Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Portland, ND

DISCUSSION
Issued at 319 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Synopsis

Generally weak zonal flow aloft current dominates the Northern Plains, with broad upper troughing influencing portions of the Upper Midwest. This troughing aloft and lingering weak cold air advection continues a low chance for light snow/flurries near Lake of the Woods area through this afternoon.

Tonight into Wednesday morning, fog may develop. Relatively highest chance for fog to develop resides in Devils Lake basin into the upper Sheyenne River Valley, but the potential for fog also exists in portions of Minnesota outside of the Red River Valley. Some fog may be dense at times.

The remainder of this week, overall weak flow aloft and upper ridging over the Northern Plains / Upper Midwest is forecast as split flow regime dominates the majority of MEX/CAN/CONUS.
Influence from upper ridging aloft will promote above average temperatures, including well above freezing temperatures in some locations. More details on this below.

Headed into next week, all ensemble suites agree in some degree of southwesterly flow aloft over the Plains and Upper Midwest as upper troughing digs near the Pacific coast. This may encourage a more active precipitation pattern - however, uncertainty abounds in this potential for our region locally. More details on this below.

Above average temperatures

There remains high confidence in continued above average temperatures, including well above freezing temperatures for several days this week, potentially into next week. Areas that have very little to no snowpack in southeast ND will likely see warmest temperatures forecast into the 40s, potentially breaking into the 50s Friday through Sunday.

Areas still holding on to a snowpack in northeast ND and within MN will still be above average, as well as several days forecast above freezing. This is particularly true Friday though Sunday as well.

This warmth may extend into next week, although confidence diminishes due to uncertainty in more refined synoptic evolution over our region. Uncertainty in temperatures also stems from lowered confidence in cloud forecast, with cloudier scenarios keeping temperatures closer to the freezing mark.

These several days of above freezing temperatures through the weekend into next week will continue to erode the remaining snowpack, including some locations in southeast ND seeing a complete degradation in remaining snowpack.

Guidance from the National Water Center (e.g. accumulated heating degree days) indicates this warmth may create a response in river ice within tributaries of the southern Red River basin next week. However, at this time there are no hydrological impacts anticipated from potential flooding via snowmelt - mainly due to a general lack of snow water equivalent in the southern Red River Basin. Still, should river ice start to break up in some tributaries, we will need to monitor potential for ice jam-type issues. This is a low confidence, low chance scenario, though.

Uncertainty in hydrological response to potentially continue warmth limits predictability deeper into next week, especially in regard to potential precipitation next week or beyond.


Pattern change next week

As mentioned above, all ensemble suites agree in some degree of southwesterly flow aloft over the Plains and Upper Midwest as upper troughing digs near the Pacific coast. This typically brings a more active precipitation pattern to these regions.
However, the location, strength, and orientation of upstream troughing as well as downstream ridging will greatly influence how eventual synoptic evolution of energy/moisture emanates into the Plains and Upper Midwest. This greatly lowers predictability in potential amount and location of precipitation, including accumulating snow, thus lowers confidence greatly in potential for impacts.

A large number of potential solutions exists next week, ranging from several bouts of quick moving waves and associated snow/rain/wintry mix, to very little precipitation due to misalignment of synoptic wave ejections out of the Western upper trough.

Ultimately to say, while the general expected pattern might promote active precipitation, confidence in this actually happening is quite low.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 548 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Ceilings and visibility reductions from fog are the main aviation hazards through this TAF period. A deck of MVFR stratus has been parked over KTVF and KBJI, with KGFK riding the edge this afternoon. Into this evening, we should see clearing at KGFK, with KTVF and KBJI remaining stuck under MVFR ceilings. As we go into tonight, fog is expected to develop. However, its coverage and exact location remains uncertain. Therefore, added in lower MVFR visibilities at all sites for several hours Wednesday morning. At sites such as KDVL and KBJI, where confidence in fog is a bit higher, IFR visibilities were added, and ceilings were substituted for IFR vertical visibilities.
Visibilities will improve late morning as fog burns off.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.