Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Marais, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:26AMSunset 6:57PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 8:44 PM EDT (00:44 UTC) Moonrise 12:02AMMoonset 3:42PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ162 Lake Superior West Of A Line From Saxon Harbor Wi To Grand Portage Mn Beyond 5nm- 405 Pm Edt Tue Oct 22 2019 /305 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 22 2019/
Late this afternoon..West winds 20 to 30 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet occasionally to 7 feet.
Tonight..West winds 20 to 30 knots. Scattered rain showers. Waves building to 4 to 7 feet occasionally to 9 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 20 to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Isolated rain showers. Waves subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. A slight chance of rain showers through midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots backing west by mid afternoon. Waves subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 10 to 20 knots by mid afternoon. Waves building to 3 to 5 feet occasionally to 7 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Waves subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 20 knots. Waves building to 3 to 5 feet occasionally to 7 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Waves building to 2 to 4 feet.
LSZ162 Expires:201910230415;;113406 FZUS63 KMQT 222005 GLFLS Open Lake Forecast for Lake Superior National Weather Service Marquette MI 405 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 For waters beyond 5 nautical miles of shore on Lake Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A 29.2 inch low pressure will continue to move northeast towards the Hudson Bay this evening, arriving by Wednesday evening. Following that, a 30.5 inch high pressure will move southeast out of the Canadian Rockies into the Central Plains Thursday, extending a 30.3 inch ridge over the Upper Great Lakes Thursday evening. This ridge weakens to 30.2 inches on Friday over the upper Great Lakes. A 29.2 inch low pressure moving east across the Canadian prairies will swing a 29.7 inch trough through Lake Superior late Saturday. LSZ162-230415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Marais city, MN
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location: 47.86, -89.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 230008
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
708 pm cdt Tue oct 22 2019

Update
Issued at 708 pm cdt Tue oct 22 2019
a vertically stacked low pressure system centered just north of
lake superior continued to cause light rain and gusty winds across
the northland. We increased pops tonight, especially into early
morning. Gravity wave induced rain was occurring over the bayfield
peninsula into portions of douglas county and this should continue
through at least 06z... Then winds aloft decrease some and the
depth of the moisture decreases by 12z Wednesday.

Update issued at 632 pm cdt Tue oct 22 2019
updated for the 00z aviation discussion.

Short term (this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 353 pm cdt Tue oct 22 2019
rain showers and gusty winds continue this afternoon in the wake
of yesterday's low pressure system. The low is now in the thunder
bay region, but it is filling slowly and while the pressure
gradient across the forecast area today is nearly as strong as it
was yesterday, winds aloft are much weaker and are not mixing down
as well as they did then. Surface winds this afternoon have been
sustained in the 15 to 25 mph range, with some gusts around 40 mph
at times. Wind speeds and gusts are beginning to come down though,
and we should see diminishing winds through the evening as mixing
diminishes and reduces the amount of stronger winds aloft that can
mix down to the surface. These winds and the cloud cover that is
lingering over the area should keep temperatures from dropping off
very far tonight, and have kept lows in the lower to middle 30s.

The steep low level lapse rates, the weak shortwaves aloft and
convergence in the lower layers is going to keep showers going
tonight, though the area coverage should diminish overnight. The
low pressure system that will be over james bay by early Wednesday
morning will slide slowly northeast into hudson bay Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Some weak shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft
along with the lingering moisture should continue to produce
showers Wednesday and Wednesday night, though they will be down to
just some slight chances over the arrowhead and parts of northwest
wisconsin Wednesday night. Some of these showers may become mixed
with snow at times, but I do not expect any accumulation from
these showers. This continued northwest flow under mostly cloudy
skies is going to keep temperatures from warming very far, so only
expect highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. There may be enough
clearing Wednesday night that in combination with the lighter
winds we should be able to get enough radiational cooling to get
lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)
issued at 353 pm cdt Tue oct 22 2019
the extended forecast period will be mostly dry, with increasing
chances of precipitation possible into early next week. Temperatures
will start out chilly, but warm to near or above average for Friday
and Saturday, then cooling again early next week.

Thursday will start off with a low-amplitude mid-level shortwave
sweeping through the region. In the upper-levels, a positively-
tilted trough will make its way eastward, which could spark off some
light snow showers over portions of the region. Chances of
precipitation should remain low, and QPF values also appear to be
low. Surface high pressure will then nose into the region late
Thursday, which will lead to drier conditions through the day
Saturday. There will be another mid-level shortwave passing through
early Friday, which could keep some partly cloudy skies over the
region. Otherwise, the air mass looks to be quite dry. Highs on
Thursday will warm up only into the upper 30s, but will become
warmer on Friday and Saturday, thanks to southwesterly flow around
the surface high pressure. Friday's highs will warm into the middle
to upper 40s, and into the lower to middle 50s on Saturday - which
will be slightly above average for this time of the year.

Our primary chances of precipitation look to be early next week as a
longwave mid-level trough develops from british columbia and the
pacific northwest states. An associated surface low will keep the
strongest forcing north of the region over manitoba and ontario, but
we could still see some chances of a rain snow mix Monday and
Tuesday. Colder temperatures aloft, characterized by 925 mb
temperatures between 0 and -8 degrees c, will support temperatures
falling back into the lower to middle 30s for highs Monday and
Tuesday. There are some differences among the gfs, ecmwf, and gem
guidance with this scenario, so will lean on the consensus blends
for now on precipitation chances, which brings between 20 to 40
percent chances over much of the northland.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 632 pm cdt Tue oct 22 2019
low pressure will continue to slowly move northeast in ontario
with low clouds and showers continuing to affect most terminals
this evening and overnight. Ceilings will be MVFR through the
period with periods of ifr possible, especially at inl overnight.

Rain showers will continue at all terminals except brd this
evening, lingering through the night especially to the north. A
few flurries may mix in as well, but not expecting any major
visibility restrictions. MVFR visibilities this evening will
gradually becomeVFR overnight as shower intensity and coverage
decreases. West to northwest winds will continue to be gusty
overnight, but will gradually decrease through the period as the
pressure gradient slackens a bit.

Marine
Issued at 708 pm cdt Tue oct 22 2019
gusty west to northwest winds will continue tonight through the
day Wednesday as a strong area of low pressure currently situated
over north-central lake superior will continue to lift
northeastward into ontario. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 knots can be
expected, particularly along the south shore due to the favorable
fetch. A few gale force gusts will be possible tonight, mainly
along the south shore. The highest waves will be along the
bayfield peninsula where they will be from 4 to 6 feet with a few
to 8 feet tonight. A small craft advisory remains in effect.

Winds should gradually taper off during the day Wednesday from
west to east as the area of low pressure moves away from the
region. Winds will remain from the northwest, but should become
weaker, with sustained winds between 10 to 15 knots on Thursday.&&

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 34 40 30 39 60 10 10 0
inl 33 38 27 39 80 20 10 0
brd 32 40 29 40 20 0 0 0
hyr 34 41 30 40 70 10 10 0
asx 36 43 32 42 70 10 20 0

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 4 pm cdt Wednesday for lsz121-140-141-
146>148.

Small craft advisory until 10 am cdt Wednesday for lsz142>145.

Update... Melde
short term... Le
long term... Jts
aviation... Js
marine... Melde


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GD5 - 9099090 - Grand Marais, MN 26 mi63 min 45°F 52°F990.2 hPa43°F
KGNA 26 mi49 min NW 13 G 24 44°F 990.5 hPa40°F
ROAM4 - Rock of Ages, MI 30 mi45 min WSW 11 G 12 46°F 991.9 hPa (+1.7)
45006 - W SUPERIOR 48NM North of Ironwood, MI 37 mi55 min W 21 G 27 45°F 45°F5 ft990.8 hPa (+2.3)
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 71 mi45 min W 26 G 31 44°F 993.6 hPa (+3.0)39°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Marais/Cook County Airport, MN27 mi68 minW 10 G 1910.00 miOvercast39°F35°F87%990.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCKC

Wind History from CKC (wind in knots)
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2 days agoS3N3CalmW3W3W4CalmW3W3W3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3S5S4S5SE5S3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.