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FXUS63 KDLH 052340 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 540 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

DISCUSSION
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Key Messages: - Warmer than normal temperatures Thursday and Friday.
- A larger system is expected to just miss us to the east on Sunday - maintaining our chronic snow drought.

Clouds are slowly clearing from the west this afternoon. There are some returns on radar, but they are non-meteorological except up near Thunder Bay. Temperatures maintain their warmer than normal trend, but look to cool down towards the end of the weekend as a large system to our east pulls down some cold air from the north.

Before that system brings the colder air, a broad, weak low crosses to our north on Friday into Saturday. This system shouldn't do too much and will bring some light mixed precipitation to areas near KINL.

The larger system that misses us to the east on Sunday is really the only weather maker in the forecast that has any potential larger impact on our forecast area though chances of this are quite small (less than 10%). Looking through ensemble guidance there are some signals that this storm will impact NW WI, most guidance gives us a goose egg for Minnesota or 1.0" of snow or less for Wisconsin. The reason for this is the energy in the deep trough that crosses is largely rotating around the base of the trough which is far to our south in the Gulf of Mexico. By the time the system spins up, it has already crossed too far to the east even if it shoots up a meridian quickly. It does look like it will be quite the storm for the eastern Great Lakes. The biggest impact for us should be the cold air it draws out of Canada bringing our temperatures more in line with normal.

Strong high pressure builds behind this system and keeps us dry into the mid-section of the month.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

MVFR ceilings were occurring over northwest Wisconsin into the Arrowhead of Minnesota with IFR or low MVFR ceilings over parts of northwest/north central Minnesota. Clearing has been making slow but steady progress to the east over eastern Minnesota with the lower ceilings over northern Minnesota diminishing from the south. Confidence isn't particularly high that these trends will hold given warm air advection will occur through the period with a strengthening low level inversion. We expect the clearing to slow and kept KHYR under MVFR ceilings until 14Z Wednesday. We also brought ceilings back into KDLH/KHIB for a time tonight. Some fog may develop in spots as well but we did not add any visibility restrictions at this time. Conditions will trend toward VFR through the day Wednesday for most.

Low level wind shear may develop late tonight into Wednesday morning over western portions of the Northland, possibly affecting KINL/KBRD/KHIB. We left it out of the forecast for now but if confidence increases, may add with future updates.

MARINE
Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Quiet for now, but SW winds will be on the rise eventually causing small craft advisory conditions Wednesday. A low will cross Friday into Saturday causing gusty winds that may reach into gale territory. A large storm will impact the eastern Great Lakes on Sunday into Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 20 36 26 42 / 0 10 0 0 INL 19 38 25 42 / 0 0 0 0 BRD 21 42 27 46 / 0 0 0 0 HYR 19 37 25 48 / 0 10 0 0 ASX 21 39 27 46 / 0 10 0 0

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM CST Wednesday for LSZ121-140>148-150.

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