Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Marais, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 9:02PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 4:13 AM EDT (08:13 UTC) Moonrise 10:54PMMoonset 12:03PM Illumination 68% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ162 Lake Superior West Of A Line From Saxon Harbor Wi To Grand Portage Mn Beyond 5nm- 401 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019 /301 Am Cdt Wed Aug 21 2019/
Early this morning..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves calm to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet.
Today..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots veering east in the afternoon. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to less than 10 knots after midnight. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Friday..East winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots veering southeast after midnight. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots veering south. Waves building to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Showers likely. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
LSZ162 Expires:201908211615;;971570 FZUS63 KMQT 210801 GLFLS Open Lake Forecast for Lake Superior National Weather Service Marquette MI 401 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 For waters beyond 5 nautical miles of shore on Lake Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Troughing of 29.9 inches will continue to exit the Upper Great Lakes today, with high pressure of 30.1 inches building into the Dakotas today. This ridging will shift southeast over the lake by Thursday night, and remain anchored overhead through Saturday as it builds to 30.3 inches. By Sunday, ridging shifts east over Quebec and troughing of 29.5 inches becomes established over the Dakotas. LSZ162-211615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Marais city, MN
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location: 47.86, -89.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 210530
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
1230 am cdt Wed aug 21 2019

Update
Issued at 1229 am cdt Wed aug 21 2019
updated for the 06z aviation discussion.

Update issued at 958 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019
updated for evening marine update. Also, raised minimum
temperatures tonight as current trends are running warmer than
previously forecast. This appears to be due to stronger surface
winds and higher dewpoints not moving into the area very fast.

Short term (this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 304 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019
a cool canadian high pressure builds in across the northern great
plains and the upper midwest today into tomorrow leading to mainly
sunny skies and temperatures near to slightly below seasonal values.

Breezy Wednesday with northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
20 mph.

Late this afternoon isolated showers storms are possible along and
ahead of the cold front, with the most likely location right along
the front. A few thunderstorms have already been observed across the
iron range early this afternoon, and while the severe threat should
be fairly low with limited instability (around 500-1000 j kg mlcape)
and decent shear (about 40 knots of mainly speed shear along the
front), some storms could produce gusty winds or small hail, but
overall think the storms will be too brief in nature to pose a
severe risk.

On the synoptic scale a fairly amplified longwave ridge is over the
rockies, building east into the canadian prairie and northern great
plains on Wednesday leading to a broad area of high pressure
building from saskatchewan into manitoba Wednesday, towards
northwest ontario on Wednesday night. At the same time a shortwave
trough associated with an upper low over northwest ontario today
will track south into northern minnesota and across the upper great
lakes late tonight into the day Wednesday. While the best large-
scale forcing from this upper low will remain across ontario, some
of the low mid level moisture associated with the system may cause
some increasing clouds across northeast minnesota Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Otherwise this low will simply
reinforcing the cooler air at low levels, resulting in highs in the
the 60s to near 70 on Wednesday afternoon. Lows tonight and
Wednesday night will fall to the 40s in most spots and perhaps into
the upper 30s in some of the usual cold spots. The exception will be
right along the lake superior shoreline where the warm water
temperatures will keep the lows from falling below 50 degrees on the
lakeshore.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)
issued at 304 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019
high pressure will be in place at the surface to start the period.

However, a large upper low to the south of hudson bay will spin a
rather potent shortwave through the upper midwest during the day
Thursday. Given the cooler temperatures temperatures aloft and the
shortwave moving through, a few isolated showers cannot be ruled
out, but this threat is so minuscule have left it out for now. The
high will then shift to the east Thursday night into Friday as
ridging moves in aloft. With the core of the high moving near
northwest wisconsin Thursday night, have lowered lows into the lower
40s with a few upper 30s given the clear skies and light winds.

Areas along and to the east of the iron range may dip down into the
upper 30s and lower 40s as well. As the high continues to move to
the east Friday, this will setup southerly flow across the northland
and bring in warmer and more moist air. A shortwave will move across
the dakotas and bring some shower activity to the dakotas and
western minnesota during the day. This shortwave then weakens Friday
night early Saturday morning, but showers and perhaps a few storms
may work into our western zones during this period. Another
shortwave will then traverse the northern plains on Saturday and
bring an area of showers and storms from the dakotas into western
minnesota. While guidance is in fair agreement in bringing a
shortwave through the northern plains, they differ in how far east
the associated precipitation reaches. As such, much of the northland
looks to remain dry on Saturday, but western areas will see chances
for rain.

Another shortwave will then rotate around the base of the longwave
trough for Sunday into Monday and looks to be a bit stronger than
the previous two. Guidance is in agreement that surface cyclogenesis
will occur somewhere in the upper midwest during this time period,
but differ in location in timing. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible for much of Sunday and Monday with the front pushing
through towards the end of the period. Given the moisture and warm
temperatures from the southerly flow leading up to the latter half
of the weekend, along with the upper pattern and surface cold front,
there will be the potential for strong to severe storms sometime
during the Sunday Monday period.

Temperatures will begin the period in the middle 60s to lower 70s in
Thursday before warming into the 70s for the remainder of the
period. Thursday and Friday morning will start out rather chilly for
this time of year with lows in the middle 40s to upper 30s. Lows
then return to the 50s and 60s for the remainder of the period.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1229 am cdt Wed aug 21 2019
fog will likely be an issue tonight for most TAF sites. Best
confidence in MVFR to ifr visibilities is at hyr, where more
moisture remains following the cold front passage and rain from
earlier during the day. While the air mass is drier further
northwest, more rain fell there, and with light winds and very few
clouds, cannot exclude the possibility of some fog at brd, hib,
and inl. Most likely visibility reductions will be brief withVFR
conditions prevailing.

On Wednesday,VFR conditions are expected at all sites as high
pressure sits over the region. A few clouds may develop in the
afternoon. Some wind gusts to around 15 kt are possible in the
afternoon as well, mainly north. A short wave moving in from
southern ontario Wednesday evening may bring some scattered to
broken clouds, mainly to inl and hib.

Marine
Issued at 958 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019
no hazardous marine conditions are expected for the next 48
hours. Northwest winds as of issuance time should turn to the west
on Wednesday, then through northwest to north once again Wednesday
night, then finally around to the northeast for Thursday. Wind
speeds to generally be less than 12 knots through this period,
with waves of 2 feet or less.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 52 69 47 69 0 0 0 0
inl 50 65 43 70 0 0 0 0
brd 52 71 48 73 0 0 0 0
hyr 52 70 47 71 40 0 0 0
asx 55 71 49 70 30 0 0 0

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Kc
short term... Jjm
long term... Bjh
aviation... Kc js
marine... Le


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GD5 - 9099090 - Grand Marais, MN 26 mi56 min 61°F 52°F1014.8 hPa55°F
KGNA 26 mi78 min NNW 5.1 58°F 1014.5 hPa52°F
ROAM4 - Rock of Ages, MI 30 mi74 min WNW 7 G 7 64°F 1015.8 hPa (+0.0)
45006 - W SUPERIOR 48NM North of Ironwood, MI 37 mi84 min NW 3.9 G 3.9 64°F 64°F1014.4 hPa (+0.5)
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 71 mi74 min NW 8.9 G 11 64°F 1015.7 hPa (+0.6)55°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Marais/Cook County Airport, MN27 mi18 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy48°F44°F87%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCKC

Wind History from CKC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmS5S7S8
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1 day agoW8W5SW3SW5W4W5SW6SW8
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmSW3NW5
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.