Turtle Lake, MT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Turtle Lake, MT

April 15, 2024 10:10 AM MDT (16:10 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM
Moonrise 10:43 AM   Moonset 2:51 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Turtle Lake, MT
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Area Discussion for - Missoula, MT
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FXUS65 KMSO 150955 AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 355 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

DISCUSSION
We had some pretty good slow-moving thunderstorms last evening that brought heavy rainfall to portions of north- central Idaho and also in Mineral County, Montana. In fact, Highway 162 southwest of Kamiah,Idaho was closed due to a mudslide near Fort Misery Road. Radar rainfall estimates showed between 1 and 2 inches fell in that location in a matter of a few hours! Also to note, thunderstorms formed over the higher terrain west of Flathead Lake, then shifted over the lake just before midnight...producing a few lightning strikes and gusty south winds to 35 mph in Kalispell. High temperatures yesterday were well into the 70s with a few 80s...only several degrees away from tying with the daily records. It sure felt summer-like.

If yesterday was summer, then today will be more like spring and tomorrow through Thursday will be back to winter for some folks in the Northern Rockies. With the atmosphere in transition today with the influx of cooler air, a decent westerly pressure/wind gradient will set up over the region. Even though temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 60s for valleys today, the gusty winds between 25 and 35 mph later this afternoon and evening will make it feel kind of chilly...enough to possibly need a wind breaker! A 1 to 2 foot chop is expected on area lakes, especially on parts of Flathead Lake. The stronger wind probabilities are higher more towards the western part of the lake towards Big Arm and also in the northwest where wind gusts near or over 25 mph are more likely.

Then in comes the well-advertised, cold upper level trough on Tuesday...the mountains will feel it first as temperatures plummet down into the teens and 20s with wind chill temperatures in the single digits Tuesday morning. As the day wears on, high temperatures will struggle to get to 50 degrees for many locations and when you combine the gusty westerly winds, it's going to feel even more chilly than Monday! Snow showers can be expected, especially later Tuesday into Tuesday night across northwest Montana. Models depict a backdoor type cold front feature with gusty northeast winds from the Glacier region into the Flathead Valley towards Wednesday morning, and also snow down to valley floors across western Montana. The statistical ranges for snow amounts range from a quarter of an inch up to an inch in the valleys, then between 2 to 5 inches along the Divide including Marias Pass. The upper end depicts close to 9 inches in the higher elevations of Glacier National Park.

With such an unstable atmosphere, snow showers will persist during the day on Wednesday through Thursday. So there could be periodic slush at area passes and even for lower elevation travel corridors like Evaro Hill and upper benches of the Bitterroot, and points east across southwest Montana.

By Thursday and Friday, a milder ridge will build over the Pacific coast into Washington and Oregon. This will present lower pressure due to the milder conditions there, but meanwhile, colder high pressure over central Montana will set up a moderately strong north to east wind gradient over Idaho and western Montana. This may need to be watched as gusty east winds could be an impact to area lakes. There is a 20 to 30 percent chance for lingering mountain snow showers on Thursday.

Models diverge for next weekend (Apr 14-15)...so we look to the ensemble cluster analysis to see if there are any insights.
Setting the stage leading up the weekend, a temporary high- latitude omega blocking pattern sets up(which is part of the reason why the cold trough stays with us for about 4 days)and models have different takes on how the energy pinwheeling around the next northeastern Pacific trough will evolve. Around 70% of the ensemble members depict that energy moving over the region by Sunday which would bring unsettled and cooler weather for us. In fact, the NBM forecast ramps up the chance for precipitation for us. But to be fair, the other 30% of the members (which is still a plausible outcome), depict a milder and dry ridge over us followed by a cooler trough into the following week. Let's hope that after this chilly week, that the milder pattern will come to fruition!

AVIATION
The main story will be the increasing westerly winds across the region both today and Tuesday. Lingering showers can be expected over the southern Clearwater and Bitterroot mountains through early afternoon today. Otherwise gusty winds will ramp up by this afternoon. Gusty winds will continue in the higher elevations tonight through Tuesday morning, especially over the Divide.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for Flathead/Mission Valleys.

ID...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KGPI43 sm15 minSSE 1110 smClear54°F43°F67%29.81
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