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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 905 Pm Pdt Fri Sep 22 2023
Tonight..NW wind to 10 kt until midnight becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less until midnight becoming less than 1 ft.
Sat..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain in the morning then rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..S wind 5 to 15 kt easing to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Rain in the evening then a chance of rain after midnight.
Sun..Light wind becoming se to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE wind 5 to 15 kt becoming 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Mon..SE wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Mon night..S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tue..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.

PZZ100 905 Pm Pdt Fri Sep 22 2023
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A front crosses the waters early Saturday. A stronger frontal will then move into the area Sunday night into Monday.

FXUS66 KSEW 230357 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 857 PM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023

SYNOPSIS
Upper level troughing building over the NE Pacific will kickstart an extended period of wet weather. Rain chances return on Saturday as a weak front enters followed by additional disturbances into the upcoming week. Fall-like temperatures are expected.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Forecast remains largely on track tonight. A weak system will move into the region, bringing light rain to western Washington starting early Saturday.
Clouds ahead of the system have already started to push inland along portions of the coast tonight. The remainder of the previous discussion follows below, with updates made to the aviation and marine sections. 14

For tonight, upper-level troughing will begin to progress into the region. Deterministic guidance is showing a subtle shortwave sweeping across the area late overnight. Mostly dry conditions are expected tonight but a weak front looks to draw near the coast into the early morning hours on Saturday with PoPs increasing.
Overnight lows are forecasted to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

As alluded to, a weak front is on tap to enter on Saturday. Light widespread rain is in the forecast along with much cooler temperatures, right on cue for the first day of fall. Widespread 60s are expected, anywhere from 8-12 degrees cooler than the previous day. Rain will break into showers Saturday evening before conditions gradually dry out briefly. Overnight lows are again to be in the 40s and 50s.

After somewhat of a reprieve expected late Saturday night into early Sunday, more rain is inbound. A deep low center over the NE Pacific will scoop up copious amounts of moisture under strong southwesterly flow. Here, an atmospheric river is on track to make landfall along the WA/OR coast by Sunday evening, spreading further inland by Monday morning. Ensemble and deterministic guidance shows anomalously high PWAT values >1.00" during this time. Widespread rainfall is forecasted to begin and continue well into Monday. Current 24-hr rainfall forecast for Monday includes 1-3" for the coast and Olympics. 0.5-1.0" throughout the interior lowlands with values in the lower end influenced by potential rain shadowing. 1-2" is in the forecast for the Cascades. Note, confidence in exact totals is still on the lower end at this time as the forecast could change in subsequent updates. However, confidence still remains high on this being the first prolonged moderate to heavy rainfall event in a while.
Breezy conditions are also in the forecast, particularly for the coast with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph beginning Sunday night through Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Rain chances will remain in the forecast through much of the upcoming week. NBM v4.1 has anywhere between 85-95% chance of the coast seeing rainfall >1.0" for a 24-hr period ending 5 AM Wednesday morning. 50-70% for much of the Cascades and 25-45% through the lowlands. Troughing will begin to push inland by Wednesday. However, ensemble guidance remains in disagreement on the upper-level pattern going into Thursday/Friday. Nevertheless showery and cool conditions are favorable to remain.

McMillian

AVIATION
Light westerly flow aloft continues with a shift to southerly flow expected overnight. This will maintain generally VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for the interior this evening. Increasing mid cloud deck will move over the region tonight by 09z ahead of an approaching front. This will bring some lower MVFR to IFR ceilings to the coast early evening. Light rain will begin to spread across the region by 14z at the coast and far north, and more solidly across the Puget Sound terminals later in the morning, with additional rain through the day.

KSEA...VFR evening with clear skies and light southwesterly winds. Increasing mid-level clouds with southerly winds increasing to 10 kt by 16z. MVFR ceilings increasingly likely from 18z onward through the period with light rain at times. Cullen

MARINE
A very strong low pressure system will rapidly intensify and move into the area Sunday into Monday. NBM ensemble guidance has continue to trend stronger with winds, with a 80-95% chance of gale force sustained winds and a 55-75% chance of storm force gusts across the outer coastal waters for Sunday night into early Monday morning. Given this trend, have issued a Storm Watch for the outer coastal waters for the aforementioned period, and a Gale Watch for the inner coastal waters. Additionally, gales likely develop in the Strait of Juan de Fuca as the strong pressure gradient develops across the strait. Gales are likely to continue across the coastal waters into Monday. Winds should ease up beginning Tuesday and remain below thresholds through next week.

Seas will begin to build tomorrow to 5 to 7 ft Sunday with the first frontal system, then building Sunday night into Monday up to 15-18 ft, first for the outer waters Monday then reaching the coastline Tuesday. Steep waves will also develop across Grays Harbor bar with a small craft advisory also issued there. LH/12

HYDROLOGY
The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated as needed.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon for Grays Harbor Bar.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Monday for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.

Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.

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Tacoma
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:40 AM PDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:57 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:47 PM PDT     10.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:29 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:45 PM PDT     8.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:05 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:54 PM PDT     9.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tacoma, Commencement Bay, Washington, Tide feet

Discovery Island
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Sat -- 03:25 AM PDT     -1.61 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:58 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:52 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:54 AM PDT     1.46 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:28 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:30 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:31 PM PDT     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:22 PM PDT     -0.02 knots Min Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Discovery Island, 3.3 miles NE of, Washington Current, knots

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