Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Marais, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:37AMSunset 5:39PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 1:31 AM EST (06:31 UTC) Moonrise 6:00AMMoonset 2:47PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ162 Lake Superior West Of A Line From Saxon Harbor Wi To Grand Portage Mn Beyond 5nm- 408 Pm Est Mon Jan 20 2020 /308 Pm Cst Mon Jan 20 2020/
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect from 10 pm est /9 pm cst/ this evening through Tuesday afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning...
Late this afternoon..West winds 10 to 20 knots. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots by midnight, then becoming southwest 20 to 30 knots late. Heavy freezing spray. Waves building to 7 to 10 feet occasionally to 13 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest gales to 35 knots. Heavy freezing spray. Waves building to 8 to 11 feet occasionally to 14 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest gales to 35 knots. Freezing spray. Waves subsiding to 7 to 10 feet occasionally to 13 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest gales to 35 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. A slight chance of freezing drizzle and snow in the morning. A slight chance of drizzle. Waves subsiding to 6 to 9 feet occasionally to 11 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots backing south after midnight. A chance of drizzle. Waves subsiding to 5 to 8 feet occasionally to 10 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots veering east in the afternoon. A chance of drizzle and snow. Waves subsiding to 4 to 7 feet occasionally to 9 feet.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 20 knots. A chance of drizzle in the evening. A chance of snow. Waves 4 to 7 feet occasionally to 9 feet.
Friday..East winds 5 to 15 knots backing northeast. A chance of snow. A chance of rain. Waves subsiding to 3 to 6 feet occasionally to 8 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds less than 10 knots veering southwest. Waves subsiding to 3 to 5 feet occasionally to 7 feet.
LSZ162 Expires:202001210515;;257558 FZUS63 KMQT 202108 GLFLS Open Lake Forecast for Lake Superior National Weather Service Marquette MI 408 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 For waters beyond 5 nautical miles of shore on Lake Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A 30.8 inch high over the Northern Plains will weaken to 30.5 inches as it drifts southeast into the Ohio Valley tonight and tomorrow. A 29.4 inch low will transit across northern Ontario, reaching Hudson Bay Wednesday. This low will swing a weak 29.9 inch trough across Lake Superior Wednesday evening into Thursday. By early Friday, a 30.5 inch high will build in across eastern Ontario while extending a 30.3 inch ridge across the region. LSZ162-210515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Marais city, MN
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location: 47.86, -89.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 210533 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1133 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 920 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

Lowered minimum temps along the Borderland as the prior forecast values have been exceeded. Made some other minor adjustments.

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 249 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

Dry conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon, with the next chances of precipitation moving into northwest Wisconsin late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. The main focus for tonight is on cloud cover and temperatures.

High pressure, which is currently situated over the South Dakota/Minnesota state border, will gradually slide east- southeastward tonight and Tuesday, with a dry air mass in place. As the high pressure system slides southward, there should be a period of good radiational cooling before a low-level jet dives southward late this evening and tonight, along with increasing warm air advection as winds turn southwesterly. The radiational cooling should help lead to the return of a low-level thermal inversion, which could lead to some low stratus development, which would then help temperatures recover. Winds could increase tonight as the low- level jet settles into the region. Overnight lows look to fall into the single digits below zero, but these temperatures may be too cold, depending on the warm air advection and enough wind to help keep the boundary layer well mixed.

Warmer still for Tuesday, thanks to the low-level warm air advection, with gradually increasing cloud cover. Highs Tuesday will warm into the upper teens to lower 20s - closer to seasonal average. Winds will remain from the south to southwest into Tuesday night, with a mid-level shortwave moving into the region. This should bring the next chances of precipitation, mainly to northwest Wisconsin. This precipitation could be a wintry mix of snow and freezing drizzle, depending on ice crystal growth aloft. Only light precipitation amounts are anticipated.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 249 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

The long term period will be riddled with p-type issues as a slow moving system crosses the South. It will allow a pool of warm air to ride up and over the cold air to the north and hang out for the week. This long period of warm air aloft will oscillate between an ice-bearing atmosphere and not throughout the week which will likely cause p-types to switch depending on the day, though it will be difficult to decipher with much confidence this far out. One thing to note is overall QPF amounts will be light throughout the week - cumulatively bringing a 0.10 to 0.25" Wednesday through Sunday.

Most of the energy potential for the week gets wrapped up in this system, so not expecting any large systems to march through. However, probably the most notable detail of the forecast will be the warm temperatures with highs residing in the low to mid 30s.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1133 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

VFR through the forecast. Expect LLWS to affect all terminals starting at INL early in the forecast, then impacting the remaining terminals from north to south through the early morning. The LLWS will continue through the rest of the forecast as a strong southwest low level jet is overhead.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 0 19 14 33 / 0 0 10 20 INL -4 24 18 30 / 0 0 10 0 BRD -5 20 15 34 / 0 0 10 10 HYR -2 20 14 36 / 0 0 30 50 ASX 3 24 17 34 / 0 0 10 30

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. LS . None.

UPDATE . GSF SHORT TERM . JTS LONG TERM . Wolfe AVIATION . GSF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KGNA 26 mi36 min WNW 4.1 12°F 1032.5 hPa4°F
GD5 - 9099090 - Grand Marais, MN 26 mi56 min 1030.3 hPa
ROAM4 - Rock of Ages, MI 30 mi32 min W 27 G 30 23°F 1031.7 hPa (-1.7)
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 71 mi32 min WSW 23 G 28 18°F 1032.5 hPa (-1.5)12°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Marais/Cook County Airport, MN27 mi37 minWSW 310.00 miFair3°F0°F85%1026.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCKC

Wind History from CKC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9N10NW7NW9
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NW10NW8NW12NW8NW6NW3NW6NW4W4CalmCalmCalmSW3SW3SW3SW3W3W6SW3SW3
1 day agoN12
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2 days agoE13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.