Sunrise 5:00 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 8:24 AM   Moonset 12:42 AM

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FXUS61 KCAR 121347 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 947 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains across the region today, then exits across the Maritimes Monday. A storm system approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday, crosses the region Wednesday, then exits across the Maritimes Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Update...
Just high level thin cirrus across much of the region at this time, so lowered cloud percentages a bit this morning.
Otherwise, no significant changes to current forecast.

Previous discussion...
An upper level low remains over the area while surface high pressure centered over the Maritimes continues to ridge over the forecast area. The very dry surface high is the dominant feature as no shower activity is anticipated and winds will be light. While an area of stratocumulus has slowly advected westward out of the forecast area this morning, there will be enough moisture in the H8 to H7 layer to generate scattered to occasionally broken fair weather cumulus fields this afternoon.
A very deep mixed layer is expected today and that led to increases in the high temp forecast into the low to mid 60s except near the coast where a sea breeze will develop in the afternoon. The mixing also led to reductions in the dew points and afternoon relative humidity.

For tonight, the upper level low fills and upper ridging builds from the west. Clear skies and light winds will promote good radiational cooling under a steep and shallow inversion. Do not expect any frost headlines given that the zones active in the frost/freeze program are primarily near Bangor and Downeast where lows will be near 40F. Further north, some patchy frost can be expected with lows in the mid to upper 30s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure begins to slide east over the Maritimes on Monday.
This will mean return southerly flow setting up over the area.
With at least partial sunshine, went a bit above NBM guidance for lower elevations in central and northern areas. Expecting highs in the mid to upper 60s for these areas. Went a bit below NBM values for coastal areas due to onshore flow, resulting in 50s there. Highs will be in the lower to mid 60s for the Bangor region and Interior Downeast.

A warm front will lift approach the area Monday night and cross on Tuesday. A cold front will then move in from the northwest later Tuesday. This will bring rain to areas north and west of the Katahdin region, with lesser chances of showers to the south and east. Given onshore flow and mostly cloudy skies, there will not be enough instability for thunder. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 50s to near 60 degrees.

The cold front will make some more progress further south and east Tuesday night, and waves will start to ride the front. This will increase the threat of showers and steadier rain further southeast. Patchy to areas of fog will also be possible Tuesday night with moisture around and relatively light winds.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The front will still be nearby on Wednesday with weak waves riding along it. The overrunning from this setup will likely bring a period of rain across the area during the day Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a low pressure system will develop near the Mid- Atlantic coast. Models have come into better agreement with this low tracking east-northeastward offshore Wednesday night and Thursday. This will shift rain activity southward with gradually decreasing PoPs. High pressure builds in Thursday night and Friday, with temperatures undergoing a warming trend. Another system will approach from the west over the weekend with the threat of showers. However, there are still significant timing differences amongst model guidance, so stuck with NBM PoPs.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR with light winds at all terminals.

SHORT TERM: Monday...VFR at all terminals. S winds 5-10 kts.

Monday Night and Tuesday...Trending to MVFR with showers/rain.
IFR or lower possible at BGR and Downeast terminals Monday night and early Tuesday AM with patchy fog. S winds 5-10 kts Monday night, increasing to 10-15 kts on Tuesday with gusts to 20-25 kts.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR. S to SE winds 5-10 kts. Showers/rain/patchy fog.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. BCFG early AM at BGR and Downeast terminals. Light N winds.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: No significant weather is expected. No fog is forecast. Seas will be generally 2 feet or less. Light NE winds will become variable this afternoon and then southwesterly tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through Monday night. Patchy fog could reduce visibility on the waters Monday night. Seas and wind gusts build to around SCA criteria Tuesday into Tuesday night, before subsiding on Wednesday. Rain and fog could reduce visibility Tuesday night through early Thursday morning.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

St-Bernard-de-l'ile-
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:30 AM EDT     1.09 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 05:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:59 AM EDT     5.74 meters High Tide
Sun -- 08:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:16 PM EDT     0.69 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:38 PM EDT     4.67 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St-Bernard-de-l'ile-, Quebec, Tide feet

Cap Aux Oies
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:06 AM EDT     0.90 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 05:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:15 AM EDT     5.54 meters High Tide
Sun -- 08:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:52 PM EDT     0.46 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 08:00 PM EDT     4.40 meters High Tide
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cap Aux Oies, Quebec, Tide feet

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