Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Polson, MT
September 8, 2024 1:44 AM MDT (07:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 7:04 AM Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 12:04 PM Moonset 8:53 PM |
FXUS65 KMSO 080705 AFDMSO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 105 AM MDT Sun Sep 8 2024
DISCUSSION
A weather disturbance moving north and east out of central Oregon will spread light rain showers and cause an increase in winds across central Idaho and into west central and southwest Montana this afternoon and evening. Given how dry the atmosphere is currently, and how little available moisture there is in the atmosphere with this system, we expect showers to mostly evaporate before reaching the ground. In turn, this will generate gusty winds, with periodic gusts as high as 30-35 mph possible through this evening. For locations generally north of I-90, today will be another hot and mostly benign weather day, though some showers may make their way northward. Again, precipitation amounts will be quite light, though winds may increase in areas of showers if they make it that far northward.
Smoke and haze will be prominent today, and likely remain so through Tuesday as the region undergoes a transition to a more active, wetter, and cooler pattern by mid-week. Forecast confidence is increasing that much of central Idaho and western Montana could receive much-needed, beneficial rainfall amounts with the mid-week low pressure system. In fact, for 48 hour precip totals from Wednesday through Friday, there is now a 60% probability of at least 0.50" of rain to occur across portions of western Montana, and a 40% probability of at least 0.25" falling across central Idaho. If we want to be really optimistic, the 90% percentile (ie: 1 in 10 chance) for western Montana could total in the 1.25 to almost 2.00 inch range. The caveat currently is the timing and location of the heaviest bands of precip, thus the uncertainty and the wide swings in potential amounts. All of this to say: confidence is very high (90%) that our region will be wetter and much cooler mid-week into next weekend. Temperatures during the day both Thursday and Friday still look like they will range in the upper 50s to upper 60s.
AVIATION
High pressure will result in mostly clear skies and light and variable winds for KGPI today, while terminals further to the south will see an influence from increasing shower activity this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds associated with showers could cause gusts of 30 knots at times for KMSO, KSMN, KHRF, and KBTM after 08/1800Z through 09/0500Z until showers pass. Very little precipitation will be actualized from showers, resulting in mostly virga and blustery outflow winds.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
ID...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 105 AM MDT Sun Sep 8 2024
DISCUSSION
A weather disturbance moving north and east out of central Oregon will spread light rain showers and cause an increase in winds across central Idaho and into west central and southwest Montana this afternoon and evening. Given how dry the atmosphere is currently, and how little available moisture there is in the atmosphere with this system, we expect showers to mostly evaporate before reaching the ground. In turn, this will generate gusty winds, with periodic gusts as high as 30-35 mph possible through this evening. For locations generally north of I-90, today will be another hot and mostly benign weather day, though some showers may make their way northward. Again, precipitation amounts will be quite light, though winds may increase in areas of showers if they make it that far northward.
Smoke and haze will be prominent today, and likely remain so through Tuesday as the region undergoes a transition to a more active, wetter, and cooler pattern by mid-week. Forecast confidence is increasing that much of central Idaho and western Montana could receive much-needed, beneficial rainfall amounts with the mid-week low pressure system. In fact, for 48 hour precip totals from Wednesday through Friday, there is now a 60% probability of at least 0.50" of rain to occur across portions of western Montana, and a 40% probability of at least 0.25" falling across central Idaho. If we want to be really optimistic, the 90% percentile (ie: 1 in 10 chance) for western Montana could total in the 1.25 to almost 2.00 inch range. The caveat currently is the timing and location of the heaviest bands of precip, thus the uncertainty and the wide swings in potential amounts. All of this to say: confidence is very high (90%) that our region will be wetter and much cooler mid-week into next weekend. Temperatures during the day both Thursday and Friday still look like they will range in the upper 50s to upper 60s.
AVIATION
High pressure will result in mostly clear skies and light and variable winds for KGPI today, while terminals further to the south will see an influence from increasing shower activity this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds associated with showers could cause gusts of 30 knots at times for KMSO, KSMN, KHRF, and KBTM after 08/1800Z through 09/0500Z until showers pass. Very little precipitation will be actualized from showers, resulting in mostly virga and blustery outflow winds.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
ID...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KGPI
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KGPI
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KGPI
Wind History graph: GPI
(wind in knots)
Missoula, MT,
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