Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Turtle Lake, MT
July 2, 2024 11:42 PM MDT (05:42 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:40 AM Sunset 9:42 PM Moonrise 1:35 AM Moonset 6:04 PM |
FXUS65 KMSO 021933 AFDMSO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 133 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
...Increasing Confidence for a July 5-12 Heatwave...
DISCUSSION
Disturbances continue to pass through the northwesterly flow aloft, and combined with above-average atmospheric moisture, they will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms today and Wednesday. The main focus for storms this afternoon is in Flathead and Lake counties and in the Glacier Region, where radar projections show storms clustering at least through this evening. Some storms are expected to linger overnight.
On Wednesday, thunderstorm coverage will expand to include all of western Montana and the Clearwater Mountains. Model guidance indicates a more defined shortwave trough passage, bringing modest atmospheric instability (CAPE 100-250 J/kg) and lift for shower and storm development. Similar to today, the primary focus for shower and storm activity will be in Flathead County and Glacier Park, with 24-hour probabilities for 0.25 inches of precipitation reaching 60%.
On Independence Day, Thursday, a general drying trend is expected across the area, with isolated showers and storms developing along the divide. Highs will warm into the 70s and 80s across western Montana and into the lower 90s in the lower valleys of north-central Idaho under mostly clear skies.
Confidence is high for a hot and dry pattern from Friday into the weekend and beyond. Ensemble models strongly agree (>90% of members) that a high-amplitude ridge will move across the Pacific Northwest from Friday into Sunday, with the ridge axis shifting over the Northern Rockies by next week. Ensembles have been indicating a longer-duration heatwave across the lower elevations of Idaho, where excessive heat watches are now in effect. This trend is well-reflected in the NBM guidance, with probabilities for temperatures of 100F or greater exceeding 80% in Orofino and Riggins each day between July 6 and 10. Several days of temperatures between 90-95F or greater will also impact valley areas of western Montana.
AVIATION
Satellite imagery this afternoon reveals cumulus buildups in the Northern Rockies and thunderstorms passing through northwest Montana. Radar projections indicate most thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will concentrate near KGPI and extend south and east through the Glacier Region. The strongest storms are expected to produce heavy rain.
The next shortwave trough is on track to reach the region overnight, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms, particularly to northwest Montana. The extra rain today will increase the chance of fog, especially at KGPI on Wednesday morning. This disturbance, combined with above-average atmospheric moisture, is expected to increase thunderstorm coverage across most of western Montana on Wednesday afternoon.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
ID...Excessive Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday evening for Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region...
Orofino/Grangeville Region.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 133 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
...Increasing Confidence for a July 5-12 Heatwave...
DISCUSSION
Disturbances continue to pass through the northwesterly flow aloft, and combined with above-average atmospheric moisture, they will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms today and Wednesday. The main focus for storms this afternoon is in Flathead and Lake counties and in the Glacier Region, where radar projections show storms clustering at least through this evening. Some storms are expected to linger overnight.
On Wednesday, thunderstorm coverage will expand to include all of western Montana and the Clearwater Mountains. Model guidance indicates a more defined shortwave trough passage, bringing modest atmospheric instability (CAPE 100-250 J/kg) and lift for shower and storm development. Similar to today, the primary focus for shower and storm activity will be in Flathead County and Glacier Park, with 24-hour probabilities for 0.25 inches of precipitation reaching 60%.
On Independence Day, Thursday, a general drying trend is expected across the area, with isolated showers and storms developing along the divide. Highs will warm into the 70s and 80s across western Montana and into the lower 90s in the lower valleys of north-central Idaho under mostly clear skies.
Confidence is high for a hot and dry pattern from Friday into the weekend and beyond. Ensemble models strongly agree (>90% of members) that a high-amplitude ridge will move across the Pacific Northwest from Friday into Sunday, with the ridge axis shifting over the Northern Rockies by next week. Ensembles have been indicating a longer-duration heatwave across the lower elevations of Idaho, where excessive heat watches are now in effect. This trend is well-reflected in the NBM guidance, with probabilities for temperatures of 100F or greater exceeding 80% in Orofino and Riggins each day between July 6 and 10. Several days of temperatures between 90-95F or greater will also impact valley areas of western Montana.
AVIATION
Satellite imagery this afternoon reveals cumulus buildups in the Northern Rockies and thunderstorms passing through northwest Montana. Radar projections indicate most thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will concentrate near KGPI and extend south and east through the Glacier Region. The strongest storms are expected to produce heavy rain.
The next shortwave trough is on track to reach the region overnight, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms, particularly to northwest Montana. The extra rain today will increase the chance of fog, especially at KGPI on Wednesday morning. This disturbance, combined with above-average atmospheric moisture, is expected to increase thunderstorm coverage across most of western Montana on Wednesday afternoon.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
ID...Excessive Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday evening for Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region...
Orofino/Grangeville Region.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KGPI
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KGPI
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KGPI
Wind History graph: GPI
(wind in knots)
Missoula, MT,
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