Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Portland, ND
December 10, 2023 3:46 AM CST (09:46 UTC)
Sunrise 8:04AM Sunset 4:37PM Moonrise 5:38AM Moonset 2:50PM
Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 100929 AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 329 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023
KEY MESSAGES
-Patchy Dense Fog will be possible in the Devils Lake Basin through mid morning. Warmer temperatures, with recent snowfall has created the fog and is reducing visibilities down to a quarter of a mile at times.
-Quiet day on Sunday, with temperatures warming into the 20s in the north and the lower 30s in the southern Red River Valley.
-Surface trough moves across southern Canada Monday bringing a trailing cold front across North Dakota and Minnesota. Windy conditions along and behind the front combined with recent snowfall bring the potential (<20% chance) for Patchy Blowing/Drifting Snow during the afternoon hours on Monday and continuing through Tuesday morning. Visibilities may be restricted at times.
Slight chance (20%) for snow showers along the front as it passes through.
-Warm up as we approach the mid week, with quiet and dry conditions expected across the Northern Plains.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 328 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023
Current satellite has a large area of low stratus across the Red River Valley and northwestern Minnesota. It has stalled out, but should start to slowly shift eastward as we progress through the morning. Patchy dense fog has also developed by the Turtle Mountains and has spread into the Devils Lake Basin. The warmer temperatures over the saturated ground levels (from the snowpack) has helped develop that fog further. Once sun rises the fog will start to diminish and visibilities should improve. Otherwise, areas that experience patchy fog may see visibilities drop to a quarter of a mile at times.
The rest of today, will be partly cloudy with temperatures getting into the 20s to lower 30s. Warmest temperatures will be in the southern Red River Valley. As we progress into Sunday night and Monday morning a shortwave moves across southern Canada bringing weak moisture and synoptic/frontogentic forcing to eastern ND and NW MN. The cold front associated with the system begins to track into the Devils Lake Basin and north central ND by Monday morning, with it spreading eastward by the afternoon and evening. Slight chances (20%) for snow showers across the region Monday afternoon and into Tuesday. Winds will be breezy out of the west as the front passes through the area. Strongest winds will be tied to the frontal passage, with up to 40kt gusts possible (30-40%) in eastern ND. The recent snowpack is not fully crusted over and some of it could be lofted into the air bringing patchy blowing/drifting snow to the region. Chances are on the lower end (<20%) since we don't have strong CAA coming behind the front and the temperatures are in the upper 20s to lower 30s for highs. In order to get areas of blowing snow we would need colder temperatures and a sharper gradient move through the area. However, any area that sees stronger winds with the isolated snow showers could see visibility reductions at times to a couple miles. We will continue to monitor the winds and the patchy blowing/drifting snow Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning.
Post Tuesday morning, temperatures begin to rebound (especially where snowpack is limited. A ridge builds into the region ushering in drier and quiet conditions. Temperatures reach their peak on Thursday/Friday with highs in the lower 40s where snowpack is limited and the low to mid 30s where the higher snowpack is located (Devils Lake Basin and the northern Red River Valley. NW flow in central Canada by the end of the long term may introduce a shortwave or two to the northern plains next weekend. However, uncertainty arises with these chances as models are continuing to show the ridge dominating across the region.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1045 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023
Look for gradual improvement across the region tonight, with VFR conditions at KDVL spreading into the Red River Valley just after midnight to include KGFK and KFAR. Winds have diminished and will begin shifting to the west through the overnight hours.
Stratus is expected to persist a bit longer at KTVF and KBJI, with MVFR CIGs expected at KTVF and IFR to MVFR CIGs at KBJI.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 329 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023
KEY MESSAGES
-Patchy Dense Fog will be possible in the Devils Lake Basin through mid morning. Warmer temperatures, with recent snowfall has created the fog and is reducing visibilities down to a quarter of a mile at times.
-Quiet day on Sunday, with temperatures warming into the 20s in the north and the lower 30s in the southern Red River Valley.
-Surface trough moves across southern Canada Monday bringing a trailing cold front across North Dakota and Minnesota. Windy conditions along and behind the front combined with recent snowfall bring the potential (<20% chance) for Patchy Blowing/Drifting Snow during the afternoon hours on Monday and continuing through Tuesday morning. Visibilities may be restricted at times.
Slight chance (20%) for snow showers along the front as it passes through.
-Warm up as we approach the mid week, with quiet and dry conditions expected across the Northern Plains.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 328 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023
Current satellite has a large area of low stratus across the Red River Valley and northwestern Minnesota. It has stalled out, but should start to slowly shift eastward as we progress through the morning. Patchy dense fog has also developed by the Turtle Mountains and has spread into the Devils Lake Basin. The warmer temperatures over the saturated ground levels (from the snowpack) has helped develop that fog further. Once sun rises the fog will start to diminish and visibilities should improve. Otherwise, areas that experience patchy fog may see visibilities drop to a quarter of a mile at times.
The rest of today, will be partly cloudy with temperatures getting into the 20s to lower 30s. Warmest temperatures will be in the southern Red River Valley. As we progress into Sunday night and Monday morning a shortwave moves across southern Canada bringing weak moisture and synoptic/frontogentic forcing to eastern ND and NW MN. The cold front associated with the system begins to track into the Devils Lake Basin and north central ND by Monday morning, with it spreading eastward by the afternoon and evening. Slight chances (20%) for snow showers across the region Monday afternoon and into Tuesday. Winds will be breezy out of the west as the front passes through the area. Strongest winds will be tied to the frontal passage, with up to 40kt gusts possible (30-40%) in eastern ND. The recent snowpack is not fully crusted over and some of it could be lofted into the air bringing patchy blowing/drifting snow to the region. Chances are on the lower end (<20%) since we don't have strong CAA coming behind the front and the temperatures are in the upper 20s to lower 30s for highs. In order to get areas of blowing snow we would need colder temperatures and a sharper gradient move through the area. However, any area that sees stronger winds with the isolated snow showers could see visibility reductions at times to a couple miles. We will continue to monitor the winds and the patchy blowing/drifting snow Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning.
Post Tuesday morning, temperatures begin to rebound (especially where snowpack is limited. A ridge builds into the region ushering in drier and quiet conditions. Temperatures reach their peak on Thursday/Friday with highs in the lower 40s where snowpack is limited and the low to mid 30s where the higher snowpack is located (Devils Lake Basin and the northern Red River Valley. NW flow in central Canada by the end of the long term may introduce a shortwave or two to the northern plains next weekend. However, uncertainty arises with these chances as models are continuing to show the ridge dominating across the region.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1045 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023
Look for gradual improvement across the region tonight, with VFR conditions at KDVL spreading into the Red River Valley just after midnight to include KGFK and KFAR. Winds have diminished and will begin shifting to the west through the overnight hours.
Stratus is expected to persist a bit longer at KTVF and KBJI, with MVFR CIGs expected at KTVF and IFR to MVFR CIGs at KBJI.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.
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