainly a possibility. It will be a blustery day on Tue with gusts 20-30mph as well.
A warming and dry period will set in Wed thru the end of the week as westerlies retreat n. Warmth should peak on Thu with high temps back into the low/mid 40s F.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM EST FRI DEC 8 2023
Satellite imagery shows a break in the cloud cover over KIWD as of 1220PM EST. This break will bring VFR conditions for about an hour before heading off eastward and hitting KCMX around 3PM EST, bringing VFR conditions over there for about an hour too before heading off into Lake Superior. Otherwise, expect the general improvement from IFR/MVFR to MVFR/low-end VFR by this evening across the TAF sites. A compact low pressure moving through Lake Michigan tonight looks to bring lower cigs by very late tonight/Saturday morning across the TAF sites, with KCMX and KSAW seeing RA initially before transitioning to SN by late Saturday morning. There is a high chance (~80%) that the RA/SN will bring visby reductions as well Saturday. I'm expecting (~70% chance) KSAW to drop down to LIFR again by Saturday morning as models show the deformation band of the low close to the TAF site. KIWD and KCMX drop to MVFR/IFR, respectively, by Saturday morning.
MARINE
(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 536 AM EST FRI DEC 8 2023
With low pres tracking thru far nw MN into northern Ontario, expect se to s winds 20-30kt becoming s to sw today across Lake Superior.
Strongest winds will occur this morning with the southeasterlies.
Some gale force gusts are expected from around Whitefish Pt to Passage Island, including around the tip of the Keweenaw. SW winds will settle back to blo 20kt after midnight tonight thru Sat morning. A cold front will then sweep across Lake Superior late Sat aftn and night, bringing a wind shift to the nw 20-30kt. There is a 40-60pct chance of low end 35-40kt gales, with the greatest chc near the MN n shore and in a swath from n of the Keweenaw down to btwn Marquette and Grand Marais. The probability of gales over 40kt is about 10pct. Winds will slowly subside on Sun with the risk of gales over by sunrise on Sun. Expect winds under 25kt on Sun aftn and mostly under 20kt Sun night. Another cold front approaching on Mon will cause sw winds to ramp up to 20-30kt by late aftn, strongest w half. With passage of the front, there is a high probability (at least 90pct) of w gales 35-40kt shifting to the nw Mon night and Tue.
CLIMATE
Issued at 536 AM EST FRI DEC 8 2023
For WFO Marquette in Negaunee Township:
Record high max temp Dec 8: 44F (1984)
Record high min temp Dec 8: 33F (2015)
Dec 9: 32F (2015)
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| GTRM4 - Superior Grand Traverse Bay, MI | 6 mi | 89 min | S 1.9G | 43°F | 29.43 | |||
| PCLM4 - Portage Canal, MI | 21 mi | 49 min | 0G | 48°F | 29.15 | |||
| KP59 | 22 mi | 38 min | SW 4.1 | 45°F | 29.41 | 41°F | ||
| BIGM4 - Big Bay, MI | 34 mi | 49 min | S 4.1G | 46°F | 29.41 | |||
| STDM4 - Stannard Rock, MI | 49 mi | 89 min | SE 21G |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCMX HOUGHTON COUNTY MEMORIAL,MI | 19 sm | 8 min | SSW 06 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 46°F | 37°F | 71% | 29.40 |
Wind History from CMX
(wind in knots)
Marquette, MI,
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