Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Marais, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:36AMSunset 5:04PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 1:41 AM EST (06:41 UTC) Moonrise 5:00PMMoonset 7:50AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ162 Lake Superior West Of A Line From Saxon Harbor Wi To Grand Portage Mn Beyond 5nm- 952 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019 /852 Pm Cst Tue Dec 10 2019/
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect through Wednesday evening...
Rest of tonight..West winds 20 to 30 knots veering northwest late. Heavy freezing spray. Scattered snow showers. Waves 4 to 8 feet occasionally to 10 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 6 feet occasionally to 8 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Isolated snow showers in the morning. Heavy freezing spray. Waves subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots by midnight, then backing southwest late. A chance of snow showers. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots veering south after midnight. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots veering northwest after midnight. A chance of snow showers. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots veering north. A chance of snow showers. Waves building to 3 to 5 feet occasionally to 7 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots backing west. Waves subsiding to 1 to 3 feet, then building to 2 to 4 feet.
LSZ162 Expires:201912111100;;168941 FZUS63 KMQT 110252 GLFLS Open Lake Forecast for Lake Superior National Weather Service Marquette MI 952 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 For waters beyond 5 nautical miles of shore on Lake Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A 30.0 inch trough will remain over Lake Superior tonight through Wednesday morning. Then, a 30.5 inch ridge of high pressure will drop south from the Canadian Prairies into the Ohio River Valley Wednesday afternoon into Thursday and will stretch a 30.4 inch ridge across the lake. A 30.0 inch trough will pass across the lake Thursday evening as a 29.7 inch low develops across the Dakotas on Friday morning. This low will traverse east through the Northern Plains before crossing Lake Superior on Saturday morning. On Sunday, a 30.2 inch ridge of high pressure will drop south from the Canadian Prairies into the Northern Plains. LSZ162-111100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Marais city, MN
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location: 47.86, -89.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 110534 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1134 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 1011 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Upped PoPs for Thursday morning as 00Z HREF came in lending more confidence to the snow occurring.

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 221 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Not much change to the going forecast, with bitterly cold wind chills expected to begin this evening, continuing through Wednesday morning. Our next round of light accumulating snow will move into the region Wednesday night.

The synoptic pattern changes very little for tonight through Wednesday afternoon, as the Northland remains under an upper-level longwave trough, which will maintain an arctic air mass over the region, with northwest flow aloft. At the surface, a couple areas of high pressure will swing by to our south, with the first one moving through the central Great Plains states this afternoon, and another one to move in late tonight through Wednesday afternoon. The result will be generally westerly flow, with mostly dry conditions. The only exception will be along the South Shore of Lake Superior as the frigid temperatures will support some lake effect snow over the relatively warmer Lake Superior waters. The 1000-850 mean flow will be oriented from west to east, which will mainly bring chances of lake effect to the U.P. of Michigan, but this snow could graze the Bayfield Peninsula and far northern Ashland and Iron counties. Any snow accumulations that occur will be very light in nature.

Tonight will be bitterly cold across the region, with minimum wind chill values between 25 to 35 degrees F below zero. This will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. Use extra caution if going outside! Highs on Wednesday will warm up into the single digits above and below zero. The synoptic pattern will begin to change Wednesday evening as a compact mid-level shortwave trough sweeps into the region, which will spark off some snow accumulations. The bulk of the large-scale forcing will remain to our south, but the wave should graze our southern areas where some stronger isentropic ascent is expected. The bulk of the snow accumulations are expected over northwest Wisconsin and adjacent areas of northeast Minnesota.

LONG TERM. (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 221 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Briefly warmer late-week, then a round of cold air this weekend followed by another brief period of warmer (but still below normal) temps early next week. After snow ends Thursday, a clipper approaches the region Friday bringing up to 1-2 inches of snow to parts of northern Minnesota with a chance for light snow lingering into Saturday, then dry early next week.

On the synoptic scale a mid-level shortwave trough will be tracking east across the Upper Midwest towards the Great Lakes on Thursday bringing a round of snowfall to most of the Northland, with the strongest broad-scale lift over northern Wisconsin where as much as 3 to 5 inches of snowfall is possible, lesser amounts in northeast Minnesota. Temperatures rise towards the end of the week as a clipper approaches from the west, this second wave with a more northerly track resulting in weaker broad-scale lift more focused on northern Minnesota, perhaps up to 1-2 inches for areas along and north of the Iron Range from Friday into Saturday. Highs in the mid teens Thursday to as warm as the 20s on Friday.

A round of colder air moves in late weekend as high pressure builds in from the west, with at least partially clearing skies possible on Sunday as the area of high pressure builds across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Colder, with single digit highs above zero on Sunday and lows Sat/Sun night in the single digits below zero.

Temperatures moderate a bit early next week with highs in the teens and lows near zero under mainly cloudy skies. While these temperatures are still below normal, the Climate Prediction Center's longer term forecasts for late December is trending towards above normal temps!

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1132 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

VFR conditions expected with gusty northwest winds. No big concerns except for some anthropogenic MVFR cigs/vsbys near KHIB and a system moving into the KBRD area late in the TAF period which will bring snow.

MARINE. Issued at 1011 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

West-northwest winds 15 to 25 knots combined with arctic air moving in will result in a threat for Heavy Freezing Spray tonight into Wednesday, then winds weaken into Wednesday night, become light around 5 knots and generally out of the south through the rest of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH -14 -3 -9 14 / 0 0 80 60 INL -13 -2 -9 9 / 0 0 30 30 BRD -15 -4 -6 13 / 0 0 80 30 HYR -16 2 -8 18 / 0 0 80 70 ASX -9 2 -5 18 / 10 10 80 70

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for WIZ001>004- 006>009.

MN . Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033>038.

LS . Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ146-147.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ146-147.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ145- 148.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ145-148.



UPDATE . Wolfe SHORT TERM . JTS LONG TERM . JJM AVIATION . Wolfe MARINE . Wolfe


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KGNA 26 mi46 min WSW 8 G 14 -2°F 1020.1 hPa-9°F
GD5 - 9099090 - Grand Marais, MN 26 mi66 min -2°F 1017.5 hPa-11°F
ROAM4 - Rock of Ages, MI 30 mi42 min WNW 21 G 23 2°F 1019.7 hPa (-0.7)
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 71 mi42 min W 23 G 29 3°F 1020.2 hPa (+0.8)-0°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Marais/Cook County Airport, MN27 mi46 minW 9 G 187.00 miOvercast-11°F-18°F70%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCKC

Wind History from CKC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW4NW4NW5NW4CalmNW3NW6NW4NW6
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1 day agoN7N8N9N7N9N10N9N11N12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.