Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hunts Point, WA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Satellite imagery shows no cloud cover over Western Washington this morning. ASOS picking up smoke layer between 5000 and 7000 feet. Smoke layer acting like cloud cover keeping temperatures mild overnight, in the mid 50s to mid 60s at 2 am/09Z.

Upper level ridge over Western Washington through Thursday.
Ridge axis offshore moving over the area Thursday afternoon. In the lower levels thermally induced surface trough wobbling between the coast in the overnight hours and inland during the afternoon. Shallow inversions each morning easily broken by the daytime heating allowing the smoke aloft to mix down to the surface. Light northeasterly flow in the lower levels also pulling in a little wildfire smoke from Eastern Washington and British Columbia. In addition to the reduced air quality through Thursday, smoke thick enough to take a few degrees ( 3 to 5 ) off the maximum temperatures both today and Thursday.
Highs in the 80s and lower 90s inland and mid 70s to lower 80s along the coast. Lows in the 50s and lower 60s. Heat advisory goes into effect at 10 am/17Z this morning and will remain in effect through 10 pm/05Z Thursday evening.

Upper level ridge axis shifting east of the Cascades Thursday night. Low level flow turning weakly onshore. Marine air filtering into the interior by sunrise but the push is weak enough where stratus probably not making it east of Puget Sound. Lows in the 50s and lower 60s.

Weak low level onshore Friday. Even though the upper level ridge axis is east of the Cascades, 500 mb heights over Western Washington still in the mid to upper 580 dms. Normally with a weak marine push scenario would look for high temperatures to cool by 5 to 10 degrees but with the highs being inhibited today and Thursday by smoke cooling on Friday will be minimal, less than 5 degrees for the interior. Highs cooling down along the coast into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Highs inland in the upper 70s to upper 80s. If the marine push weakens in future model runs, heat advisory will need to be extended into Friday.
The weak push also brings into question how much improvement there will be in air quality Friday. The weaker the push the more the degraded air quality hangs around. Felton

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Good consistency in the extended models with westerly flow aloft over Western Washington into the middle of next week.
Upper level low well to the northwest lowering 500 mb heights over the area to around 580 dms by Monday. Varying degrees of onshore flow through the period. Stratus developing along the coast in the evening hours will make a run at Puget Sound each morning but most likely will fall short. Saturday looks to be the warmest day with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s inland and near 70 coast. Sunday through Tuesday a stretch of normal temperatures with highs in the 70s and lower 80s inland and mid to upper 60s coast. Felton

AVIATION
An upper level ridge will remain in place over the terminals through the TAF forecast, with a thermal trough along the coast. Both will not shift inland until late Thursday/Friday. Winds aloft are light west or northwest, with surface winds changing from variable/northeast this morning under 5 kt to north/northwest at 5- 10 kt today. Main concern remains smoke from fires in eastern WA transiting over the Cascade crest. While an inversion will help clean up some smoke near the surface this morning, daytime heating will likely lead to another mixing of smoke down to the surface for most interior terminals. The highest impacts are likely going to be from south Puget Sound terminals into the south interior, where there is a 30-40% chance of MVFR visibilities throughout the day.
The smoke may limit both horizontal and slant-range visibilities.
Additionally, there is also a 40% chance of IFR (20% chance of LIFR)
ceilings for Pacific Coast terminals this morning, where clouds inland are more likely to be scattered and in VFR.

KSEA...Smoke likely to linger in the TAF period, with the highest chances of MVFR impacts at the terminal from smoke from 15Z-05Z Thursday. Outside of this, VFR conditions are generally anticipated with again some impacts to slant-range visibilities due to the smoke. Ceilings unlikely to produce impacts this morning. Northeast winds at 5 kt will shift to the north 5-10 kt in the afternoon.

HPR

MARINE
High pressure will remain largely offshore through midweek with a thermal trough along the coast, that will begin to shift inland Thursday. Main concern in the short-term remains choppy seas for the coastal waters, with more seas at 6-8 ft at 6 or 7 seconds likely today. The current small craft advisory was extended through tonight with increased confidence in choppy seas, and for the potential for them to find their way towards the coast. Winds will primarily remain below small craft criteria, but it will likely get breezy in the outer coastal waters today with gusts approaching 20 kt. A trough/low pressure system will replace the ridge/thermal trough Friday into the weekend. This setup will produce diurnal pushes through the Strait of Juan de Fuca, as well as some breezy northwest winds for portions of the coastal waters. Stay tuned for updates on potential impacts with this system going into the weekend.

Seas 4 to 6 ft for the far inner waters, and 6 to 8 ft for the outer coastal waters with short periods through the end of the week.
Periods are likely to remain short at 6 to 8 seconds into early next week, with seas ranging from 4 to 6 ft and 6 to 8 ft between the interior/far outer coastal waters.

HPR

FIRE WEATHER
Elevated fire weather concerns across the area the next couple of days with warm and dry weather. Smoke layer taking a few degrees off the maximum temperatures which in turn makes for higher minimum relative humidity values in the afternoon.
Instead of dropping into the teens in the drier locations minimum RH values staying around 30 percent the next couple of days. While no significant wind or instability is expected through Thursday maximum caution over new fire starts still should be emphasized.

The thermally induced trough will shift into Eastern Washington Thursday night. Some uncertainty still remains over potential instability and incoming wind in combination with the eastward movement of the thermal trough which may briefly promote fire growth late Thursday into early Friday. Hot and dry conditions may hold Friday east of the Puget Sound. Increased onshore flow Saturday into Sunday is expected to bring cooler temperatures and increased moisture with healthier humidity recoveries across the region.

In addition, north to east winds through Thursday will bring in wildfire smoke from Eastern Washington and British Columbia.
This will cause localized impacts to fire operations at times.
Felton

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PDT Thursday for City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area- Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca- Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County- Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades- Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula- Island County-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County- Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills.

Air Quality Alert until 5 PM PDT Thursday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County- Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-City of Seattle- Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County- Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County- Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades- Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula- Grays Harbor County Coast-Lower Chehalis River Valley- Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley- Northern Hood Canal-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound- Olympics-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area- Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.