Bena, MN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bena, MN

June 16, 2024 8:00 AM CDT (13:00 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:12 AM   Sunset 9:13 PM
Moonrise 2:54 PM   Moonset 1:09 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bena, MN
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Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 161150 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 650 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered storms are possible this afternoon and evening (~50% chance). A few storms may become strong to severe (5-15% chance) with large hail being the main threat, but damaging winds and perhaps a tornado also possible.

- Very heavy rain and potential for locally considerable flash flooding is possible (40-60% chance), especially in northeast Minnesota. Scattered strong to severe storms are possible as well (15% chance), with large hail being the main threat.

- Rain and storm chances will continue through the end of the week and into next weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The first of several rounds of heavy rain is happening right now, mainly impacting northwest Wisconsin. This initial surge of rain and embedded non-severe thunderstorms will continue northeast through the morning, eventually ending as the upper level wave moves off to the northeast. Rainfall amounts thus far have been about as expected, with higher observed amounts just over 0.7". Radar estimates suggest totals around or just over an inch may have fallen across parts of southern Price County.
All-in-all, this is transpiring as expected, and we could end up with localized amounts up to ~2" before this ends later this morning. Hydro-wise, no major concerns at this time, but some localized minor flooding still can't be ruled out.

In the wake of this first round of rain, strong southerly warm and moist air advection will bring some pretty impressive instability for this afternoon, especially so in northwest Wisconsin where MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg, possibly approaching 4000 J/kg, will lead to the potential for some strong to severe storms. As has been mentioned in previous discussions, this will be a conditional threat with strong capping aloft in place. We also have some weak subsidence aloft that negates some synoptic influence. But, models have been persistent enough about having some frontal boundaries around this afternoon, which will likely be enough to bust the cap and lead to the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening. The initial threat, and the most likely threat, will be for very large hail (2" in diameter or more) with the strong instability in place, especially with the first discrete cells that form. There's also enough veering in the low-levels, particularly northwest Wisconsin, such that a tornado can't be completely ruled out (though hodographs are not perfectly favorable for tornadic supercells). Damaging winds can't be ruled out if storms are able to organize into a line, which would be most likely in the evening.

Temperatures will be quite warm today, topping out in the mid to upper 80s for east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.
This isn't warm enough to warrant a heat advisory, but the heat could be hazardous for sensitive groups, especially for those without good access to hydration or air conditioning.

After sunset, we should lose most instability for a while, leading to perhaps a brief break in rain for many places. We then get another strong push of warm and moist air attendant with passing upper-level shortwaves that will be favorable for widespread rain and thunderstorms. This is looking like it will start off as a widespread cluster of rain and non-severe storms through mid-day Monday, then perhaps another reorganization that will favor northeast Minnesota as we go into Monday evening and night as strong low-level frontogenesis sets up. This is when we will see the greatest threat for flooding, and with excessive PWAT values around or perhaps slightly higher than 1.75" (near or at maximum climatology), we will be looking at the potential for 2-3" of rainfall (perhaps locally higher) through Tuesday, with the best potential for this just north of the Brainerd Lakes, stretching into the Iron Range, north towards International Falls, and east towards Ely. The WPC has placed this area under a moderate risk for flash flooding (40-60% chance). The latest trends suggest that the warm front will be at least somewhat transient, so that will reduce the threat for extreme flash flooding to some extent, favoring instead a broader risk for considerable flash flooding. We decided not to issue a Flash Flood Watch for this update as we continue to narrow down the area most susceptible for flash flooding, but a Flash Flood Watch will likely be needed.

In addition to the flooding threat, instability will increase again Monday night into Tuesday morning, and there will be a threat mainly for large hail with some of the thunderstorms most likely on the southern end of the rain closer to the warm front.
Couldn't rule out some strong winds as well, but right now large hail seems to be the biggest threat (5-15% chance).

There remains a threat for isolated to scattered severe storms on Tuesday as a cold front passes through, and this is still looking more likely to be a damaging wind threat moreso than any other hazard, though some large hail could be possible. We retain a slight risk (15-40% chance) for excessive rainfall from the WPC for much of the region with the combination of rain expected Monday night, then finishing off on Tuesday with the storms moving from west to east.

We are still looking to see a brief break from the active weather with high pressure on Wednesday, but looking ahead through the end of the week and next weekend, models suggest that the active pattern will continue with more rain and storm chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 650 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Fog at DLH/HIB will persist for another 1-3 hours, but is expected to lift with southerly flow increasing this morning.
Otherwise, the IFR ceilings are expected to be rather slow to lift through the morning and afternoon. This afternoon, there is a chance (~50%) for scattered thunderstorms to develop. Timing and location of these remains somewhat difficult because their development is conditional on clouds clearing out and the presence of frontal boundaries that could trigger the storms.
But, the latest guidance suggests that storms may develop around INL mid-afternoon, then spread southeast through the afternoon and evening. There is a 5-15% chance that some of these storms could be strong to severe, containing very large hail (2"+ in diameter). Damaging winds are also possible. Ceilings are expected to lift to VFR this evening. The next round of rain and storms may approach from the southwest later Sunday night.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

With plenty of moisture in place and onshore flow along the North Shore, fog has developed. We issued a Marine Dense Fog advisory through this morning where visibilities around 1-2SM are expected. Models suggest that fog may linger a bit into the afternoon, but with less confidence that it will remain dense. A brief Small Craft Advisory remains in effect this morning for parts of the North Shore this morning, where some higher waves around 4 ft may push onshore. Rain and embedded thunderstorms will persist this morning, then perhaps a brief break before chances for scattered storms (a few strong to severe; ~15% chance) redevelop this afternoon and evening. Large hail will be the main threat with these, though gusty and erratic winds will be possible as well. Otherwise, expect onshore flow for most places today (southeast to northeast winds), becoming variable tonight, then similar directions again on Monday. Winds may gust to around 15 kt today, decreasing tonight.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>145.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140- 141.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KXVG LONGVILLE MUNI,MN 24 sm27 minSSE 10G143 smOvercast Thunderstorm Mist in Vicinity 63°F63°F100%29.58
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