Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Turtle Lake, MT

FXUS65 KMSO 131019 AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 419 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- High pressure this weekend into early next week bringing warming trend, with 80s for western Montana and mid-upper 90s for central Idaho.

- West-northwest flow pattern by middle of next week, opening the door for periodic disturbances, showers, and thunderstorms.

Model ensembles are in strong agreement (90% confidence in cluster analysis) for high pressure to build and shift inland along the Pacific Northwest coast this weekend. This leaves the Northern Rockies positioned under west-northwest flow aloft with strong subsidence and warming to our west. Valley temperatures will climb into the upper-70s and 80s across western Montana. Extreme low elevation river valleys of central Idaho will push into the mid-to-upper 90s by Tuesday.

As was mentioned previously, the forecast uncertainty begins to increase by the middle of next week. Despite this, it appears that temperatures will generally stay above average. The flow becomes more northwesterly by Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring breezy conditions to the region. There could even be several shortwaves that bring showers and a few thunderstorms. Around 50 percent of the ensemble model clusters depict a deeper trough over the Pacific Northwest by Friday. This type of pattern could support strong thunderstorms.
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