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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 240 Am Pdt Sat Sep 23 2023
Today..S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tonight..S wind 5 to 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Rain in the evening then a slight chance of showers after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..Light wind becoming se 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves less than 1 ft becoming 2 ft or less in the afternoon. Patchy fog. A chance of rain in the morning. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Sun night..SE wind 10 to 20 kt rising to 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..S wind 15 to 25 kt easing to 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft or less.
Wed..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.

PZZ100 240 Am Pdt Sat Sep 23 2023
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A weak surface trough and associated front will move onshore this morning. A surface low is expected to rapidly deepen to under 970 millibars around 600 nautical miles offshore late Sunday morning. An associated vigorous front will move onshore early Monday. A secondary vigorous front is expected to cross the waters Tuesday night.

FXUS66 KSEW 231023 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 323 AM PDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SYNOPSIS...A weak cold front moving onshore this morning is bringing scattered showers to the coast. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough continues to deepen over the northeast Pacific. This will eject two frontal systems into the Pacific Northwest Monday and Tuesday night. Heaviest rain will accompany the first frontal system on Monday with strong wind gusts along the coast also possible.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The first frontal system continues to move toward the coast this morning, likely the weakest of three main frontal features that will impact Western Washington through the upcoming weak. Scattered showers can be seen along the coast and offshore. However, as the main upper-level trough continues to deepen well offshore, this first shortwave will deamplify as it moves northeast over Washington and British Columbia. Showers will continue to move further inland through the day with several broken lines of heavier showers. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder with weak instability but this will be mostly a stratiform event in nature. Total rainfall amounts through tonight will range a couple tenths of an inch to half an inch over the North Cascades and Olympic Mountains. High temperatures will stay below normal thanks to the bouts of rain and overcast skies in the low to mid 60s.

As this first frontal system lifts off to our north and east, drier air will begin working over the area behind the cold front, decreasing intensity and coverage in rainfall with a short reprieve Saturday night into early Sunday. Patchy fog is possible Saturday night into Sunday morning thanks to the increased surface moisture and light winds. More widespread moderate rains will work their way north and east into Sunday afternoon ahead of the second and strongest of the cold fronts to cross our region. High temperatures Sunday will again range from the low to mid 60s for much of the lowlands. Could see some upper 60s to near 70-degree high temperatures across western Whatcom, Skagit, and Snohomish Counties if rainfall comes at a slower arrival and especially if any breaks of sun occur in the early afternoon.

As the main trough and embedded closed 500 mb low reach peak intensity late Sunday through early Monday, the main atmospheric river and highest water vapor concentrations move onto the Oregon and southern Washington coasts, with the highest PWATs above 1.5 inches being mostly along the southern Oregon coast. Moderate to heavy rain will slowly overspread the region into Sunday evening and Sunday night. Adjusted rainfall with slight enhancement along the coast and over the southwestern faces of the Olympics where strongest upslope flow will occur. Little change overall to forecast rainfall amounts with this heaviest period of rainfall with 2-3 inches along the coast and over the Olympics. Rainfall amounts decrease slightly over the Cascades with amounts more solidly in the 1-2 inch range with a 65-75% chance for over two inches of rainfall Monday and Tuesday. Rain shadowing keeps amounts lower over the Puget Sound Lowlands and the Seattle metro with amounts closer to an inch for Monday. Monday will once again feature highs in the low to mid 60s.

Strong winds will also work their way onshore Monday with the cold front. There is currently a high likelihood for advisory-level wind gusts along the coast and into the North Interior but duration remains less certain at this point. Will need to continue to monitor the potential for Wind Advisories for Monday for these areas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Moderate to heavy rain continues into Tuesday as a third surface low and attendant cold front intensify as another shortwave pivots through the longwave trough over the northeast Pacific. Chances for thunder remain due to the weak instability and strong dynamics of the incoming shortwave.

All said in done, total rainfall amounts through Tuesday night look to range from 4-6 inches over the coast and central/western Olympics, 2-3 inches over the Cascades, and 1-2 inches over the Puget Sound Lowlands according to the grand ensemble mean among the EPS, GEFS, and GEPS. Lowest amounts will likely sit beneath maximum rain shadowing over the San Juans, Whidbey Island, and into western Skagit/northwestern Snohomish Counties with 1-1.5 inches.

Long range ensemble guidance is still in some disagreement over how quickly the parent longwave trough deamplifies into the latter balance of the week. Stuck with the NBM with Likely to Chance rain through Friday, though there will likely be breaks in coverage during this time. Temperatures remain cool in the upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday through Friday with the main upper trough lingering somewhere over the region.

Davis

AVIATION
The flow aloft will become southwesterly over Western Washington today as a weak upper trough and associated frontal boundary move onshore later this morning. VFR ceilings under widespread mid and high level moisture will drop to MVFR coastal areas after 15Z as light rain spreads onshore. Occasional high end MVFR ceilings in areas of light rain will spread into the interior of Western Washington this afternoon as a front dissipates over the region.

KSEA...VFR through the morning as clouds gradually thicken and lower ahead of approaching front. Ceilings will occasionally cross the MVFR threshold this afternoon into early evening as light rain moves into the area. Surface winds light southerly rising to S/SW 8 to 13 knots late morning into the afternoon.

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MARINE
A much more active period lies ahead as a deep upper trough over the Gulf of Alaska steers a series of vigorous frontal systems across area waters. A weak surface trough and associated front over the coastal waters will move onshore later this morning.
This will initiate a brief increase in onshore flow before gradients turn offshore tonight and attention turns toward an area of low pressure near 44N/147W that is expected to rapidly deepen as it progresses E/NE during the day Sunday. A strong occluded front will move into the Washington offshore waters Sunday afternoon with the triple point lifting into Washington coastal waters early Monday morning before moving onshore. At this time, an extended period of gale force winds look likely across all of the coastal waters from Sunday night through Monday night. A brief period of storm force wind gusts are possible across the outer coastal waters. SE gales will likely spread to the central/east strait and northern inland waters by late Sunday night. A secondary vigorous front is expected to cross the waters in the Tuesday night time frame.

The rapidly deepening low offshore is expected to generate some large early season seas with combined seas building to 11 to 15 feet Sunday night and to 15 to 18 feet by Monday night. Seas will remain hazardous through the middle of the coming week.

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HYDROLOGY
Moderate to strong atmospheric river entering the region Sunday into early next week, with rainfall peaking in intensity Sunday night through Tuesday. Widespread rainfall amounts of at least 1-2 inches possible with 2-3 inches possible over the Cascades and 3-6 inches over the Olympic mountain river basins.
River flooding is not currently forecast thanks to the dry antecedent conditions, but attention will need to be paid to the Skokomish and also for rainfall rates over burn scars.

Davis

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Monday for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.

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Wauna
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Sat -- 06:15 AM PDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:58 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 02:11 PM PDT     11.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:31 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:21 PM PDT     7.92 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:18 PM PDT     10.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Wauna, Washington, Tide feet

West Point
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Sat -- 06:58 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:14 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:32 AM PDT     0.76 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:50 PM PDT     -0.23 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:01 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:31 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:15 PM PDT     -0.05 knots Min Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

West Point, Whidbey Island, 1.8 miles SW of, Washington Current, knots

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