Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fort Kent, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
11:35 PM Update...The sky is clear this hour and forecast remains on track. Only minor change was to adjust temperatures just a little to reflect colder valleys and warmer hills.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure will build across the region tonight through early Friday, then begin to exit across the Maritimes late. At the same time, low pressure lifting across the Great Lakes will draw a warm front toward the region later Friday. Diurnal clouds will dissipate early tonight leaving mostly clear skies across the forecast area overnight. Expect mostly clear skies early Friday, with clouds then increasing during the afternoon. Increasing isentropic lift in advance of the approaching warm front could also support a slight chance of rain later Friday afternoon across mostly western portions of the forecast area. Low temperatures tonight will range through the 20s north, to the upper 20s to around 30 Downeast. High temperatures Friday will generally range from the mid to upper 50s across much of the forecast area. Lower to mid 50s are expected along the Downeast coast where onshore winds from the cooler Gulf of Maine will develop.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Rain showers will spread towards the area Friday evening and continue into Saturday as surface low pressure and an upper level jet streak approaches northern Maine. Precipitation amounts will generally be light, with most locations expected to receive between one tenth and a quarter inch of rain. Advection of very mild air within the warm sector of the low will lead to above average temperatures on Saturday, particularly from Bangor to Dover- Foxcroft where a few spots may reach 70 degrees. Elsewhere, highs in the 60s are expected outside of cooler spots on the coast, higher terrain, and cooler spots of far northern Maine.

A cold front will cross the area Saturday night, with showers transitioning to snow across northern Maine before precipitation comes to an end. A few showers may linger across far northeastern areas on Sunday, but otherwise conditions will dry out as high pressure starts to build towards the area. The most significant impact will be strong wind gusts as the pressure gradient tightens between the strengthening low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and the high pressure to the west.
Clearing skies will support moderate to strong surface heating and steep low level lapse rates, helping to mix strong northwest winds aloft in excess of 40 knots towards the surface. A target of opportunity was identified with the NBM likely too low for wind gusts Sunday afternoon based on forecast soundings from multiple models. Adjustments were made to lean towards the 75th percentile wind speeds and use a higher gust factor based on similar past events. Aside from the winds, temperatures will be much cooler and slightly below average with highs in the 40s to low 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Surface and upper level ridging builds towards the area Sunday night into Monday with mostly clear skies and moderating temperatures expected. High temperatures may be slightly warmer than advertised by the NBM on Monday, but confidence was too low for any notable adjustment. Ridging breaks down Monday night into Tuesday as a shortwave and surface low tracks across the Great Lakes into southern Quebec. Guidance is in relatively good agreement that a secondary low will form along the coast as the primary occludes. This is not expected to be a significant rain maker with model consensus QPF ranging from a tenth to half an inch, with an average around a quarter inch.

High pressure is then expected to build in Wednesday into Wednesday night and move east of the area on Thursday.
Differences in timing are mainly responsible for continued slight chance PoPs during this period, but an approximately 24 hour dry period is likely Wednesday into Thursday. Consensus guidance generally supports near normal temperatures during the middle of next week.

AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions tonight through Friday. A slight chance of rain Friday afternoon. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west 5 to 10 knots tonight. West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest/south around 10 knots Friday.

SHORT TERM: Friday Night-Saturday...Becoming MVFR to IFR with -SHRA. Winds S 5-15 kts, gusts to 20 kts. LLWS possible Saturday.

Saturday Night...Periods of MVFR possible at Aroostook Terminals with -SHRA. Otherwise VFR. S winds 5-15 kts, becoming W-NW late.

Sunday...VFR. Brief MVFR possible at Aroostook terminals with VCSH rain and snow showers. NW winds 15-25 kts, gusting 25-40 kts.

Sunday Night-Monday...VFR. Winds NW 5-15 kts, gusting 20-30 kts Sunday night.

Monday Night-Tuesday...VFR, becoming MVFR to IFR with -SHRA.
Light winds, becoming SE at 5-15 kts.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Friday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will increase to levels sufficient for a Small Craft Advisory Friday night into Saturday, persisting through much of the weekend. A southerly swell will develop around this time with a period of 7 to 9 seconds.
Looking ahead, winds and seas fall below advisory levels for Monday and Tuesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.