Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Marais, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 9:58PM Sunday July 12, 2020 4:09 PM EDT (20:09 UTC) Moonrise 12:30AMMoonset 1:01PM Illumination 51% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ162 Lake Superior West Of A Line From Saxon Harbor Wi To Grand Portage Mn Beyond 5nm- 358 Am Edt Sun Jul 12 2020 /258 Am Cdt Sun Jul 12 2020/
Early this morning..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Today..West winds 5 to 15 knots backing south late. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots backing east after midnight. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Monday..East winds less than 10 knots increasing to 5 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers by mid afternoon. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 20 knots veering south after midnight. A chance of showers through midnight, then showers and a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves building to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Showers likely. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots veering west after midnight. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Waves calm to 2 feet.
LSZ162 Expires:202007121600;;719697 FZUS63 KMQT 120758 GLFLS Open Lake Forecast for Lake Superior National Weather Service Marquette MI 358 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 For waters beyond 5 nautical miles of shore on Lake Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A 30.0 inch ridge will be over the Upper Great Lakes Sunday afternoon through Monday. The ridge will shift east Tuesday into early Wednesday as a 29.7 inch trough lifts northeastward across Lake Superior. Ridging will return on Thursday with a surface pressure ridge of 30.0 inches building over Lake Superior. LSZ162-121600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Marais city, MN
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location: 47.86, -89.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 121745 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1245 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today through Monday) Issued at 442 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Today will be another lovely day for outdoor activities with a weak ridge of high pressure over the area with light winds. A field of diurnal cumulus should develop for the afternoon hours. A few models develop some afternoon showers along the lake breeze boundary along the North Shore, but the low level airmass is relatively dry, and am not terribly convinced these showers will develop and have left them out of the forecast for this afternoon. Tonight will also be quiet with southerly flow increasing as the high pressure ridge slides off to the east.

Monday and Monday night a cold front will advance toward the area. Ahead of it, a surge of warm moist air will move in from the south, pooling ahead of the cold front, setting up afternoon CAPE values over western MN of over 1500j/kg and westerly bulk shear values of 35-40 knots. A shortwave moving through the southwesterly flow aloft across the Dakotas will intersect with the cold front Monday afternoon over eastern North Dakota, and we should see convective initiation during the late afternoon along the MN/ND border region. Some of these storms will be strong to severe, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Later on during the overnight hours the storms should weaken, but is still a fairly big question mark if they weaken before or after the storms move into the CWA. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the western CWA into a Slight Risk. By the time the storms move in, they should have formed into a linear mode, which should bring damaging winds and large hail threats. I have slowed down pops as they move into the forecast area as compared to previous forecasts, and we will have to see what further adjustments are needed in the coming forecast runs.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 442 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Tuesday the showers and thunderstorms continue east across northwest Wisconsin. Instability is expected to decline, as well as the severe weather threat, as the cold front moves into Wisconsin. Once the front moves through, the Northland will stay under the influence of the upper level trough on Wednesday as it deepens and could bring another round of showers and thunderstorms. Disagreement in the global model suite indicates uncertainty in the coverage and placement of the showers.

Early Thursday, the trough should move east and by Thursday afternoon, another trough should make its way to our area from North Dakota, along with chances of showers and thunderstorms. The trough should move east and out of our CWA by late Friday morning.

In the evening on Friday, yet another trough should follow the first. More showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Northland into Saturday early afternoon as it moves east. But wait, we're not done yet! Another upper level trough is expected to follow, with another round of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1245 pm CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

High pressure centered over northern Minnesota this afternoon will slowly drift toward northern Lower Michigan by 18Z Monday. Look for areas of VFR ceilings and light winds through today. A few sprinkles are possible, mainly over the Arrowhead. Visibility may dip to 4 or 5 miles in showers. Given the isolated coverage, have kept any mention out of the TAF for now. Will amend if showers develop. Patchy areas of fog possible once again tonight, mainly at HYR, HIB, and BRD. Winds will turn from the south on Monday and wind speeds will increase to around 10 knots.

MARINE. Issued at 1019 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

High pressure centered over northern Minnesota will keep conditions quiet over western Lake Superior today through Monday. Winds will be variable in direction this morning turning southerly this afternoon at 3 to 8 knots. An area of low pressure will develop in the western Dakotas Monday and will push northeastward into Ontario by midday Tuesday. The low will be accompanied by a cold front which will touch off thunderstorms in the Dakotas Monday afternoon. The storms will move eastward over Lake Superior Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Winds over the lake will be from the northeast ahead of the front Monday at 5 to 15 knots. The storms will bring a potential for large hail, gusty winds, and torrential rainfall.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 78 57 80 62 / 10 10 10 90 INL 80 58 83 58 / 10 10 20 90 BRD 81 60 84 64 / 0 0 20 90 HYR 79 55 84 65 / 10 10 0 90 ASX 79 56 85 64 / 10 10 0 80

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. LS . None.

SHORT TERM . LE LONG TERM . LE/Kossen AVIATION . Huyck MARINE . Huyck


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KGNA 26 mi134 min WSW 6 61°F 1014.3 hPa57°F
GD5 - 9099090 - Grand Marais, MN 26 mi52 min 68°F 49°F64°F
ROAM4 - Rock of Ages, MI 30 mi70 min WSW 11 G 11 62°F 1016 hPa (-0.8)
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 71 mi70 min W 5.1 G 8 68°F 1015 hPa (-1.0)61°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Marais/Cook County Airport, MN27 mi75 minN 510.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F51°F47%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCKC

Wind History from CKC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW4N8N9N7N6N5N5N4NE3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N7NW3N5NW4CalmSW3N5
1 day agoW6W5NW6NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6NW5NW6NW6NW7NW6
2 days agoW5W5SW3S4SW5S3CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W5W5W7NW4W10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.