Thursday, April2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Marais, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 8:31PM Thursday April 2, 2020 10:08 PM EDT (02:08 UTC) Moonrise 12:34PMMoonset 3:54AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ162 Lake Superior West Of A Line From Saxon Harbor Wi To Grand Portage Mn Beyond 5nm- 941 Pm Edt Thu Apr 2 2020 /841 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 2 2020/
Rest of tonight..East winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 20 knots after midnight. A chance of rain. Waves 4 to 7 feet occasionally to 9 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..East winds 10 to 20 knots backing northeast late. A chance of rain through early afternoon, then rain by mid afternoon. Waves subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Rain, possibly mixed with snow through midnight, then a chance of rain and snow after midnight. Waves subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots by mid afternoon. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots veering northwest after midnight. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 15 knots backing southeast by mid afternoon. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots backing northeast after midnight. A chance of rain. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Monday..East winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 10 to 20 knots. A chance of rain. Waves building to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots backing west. A chance of rain. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet, then building to 1 to 3 feet.
LSZ162 Expires:202004030945;;482878 FZUS63 KMQT 030141 GLFLS Open Lake Forecast for Lake Superior National Weather Service Marquette MI 941 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 For waters beyond 5 nautical miles of shore on Lake Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A 30.1 inch high pressure ridge extending from Hudson Bay through the Upper Great Lakes will gradually move east over lower Michigan through Friday morning. In its wake, a 30.0 inch elongated trough, spanning northward across the Upper Mississippi Valley all the way from Texas, will push across the Upper Great Lakes late Friday through Saturday morning. A ridge of 30.2 inches moves into the region behind the exiting trough Saturday through Sunday. The ridge will move away from Lake Superior Monday, with a low pressure of 29.7 inches approaching from the Central Plains Tuesday. LSZ162-030945-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Marais city, MN
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location: 47.86, -89.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 030128 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 828 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 828 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Spotty light rain has been the primary precipitation type this evening ahead of the cold front. At 01Z, the front had just passed through Brainerd and the temp dropped from 57 to 46 degrees in 30 minutes, with light rain reported. The front extends north to just west of International Falls. Main precipitation event is still over western Minnesota. Have made some adjustments to timing of the mixed precipitation, as well as other minor changes. Headlines remain unchanged.

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Main forecast concern for the short term remains focused on precipitation chances and type as a slow-moving system passes over the Northland.

A high-amplitude mid-level ridge stretched from far northern Ontario to Illinois this afternoon with a trough farther west over the Dakotas and southern Canadian Prairies. A surface trough axis was along a line from the Manitoba/Ontario border south into eastern Kansas. A sharp nearly-stationary front was located along the surface trough. Temperatures to the west of the boundary were in the 20s and teens and at 18Z Bismarck, ND was at 16 degrees, Rugby, ND was 12 degrees, and Rolla, ND was 10 degrees. Teens and 20s were found in the Red River Valley and temperatures east of the front were in the 40s and 50s over our western zones south toward central Minnesota. Winds over eastern North Dakota were from the north to northwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph, and farther east winds were generally from the south or southeast at 10 to 15 mph with a few gusts to near 20 degrees. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain were reported west of the front with dry conditions farther east.

The surface trough and associated quasi-stationary front will slowly plod eastward tonight and Friday as a shortwave trough aloft lifts north-northeastward through the eastern branch of the trough. The frontal surface will be shallow and bent back toward the cold sector. Warm air advection will continue aloft as the surface front slides east, with sub-freezing temperatures undercutting the warm air aloft. Elevated CAPE of 50 to 150 J/kg is forecast to leak northward from western Minnesota into central and north-central Minnesota between 03 and 09Z tonight. Embedded thunderstorms within the frontogenetically forced precip is possible. Precipitation falling through the warm layer will melt to freezing rain in the wake of the frontal passage. Pavement temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing generally south of US Highway 2 in Minnesota while areas farther north may see ice accumulation on roads. Ice accumulation on bridges, power lines, and trees is likely during the early morning hours with a change to all snow thereafter. The front will continue to slide eastward during the day ushering in a similar transition from rain to freezing rain to snow. After by mid-morning, the risk of icing on roads will end due to the high sun angle, even with clouds overhead. Icing on trees, power lines, and bridges will continue to be possible.

Precipitation will gradually end from west to east Friday afternoon through Friday night as the shortwave lifts into Ontario. Cold air advection will continue over the Northland with overnight low temperatures Friday night in the single figures west to the low 20s east.

LONG TERM. (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020

This weekend will start out quiet and relatively cool with high pressure moving in. Highs on Saturday will range from the low 40s north to upper 40s south. As high pressure moves east on Sunday, southerly return flow will bring warmer temperatures into the region with highs in the 50s for most areas.

Rain chances increase on Monday as warm air advection and an upper level wave move through. A brief break in precipitation is possible Monday before another wave passes through from west to east. Enough instability may be present to produce a few thunderstorms, with the best potential in east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin with plenty of warm air in place. Highs will likely reach the 60s for southern portions of the region, especially northwest Wisconsin.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, long-range models suggest a cold front will swing through as an upper level trough passes through southern Canada. This will bring drier conditions for most areas, but a few wrap-around showers of rain or perhaps snow will be possible especially in the Arrowhead. Models begin to diverge on Thursday, with the GFS suggesting dry conditions while the Euro hints at a more potent upper level trough with rain chances. In general, the trend will be for slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 40s.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020

VFR conditions initially, but look for cigs to drop into the MVFR range fairly quickly this evening as the light rain begins to develop/spread across the terminals. Some BR is expected with the rain, with cigs dropping into the IFR range, with isold pockets of LIFR. Cold air will be working over the terminals late tonight through Friday and a wintry mix of precipitation types is expected, with sleet and freezing rain possible, and eventually changing to snow toward morning. As the cold front moves through the area, all of the precipitation will become snow, with gusty surface winds. A brief period of LLWS may occur at HIB late tonight. Look for cigs to gradually improve to VFR by the end of the forecast with the snow ending.

MARINE. Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Gusty east to northeasterly winds around the head of Lake Superior will persist through Friday morning before a cold front moves through and turns winds northwesterly. Small craft advisories around the head of Lake Superior and up the North Shore will continue through Friday morning. Winds will gust from 25 to 30 kt with waves 3-6 ft, occasionally as high as 8 ft. Extended a small craft advisory from Port Wing to Sand Harbor through 09Z tonight for waves of 2 to 5 feet. Generally expecting winds to become a bit lighter Friday night into Saturday as high pressure moves in, though they may still be a bit gusty at times Friday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 35 36 16 41 / 90 100 20 0 INL 30 30 10 40 / 100 100 10 0 BRD 27 30 15 43 / 100 70 0 0 HYR 44 48 20 48 / 60 100 50 10 ASX 38 51 22 44 / 60 100 70 10

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM CDT Friday for MNZ010-018-025-026-033-034.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday for MNZ035- 036.

LS . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for LSZ146.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for LSZ141>145.



UPDATE . GSF SHORT TERM . Huyck LONG TERM . JDS AVIATION . GSF MARINE . JDS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KGNA 26 mi73 min NE 8 42°F 1019.2 hPa26°F
GD5 - 9099090 - Grand Marais, MN 26 mi51 min 1018.3 hPa
ROAM4 - Rock of Ages, MI 30 mi69 min E 15 G 16 42°F 1021.4 hPa (-0.4)
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 71 mi69 min E 18 G 19 39°F 1017.2 hPa (+0.0)33°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Marais/Cook County Airport, MN27 mi34 minENE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F15°F39%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCKC

Wind History from CKC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE4E4NE5E5E4E4E5E5E5E5NE7NE6E6E8E6
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1 day agoCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3E3E6E7SE6E8SE4E8E9E6E6E4CalmNE5
2 days agoCalmN5N7N5N4NE5N4N3N5N5CalmN5N4E5E6SE4E9SE8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.