Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Turtle Lake, MT

FXUS65 KMSO 081826 AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1226 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Isolated gusty outflows with storms this afternoon in Lemhi County and southwest Montana

- Thunderstorms, mainly in north central Idaho and southwest Montana on Wednesday

- Cooler, showery and breezy Thursday, especially in NW Montana

Isolated thunderstorms are expected into this evening as moisture increases from the southwest. Storms will mainly affect Idaho County, Lemhi County, and southwest Montana, with gusty winds and lightning as the main threats. High-resolution models show gusts up to 50 mph.

Moisture will continue to increase tonight, with isolated showers and storms possible overnight, mainly bringing lightning and gusty winds.

More widespread thunderstorms are expected late Wednesday afternoon through the evening. Breezy winds will develop across north-central Idaho and western Montana Wednesday afternoon, and combined with hot and dry conditions, will increase fire weather concerns, especially in north-central Idaho.

Cooler conditions are expected Thursday as a trough drops out of Canada into northwest Montana. Showers are likely in western Montana, while north-central Idaho should stay mostly dry. The best chance for a wetting rain (0.10" or more) is in northwest Montana, with a 50–60% chance. Winds will be breezy region-wide, but cooler temperatures and higher humidity should help limit fire weather concerns.

Warm and dry conditions return by the weekend as high pressure rebuilds. Looking ahead to next week, models suggest another trough may drop out of Canada by midweek, bringing cooler temperatures and more showers. Timing and strength are still uncertain, with arrival possible as early as late Monday or as late as Wednesday.
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