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FXUS61 KCAR 021753 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1253 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Weak low pressure will track along the coast today then exit into the Maritimes tonight. High pressure will be to our north this weekend. Another low will approach Sunday and track south of the area Sunday night into Monday. A weak upper trough will remain over the area Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure remains to our north.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
12:53PM Update... Light snow continues to fall across portions of Northern Maine. Regional radars continue to show precipitation moving out of Quebec towards Maine. Rain/Snow line based on CBW data is just south of Baxter to portions of southern Aroostook county. Patchy to areas of dense fog continues with some drizzle across portions of Bangor region to Interior Downeast. Have issued an SPS for the dense fog but expecting gradual reduction of the fog. Minor tweaks to the conditions for the next several hours.

Previous discussion...
The cold frontal boundary is stalled across the forecast area this morning. A weak area of low pressure will move along the front today and exit into the Maritimes tonight. This low will support a light precip shield on its north side today. The low is supported by a fairly flat upper wave that will gain some amplitude as it crosses the area and moves into the Maritimes.
Nonetheless, lift is fairly weak and mostly in Aroostook County.

As a result, most of the precip will be north of the Katahdin region in Aroostook County. Thermal profiles will generally support snow north of a Greenville to Houlton line, but that will have to be monitored given the marginal boundary layer temps. Accumulations will be on the order of one to three inches with the higher totals at elevations above 1000 ft.
Surface temperatures will be in the lower 30s.

South of the frontal boundary, fog and low clouds can be expected today with some periods of light rain and drizzle falling out of the dense low level moisture. Temperatures are already in the lower 40s south of the front and will only rise slightly today.

For tonight, as the surface low and associated upper shortwave exit into the Maritimes, high pressure will nose southward from Quebec with cold advection under 850mb. The low level moisture/cloud cover will remain in place, but lowest levels will dry up enough to eradicate any lingering fog. temperatures will fall into the upper 20s north and lower 30s south.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Low pressure supported by an upper trough will track into the Eastern Great Lakes early Sunday as secondary low pressure develops off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Snow will spread from southwest to northeast across the area Sunday as the upper trough and lakes low approach. However, blocking over Eastern Canada and dry air held in place by high pressure to the north will make it difficult for the snow to reach far northeastern parts of the region which may remain dry on Sunday except for some spotty flurries. Light snow may finally push into the far north overnight Sunday night. Snow Sunday night may be moderate in intensity over parts of the central highlands with lighter snow over the north and rain along the coast.
The secondary low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will quickly be whisked east and out to sea Sunday night carried along by a strong southern branch jet stream. Most of the snow over the area, of light to moderate intensity, will be supported primarily by the upper trough lifting across. Some patchy light snow and flurries will linger through Monday as the weak upper trough remains held over the area by blocking to the north. Any additional accumulations early next week will be light.

Regarding winter weather headlines and snow amounts Sunday into Monday, it looks like the highest amounts will be over the central and western highland where 6 to 8 inches may fall. This is close to criteria for a winter storm warning in 12 hours, but is expected to fall over 24 hours which would put it shy of winter storm warning criteria. Will reevaluate if a watch is needed later today.
Advisories will likely eventually be needed, possibly also across the north, and in parts of the Downeast region away from the coast, where more modest amounts around 4 inches currently appear likely.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A weak upper level trough will remain over the area Monday night into Tuesday held in place by the blocking high to the north. Some patchy light snow and flurries will likely linger in this trough.
Any additional accumulations will be light. By Wednesday the trough will very slowly press south as high pressure to the north pushes some cooler drier air in from the north. A bit of light snow and flurries may linger over the highlands. The north will remain mostly cloudy, perhaps followed by partial clearing Wednesday night as the drier air continues to press in from the north. The remnants of the upper trough should finally press south of the area Thursday into Friday with high pressure pushing in from the west. Temperatures through mid-week will be cold with highs generally in the low to mid 20s north and near freezing along the coast. Lows will range from the single digits north to the teens Downeast.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: 18z TAF Update...IFR/LIFR conditions continue with MVFR at BHB. Expecting IFR/LIFR to continue with precip across the north. Gradual improvement to MVFR expected.

Previous Discussion...
IFR vis will be the predominant condition north of GNR and HUL due to snow today. The entire area will have IFR cigs much of the day. There will be area of fog towards BGR causing IFR vis this morning.

Snow tapers off later this afternoon and cigs will lift towards MVFR tonight
first towards CAR and FVE
and then slowly southward over the course of the night.

SHORT TERM: Sunday...VFR north, possibly becoming MVFR late. VFR becoming MVFR then IFR south. Light E wind.

Sunday night...IFR in snow inland and rain near the coast. Light NE wind.

Monday...IFR to MVFR. Light NE wind.

Monday night...IFR north, MVFR south. NE wind.

Tuesday...MVFR. Light NE wind.

Tuesday night...MVFR, possibly improving to VFR north. Light NE wind.

Wednesday...MVFR to VFR north. IFR to MVFR south. Light NE wind.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: No advisories are expected. South winds will shift to west this afternoon...and then to north tonight. Gusts may reach up to 20 kt tonight with the north winds.

SHORT TERM: A SCA may be needed Sunday night into Monday for NE winds gusting up to 30 kt and seas up to 5 to 6 ft. Wind and seas should be below SCA through mid-week.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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St-Bernard-de-l'ile-
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Sat -- 01:13 AM EST     1.09 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:30 AM EST     4.48 meters High Tide
Sat -- 11:44 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:13 PM EST     1.59 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 03:52 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:47 PM EST     5.22 meters High Tide
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Sat -- 12:50 AM EST     0.81 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 06:59 AM EST     4.21 meters High Tide
Sat -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:44 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:49 PM EST     1.48 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 03:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:04 PM EST     4.96 meters High Tide
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