Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 9:06 PM Moonrise 11:45 PM   Moonset 6:44 AM

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LSZ162 Lake Superior West Of A Line From Saxon Harbor Wi To Grand Portage Mn Beyond 5nm- 353 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2024 /253 Am Cdt Fri Apr 26 2024/
.gale watch in effect from Sunday morning through Monday morning - .
Early this morning - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Today - Southeast winds 10 to 20 knots backing east in the afternoon, then increasing to 15 to 25 knots late. A chance of rain showers by mid afternoon. Waves building to 2 to 4 feet. Tonight - East winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots after midnight, then backing northeast late. Rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves building to 3 to 6 feet occasionally to 8 feet. Saturday - Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 20 knots in the afternoon, then backing northwest late. Rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Saturday night - North winds 10 to 20 knots becoming northeast 15 to 25 knots after midnight. A slight chance of Thunderstorms through midnight. A chance of rain showers. Waves building to 3 to 5 feet occasionally to 7 feet. Sunday - Northeast gales to 40 knots. A chance of rain showers through early afternoon, then rain showers likely by mid afternoon. Waves building to 10 to 14 feet occasionally to 18 feet. Sunday night - Northeast gales to 45 knots. Rain showers. Waves subsiding to 8 to 11 feet occasionally to 14 feet. Monday - Northeast winds 20 to 30 knots becoming west 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers. Waves subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots becoming west 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet, then building to 1 to 3 feet.

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 261133 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 633 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Wet conditions are expected today, through the weekend, and into Monday as back-to-back Colorado Lows move through. Total rainfall amounts around 1-2" is expected from both of these systems.

- Embedded thunderstorms will be possible today through the weekend. Severe thunderstorm potential has decreased as the low pressure track on Saturday has shifted slightly to the southeast.

- Expect breezy to strong northeast to east winds on Sunday afternoon and evening as the second Colorado Low moves through. A Wind Advisory may be needed, especially along the North Shore.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 426 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Widespread rain will be arriving into the CWA today as a deep Colorado Low propagates towards the upper Midwest. Expect cloud cover to increase from southwest to northeast this morning ahead of the approaching low pressure. A strong low-level jet up to 50 knots extending from the Gulf of Mexico into southern Ontario will be bringing deep moisture advection and a period of prolonged rainfall.
Expect rain to being from southwest to northeast through the day today, initially falling as virga for the first couple hours as low-level dry air lingers from departing high pressure.

Widespread scattered showers will be persisting tonight into tomorrow as the Colorado Low center crosses over northwest Wisconsin on Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon. Embedded thunderstorms will be possible starting this afternoon around the Brainerd Lakes, expanding to encompass much of the CWA this evening into tonight. Instability will be fairly weak with around 100-200 J/kg of MUCAPE combined with around 30 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear.
Given the weak instability and marginal mid-level lapse rates around 7 degC/km, severe weather is not expected today into tonight. Severe thunderstorm potential has also decreased for Saturday in northwest WI. A slight southeast shift in the low pressure track from recent model runs now places the region of best CAPE east of the CWA

Expect a brief break from the widespread rain to occur Saturday evening into Sunday morning as today's Colorado Low propagates downstream. A second Colorado Low is expected to undergo cyclogenesis on Saturday as a deep trough propagates through the Rocky Mountains. This second Colorado Low is very likely to follow a similar path to today's system with time of arrival into the upper Midwest progged to be Sunday. While the LLJ providing moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico won't be as strong with this second system, total QPF is forecast to be similar. In total, both systems will be bringing 1-2" of rainfall across the entire CWA Locally higher amounts up to 2.25" may be possible, most notably along the North Shore as orographic enhancement occurs from strong northeast winds on Sunday. It is worth noting that while run-to-run model variations in total QPF have been fairly stable, there has been a slight decrease in total QPF. Flooding concerns are minimal, as this soaking rain will be occurring over a prolonged period and antecedent conditions are fairly dry.

While flooding and severe weather concerns are minimal to none for Sunday's low pressure, one concern will be strong northeast to east winds. There is a 50% chance that east to northeast wind gusts along the North Shore on Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening will reach Wind Advisory criteria. One impact that is much more certain on Sunday will be cool high temps. Highs on Sunday were lowered from the NBM as strong onshore flow from Lake Superior will likely advect cold air inland.

The pattern will remain active following the departure of the second Colorado Low on Monday evening. Zonal flow aloft at 250mb over the upper CONUS will likely result in a series of shortwaves propagating through. Additional chances for rain arrive Tuesday afternoon and continue periodically into next week Friday. High temps will be trending warmer next week, reaching around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for early May.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Widespread rain will arrive today along with lowering ceilings.
Timing for the onset of rain has been adjusted to be slightly later today due to the low pressure arriving slower than originally expected and the likelihood of virga initially due to lingering low- level dry air. Thunderstorms are possible (40% chance) this afternoon into tonight for all terminals except INL, where instability will be lower than the other TAF sites. Expect rain to continue on and off through tonight into Saturday morning. Southeast winds will be gusty to strong through much of the 12z period.

MARINE
Issued at 426 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Low pressure will develop over eastern Colorado and move towards western Lake Superior today. As the low enters the region today into Saturday, winds will be increasing out of the east to northeast at 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Waves will also be building in excess of 4 feet along the North Shore and western side of the Apostle Islands and Bayfield Peninsula. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for portions of western Lake Superior starting this afternoon and continuing into Saturday afternoon.

Winds will weaken a bit Saturday afternoon and Saturday night as the low passes. A second low pressure arriving on Sunday will once again increase winds from the east to northeast with gales very likely (80% chance) for Sunday into Monday morning. There is also a low chance (20% chance) for brief storm-force gusts on Sunday evening along the North Shore. A Gale Watch has been issued for all of western Lake Superior starting Sunday morning and continuing into early Monday morning. Make sure to monitor the forecast for a potential upgrade to a Gale Warning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for LSZ121-140>143-146>148-150.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ140>145.
Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for LSZ144-145.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ146-147-150.

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