Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Kent, ME

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 7:40PM Thursday August 22, 2019 2:19 PM EDT (18:19 UTC) Moonrise 11:01PMMoonset 12:45PM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Kent, ME
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location: 47.38, -70.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 221602
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
1202 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the area today. The cold front will
exit across the gulf of maine tonight into Friday. High
pressure will build across the region Saturday through Tuesday.

A frontal system will approach the region later Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
1200 pm update...

ceilings continue to increase across the area. With downeast
maine becoming partly sunny. Breaks are also showing across
northern maine as well. Made minor adjustments to skycon and
hrly temps otherwise previous forecast remains on track.

Previous discussion...

sctd tstms may contain strong wind gusts this afternoon into
the early evening.

The latest radar trends showed batch of showers across the
eastern areas pushing into new brunswick. Another batch of
showers and sctd tstms in quebec were moving to ene. The latest
hrrr showed this activity weakening as it runs into a more
stable airmass currently in place across the region. Low clouds
and fog around this morning looks to hold in through at least
mid morning, before starting to lift and break out. The latest
rap and hrrr show the warm front lifting to the N by late
morning W the central and southern sections breaking into the
warm sector W some heating. This will help to allow for
destabilization as sfc winds veer to the sw. Further n, airmass
will take some time to destabilize. Temps are expected to rise
quickly into the low mid 80s.

A blend of the NAM rap and hrrr shows a pre-frontal trof out
ahead of the cold front moving across the region by the
afternoon. This feature will be the focus for tstms to develop
across the N and W and the migrate SE during the afternoon into
the evening. The areas to focus on for any organized tstm
development will be from the houlton- millinocket region down
into hancock and washington county. CAPE potential, especially
mucape is forecast to be in the range of 800-1200 joules.

0-3 0-6km shear 30+ kts W a strong upper jet moving across the
area this afternoon. Lapse rates in the llvls do steepen to >
8.0 c km in the aforementioned areas along W mid level lapse
rates hitting near 6.5 c km. This should be enough to aid in
convective development sufficient updrafts. Given the lack of
sufficient moisture through 700 mbs, thinking is that any near
severe tstms will be isold. The main threat will be strong wind
gusts and this wording has been added to the forecast. SPC has
this region in a marginal risk for severe tstms.

The activity will wind down after 9 pm W the cold front sliding
across the region. Drier and cooler air will start filtering
into the region W winds shifting to the wnw. Decided to hold off
on mention of fog as the blyr will stayed mixed. Overnight temps
will be some 5 to 10 degrees cooler than readings ATTM this
morning.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
The cold upper trough and building surface high from canada will
be the dominant features. Temperatures in this regime will be
cooler than normal with low humidity as dew points fall into the
40s in northern zones. Expect a decent amount of cumulus clouds
on Friday. Can't rule out some fairly low topped showers... To
around 600mb... On Friday afternoon, but will only paint pops in
northern aroostook and the north woods at this time. The upper
level trough axis crosses Friday night into Saturday morning.

Will increase cloud cover during this period... Mostly in
northern zones... But not include pops. Can't rule out a few
sprinkles. On Saturday, the upper trough will generate more
cloud cover than Friday with a slight chance of some sprinkles
along the eastern border. For Saturday night, the cold air mass
will be fully in place with clear skies and light winds. Lows in
the upper 30s to lower 40s are expected in northern zones and
frost is not totally out of question. Further south towards
bangor, lows won't be a chilly with upper 40s to lower 50s
anticipated. Patchy river lake fog will occur later in the
night.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
This period is currently expected to feature fair weather under
a building blocking ridge. As the block evolves into a rex
block, there is some question as to where the closed upper low
migrating under the block will end up, but will not include any
significant pops now. Development of an inverted trough towards
the coast would be the worst case scenario. Temperatures will
slowly recover towards normal readings by Tuesday or Wednesday.

Nights will continue to be on the chilly side Sunday and Monday
nights with this dry canadian air mass. The block breaks down
later Wednesday into Thursday. A warm occlusion will eventually
cross the area by Thursday.

Aviation 16z Thursday through Monday
Near term: ifr lifr this morning W stratus and fog across the
air fields. Conditions will improve toVFR for kbgr and kbhb
by mid-late morning. The northern terminals will take a bit more
time to improve toVFR til early afternoon. This will limit the
tstm threat north of kpqi. South of kpqi, tstms may contain
strong wind gusts to 40+ kts. Winds will be from the SW at 10
kts or so.

Vfr all terminals tonight W some patchy fog this evening which
could bring vsbys down to MVFR briefly. Any fog should clear out
w winds shifting to the wnw.

Short term:
Thursday night... Chance of ifr along the coast in the
evening... OtherwiseVFR
Friday...VFR
Friday night into Saturday morning... MVFR CIGS tempo ifr cigs
north of hul... OtherwiseVFR
Saturday afternoon into Monday...VFR outside of patchy shallow
fog around sunrise

Marine
Near term: S winds to turn to the SW this afternoon W speeds of
10 kts or so. Dense fog will burn off by early afternoon as the
winds increase. There is a risk of a TSTM or two into early
evening. Winds will turn to the W tonight as the cold front
moves into the waters. Seas of 2 ft will build to 3 ft W the
outer zones possibly reaching 4 ft. Local wave model was used
for the winds
short term: fog will depart the waters Thursday night and
probably not return through the rest of the period. Winds will
pick up Saturday night with some gusts to 20 kts, but no
advisory is expected. A low pressure system may be forming over
the atlantic south of the gulf of maine Monday into Tuesday. The
evolution and track of this system remains very uncertain, but
has potential to cause elevated winds and seas.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Hewitt norton
short term... Mcw
long term... Mcw
aviation... Hewitt norton mcw
marine... Hewitt norton mcw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Clayton Lake, ME67 mi63 minVar 4 mi72°F62°F72%1006.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K40B

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Last 24hrS8553--2CalmCalmCalmCalm----------------2--6
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1 day ago--46
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4CalmCalmCalm----------------CalmCalm--3S6
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33Calm4----------------CalmCalmCalm----5
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Tide / Current Tables for Traverse St-Roch, Quebec
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Traverse St-Roch
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Thu -- 03:16 AM EDT     4.69 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:06 AM EDT     7.23 meters High Tide
Thu -- 12:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:28 PM EDT     4.75 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:31 PM EDT     7.57 meters High Tide
Thu -- 11:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.15.554.74.85.46.16.677.27.16.76.25.65.14.84.85.266.77.27.57.57.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cap Aux Oies, Quebec
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Cap Aux Oies
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Thu -- 02:56 AM EDT     1.25 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:01 AM EDT     4.37 meters High Tide
Thu -- 12:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     1.34 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:27 PM EDT     4.59 meters High Tide
Thu -- 11:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.21.51.31.62.233.74.24.44.23.83.12.41.71.41.52.12.93.64.24.54.54.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.