Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Taholah, WA

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A northwesterly oriented onshore push is underway this evening with the UIL/BLI gradient now approaching 4 millibars with gale westerlies in the strait. The upper trough responsible for this is digging southeastward across British Columbia this evening. Apart from cooler temperatures and morning cloud cover on Monday, there won't be much in the way of impacts for the CWA with precip of any consequence staying well north of the border. A rapid warming trend for Tuesday and Wednesday is still on track. Given recent performance, high temperatures for midweek may run closer to the NBM 75th percentile or higher which gives Seattle and points southward a a shot at back-to-back 90 degree days. Current forecasts run closer to the 50th percentile, but watch this space for updates as we get closer to the next warm spell. Previous discussion follows with updates to the marine and aviation portions.

Warm and dry conditions continue across the area this afternoon with temperatures generally ranging in the 80s to low 90s across the interior. Areas along the coast remain much cooler, with temperatures ranging in the 60s to low 70s under onshore flow and with stratus still present along the coast.

A brief reprieve in temperatures is expected on Monday as a positively tilted trough slides down across British Columbia and skirts western Washington. Outside of a slight chance of showers across the far Northern Cascades, the main impact from this system will be cooler temperatures, an increase in cloud cover, and an increase in onshore flow in the low levels. High temperatures on Monday will primarily be in the 70s to low 80s across the interior and in the 60s along the coast.

Conditions start to ramp up again on Tuesday as high pressure offshore starts to build into the region and a thermal trough at the surface builds northward into the area. Afternoon highs on Tuesday will rebound into the 80s for the majority of the interior lowlands, with temperatures along the coast expected to climb into the 70s to low 80s. Temperatures will continue to warm and will peak on Wednesday, with highs expected to be in the 80s to low 90s across the interior. With overnight lows generally expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s, this will bring another round of Moderate HeatRisk to the majority of the interior lowlands. This warm and dry trend will also bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions to portions of the area both Tuesday and Wednesday. More details on fire weather can be found below in the fire weather section.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Ensembles continue to have a tough time converging on solutions late in the week. At this time, Thursday looks to remain warm for much of the area outside of the coast, however there remains a decent spread in temperatures amongst the ensemble members. Guidance starts to show more of a cooling trend by Friday with an increase in onshore flow, though highs are still expected to be above normal and in the 80s for the interior lowlands. At this time, temperatures look to cool closer to seasonal norms over the weekend. 14

AVIATION
West-northwest flow aloft as upper-ridging continues offshore. Widespread VFR for majority of W WA this evening, although marine stratus may impact coastal locations given proximity. As of this writing /1930 PDT/, it has not pushed eastward enough to impact HQM. Stronger easterly push overnight will result in widespread MVFR conditions by 12-14Z Monday morning and persisting before conditions start to improve early Monday afternoon. VFR conditions resume afterward, save for HQM, which may still be affected by lingering marine stratus.

Northerly surface winds through the interior this evening with speeds 8 to 12 kt, easing overnight to generally 4 to 8 kts. KCLM seeing more westerly winds 10 to 15 knots this evening with gusts ranging 20 to 25 kts possible. Winds here may ease slightly overnight to 8 to 12 kts.

KSEA...VFR this evening but stratus is favored to return around 12Z, with MVFR expected afterward. Cigs recover to VFR by 18-20Z. NW winds this evening 8-12 kts, with the potential of some gusts up to 20 kts. Northerly winds easing to 4-8 kts by 06Z, remaining there for the rest of the TAF period.

McMillian/18

MARINE
Surface high pressure remains offshore with onshore flow throughout the area waters. Diurnally driven westerly pushes down the strait will continue over the next several days of differing magnitude. Latest guidance has shown more strength in the westerly push tonight, therefore a Gale Warning remains in effect for the Central and Eastern Strait. Northerly winds also look to increase over the coastal waters this evening along with steep seas, so A Small Craft Advisory also remains in effect well into Monday.
Thermal troughing looks to build along the coast through midweek, with periodic increases of northerly winds through the area waters.

Combined seas 6 to 8 feet look to increase to 8 to 10 feet by Monday morning. Seas will likely remain elevated throughout the first half of the week.

McMillian/18

FIRE WEATHER
A passing disturbance Monday will bring a brief relief from the very warm and dry conditions of the weekend. This system will bring much stronger onshore flow, spreading widespread clouds and cooler conditions. However, attention will then turn to the return of high pressure over the region. Expect to see afternoon RH values dip down close to critical thresholds Tuesday afternoon with a thermal trough building north over the Cascades. While some uncertainty remains with respect to how far north and west this builds, expect to see at least some east component to the surface winds near the Cascade gaps in zone 659 and perhaps portions of 657 and 658. Confidence is lower in seeing more widespread easterly wind and speeds may not be strong enough to raise fire weather concerns to critical, but this may serve to further reduce RHs. Additionally, depending on the placement of the thermal trough, expect to see a deeper mixed layer and increased instability with mixing heights potentially rising into Wednesday. While confidence in the specific timing of elevated fire weather concerns is still lower, the mid week period bears close watching for both existing incidents and for the potential for conditions to remain of concern if new ones were to begin. Looking ahead to the end of the week, expect conditions to remain warmer and drier than normal but forecast guidance continues to exhibit a large range of potential scenarios that leave confidence lower than normal. Cullen

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 6 AM PDT Monday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for Admiralty Inlet.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PDT Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.