Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vaughn, WA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Western Washington currently sits in between a trough to the east (that produced the weather this past weekend), and a ridge up the Pacific Coast to Alaska. Above the region is the polar jet bringing in drier and cooler air into the region from the north. Surface high pressure sits underneath this ridge. This will weaken the gradients to where there will be some areas of low stratus and fog this morning until the sun is able to burn it off later in the day. The fog is expected to be hit-or-miss and not widespread.

Monday will likely be the sunniest day of the week once the skies clear out late this morning into the afternoon. Winds will be very light under the high pressure and most of the cloud cover will burn off (may linger longer in the South Interior. Temperatures will peak in the mid 40s today, with lows around 30. High clouds will build back in Monday night/Tuesday as the ridge begins to move inland ahead of a trough. Tuesday is expected to remain relatively dry, but a surface trough underneath the high pressure to the south may be enough to produce a couple of light showers in parts of the region (pop chances were too low to include in this morning's forecast update).

The real change back to unsettled weather will occur on Wednesday.
A weakening shortwave trough will approach the region with increasing chances of precipitation later in the day across the entire west part of the state. This trough (from Wednesday into Thursday) is not expected to be an all day washout, as precipitation amounts are expected to be very light (with several hundredths for most areas and a few tenths in the Olympics/Pacific Coast). Temperatures will warm up a few degrees (but still stay in the 40s for highs and upper 30s for lows).

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The previously mentioned trough Wednesday will move through on Thursday with a weak surface system. The amounts of QPF again appear pretty light through the end of the day. The snow levels will be 3,500 feet in the Cascades (4,500 feet for the Olympics), and this will also keep snow accumulations light as well.

Ensembles/deterministic models show a more organized low moving into the region from Friday into the weekend. It is too early to tell how much precipitation could come frontal systems moving through with this low feature, but agreement is pretty good that we will see something move up our way towards the end of the week.
Please stay tuned for more details in future forecasts.

HPR

AVIATION
Upper level ridge over the area with the ridge axis offshore giving the area north northwesterly flow aloft. Surface high pressure remaining through at least Tuesday. Light surface gradients combined with plenty of low level moisture will create IFR or LIFR conditions especially Tuesday morning.

Real mixed bag of conditions this morning with everything from LIFR to VFR. With the light northerly flow in the lower levels these conditions will continue into the early afternoon hours with the lower conditions, LIFR and IFR, dissipating by 20z.
Mostly clear skies overnight with visibility below a mile and ceilings 200 feet or less developing over a majority of the area 09z-12z Tuesday. Conditions improving to VFR early Tuesday afternoon.

KSEA.. MVFR ceilings lowering to IFR 14z-16z. IFR ceilings continuing into midday. Slow improvement in the afternoon with VFR ceilings by 00z. LIFR ceilings and visibilities developing around 08z continuing into Tuesday morning. Light and variable wind becoming light north northeasterly this afternoon through Tuesday morning. Felton

MARINE
Surface high pressure over the waters through Tuesday will weaken Wednesday. A front will reach the area late Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure will briefly rebuild Friday. Small craft advisory winds possible over the coastal waters with the front.

Seas in the 10 to 12 foot range continuing this morning before subsiding below 10 feet this afternoon. Seas building to 10 to 12 feet again behind front Thursday night. Felton

HYDROLOGY
Precipitation with the system in the middle of the week will not be hydrologically significant. System over the weekend wetter and could push the Skokomish River up to near flood stage. Other rivers around the area rising but river flooding is not expected at this time. Felton

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until noon PST today for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.