Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Marais, MN

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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:32AMSunset 5:04PM Saturday December 7, 2019 6:35 AM EST (11:35 UTC) Moonrise 3:11PMMoonset 3:21AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ140 726 Pm Cdt Mon Sep 30 2019
.an line of Thunderstorms approaching western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Grand portage to grand marais mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 726 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated a line of Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and cloud to water lightning. This area of Thunderstorms was located along a line extending from 13 nm northwest of beaver bay, to 16 nm west of duluth lift bridge channel, moving east at 40 knots. Locations impacted include... Raspberry island lighthouse, split rock bay, castle danger, sand island, barkers island, sugar loaf cove, horseshoe bay and safe harbor, tofte safe harbor, duluth lift bridge channel, twin points safe harbor, tofte, beaver bay, mouth of the cross river, bayfield peninsula sea caves, brule point, herbster, larsmont, superior harbor, and french river. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4669 9229 4668 9224 4679 9214 4715 9149 4754 9093 4773 9051 4799 8945 4690 9080 4693 9086 4692 9095 4684 9110 4674 9149 4666 9201 4671 9210 4665 9213 4664 9229
LSZ140 Expires:201910010230;;606186 FZUS73 KDLH 010026 MWSDLH Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 726 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 LSZ140>147-162-010230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Marais, MN
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location: 47.86, -89.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 071134 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 534 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

SHORT TERM. (Today through Sunday) Issued at 352 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

Main concerns during the short term involve precipitation types with warm frontal passage today and with another chance of precip on Sunday.

High pressure was centered over Lower Michigan early this morning with a warm front arcing from southern Alberta to eastern South Dakota. Low stratus was found over much of the Northland, with the exception of an area of clear skies over interior portions of the Minnesota Arrowhead. The warm front will lift northeastward across northwest and north-central Minnesota this morning and continue off to the northeast this afternoon and evening. Isentropic forcing for ascent near the surface and mid-level omega will set up a complex precipitation cascade on either side of the front. Low-level saturation would seem to support a potential of freezing drizzle. Meanwhile a second cloud layer aloft will be located within a zone of negative omega and temperatures cold enough for snow. The main question is whether the snow crystal growth will be sufficient to survive a 5 to 8 kft dry air layer before full column saturation occurs. The forcing for ascent is co-located with the dendritic growth zone aloft, so snow crystal growth of small dendrites seems favored. If those snow crystals survive the dry air below, the will likely become rimed with liquid droplets resulting in snow grains or rimed snowflakes at the surface. If there is insufficient growth aloft, the snow crystals would sublimate and the low-level moisture would yield freezing drizzle. For now have leaned toward the snow side of the fence, but can’t entirely rule out freezing drizzle.

The warm frontal precipitation will move out of the Northland tonight. A cold front will move into the region tonight, which will set up a potential for post-frontal precipitation early Sunday morning through the afternoon. The precipitation on Sunday may start as drizzle or freezing drizzle with warm air near the surface. There are similar concerns regarding the depth of the ice layer aloft and dry air between that area and the low-level moisture as with today’s forecast. Hedged more on the freezing drizzle potential through mid-morning Sunday. A North Shore gravity wave may develop along the Lake Superior shoreline, and would enhance forcing for ascent from the Twin Ports to Grand Portage. Have included a band of freezing drizzle associated with this feature before the main cold frontal precip arrives later in the day.

Snow and ice accumulations during the short term will be light, a glaze of ice and up to one-half inch of snow accumulation are expected.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 352 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

A positively tilted upper level long wave trof will reach the eastern Dakotas Sunday night. Its associated surface low will move toward northern Illinois. There are some differences amongst the models on the location of the low, as well as the QPF signal. NAM and ECMWF are similar with location and timing of highest QPF. The GFS/GEM are also similar with their respective QPF, and are farther east by 12Z Monday. Blended these solutions which focuses the highest QPF/snow amounts over the southern half of the forecast area. These differences continue on Monday, although the 00Z/7 run of the ECMWF is wetter/slower than the other models. Prefer the faster consensus. With the warm air in place Saturday evening, will see some mixed precipitation from the I35 corridor east through northwest Wisconsin, becoming all snow from west to east as the night progresses and cold Arctic air changes the precipitation type to all snow overnight. Accumulation is likely along and south of the Iron Range, and through all of northwest Wisconsin. Will hold off on any headlines at this moment due to the variability amongst the models in timing and coverage.

The upper trof moves into the western Great Lakes Monday night while the surface low moves into Quebec. A cold front extends back into the region from this surface low and will be the focus for some additional light snow. Amounts will be light, as much drier air with the Arctic cold, settles into the area. Some lake effect snow is possible over north central Wisconsin, but the surface winds are rather light. The aforementioned drier air will also play a role in any accumulations.

The Arctic air remains locked over the region through Tuesday night. Northwest flow continues to generate some lake effect snow showers along the south shore of Lake Superior. However, there is some variability in the surface wind direction and speed which affects potential accumulation. The lake effect diminishes on Wednesday as high pressure moves into southern Minnesota and turns the wind into a westerly direction. Low wind chill values will occur Monday night through Wednesday night, with hazardous wind chills possible Tuesday night.

The high drifts to the southern Great Lakes Wednesday night with some ridging remaining nearby. Models diverge in the handling of the next short wave and its potential to bring snow to the area. A blended approach favors a dry forecast overnight. Model differences continue to grow quite large with the handling of short waves affecting the area through Friday, and there subsequent potential for precipitation. Kept with the blended approach to resolve the differences.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 534 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

A warm front was lifting north through central Minnesota at the outset. Mainly MVFR cigs, with some pockets of IFR and VFR were dotting the region. As the front moves north through the day, a brief improvement of cigs to VFR at all sites. However, an approaching upper level wave will bring MVFR cigs back with some light wintry mix, mainly over HIB and INL. Used a VCSH mention for timing questions. Gusty winds are also possible after fropa. A brief period of LLWS is on tap overnight as a low level jet moves through the area in conjunction with the upper wave.

MARINE. Issued at 352 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

A southwest wind of 10 to 15 knots is forecast today, with some higher gusts from Taconite Harbor to Grand Marais tonight through Saturday morning. Waves will build to 3 to 5 feet in this area and will have a Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6pm tonight until 9am Sunday. The wind turns northwest Sunday morning, then switches to the north northeast in the afternoon, and maintains this direction through Sunday night. Wave heights will increase along the south shore, but will hold off on additional headlines as confidence is low on speed, gusts and wave heights.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 29 26 31 7 / 10 20 60 70 INL 29 17 24 -3 / 40 30 20 20 BRD 31 26 29 6 / 20 10 50 70 HYR 33 29 34 17 / 10 10 60 80 ASX 32 29 35 17 / 20 10 70 80

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. LS . Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Sunday for LSZ140-141.



SHORT TERM . Huyck LONG TERM . GSF AVIATION . GSF MARINE . GSF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KGNA 26 mi40 min W 6 25°F 1022.8 hPa20°F
GD5 - 9099090 - Grand Marais, MN 26 mi48 min 1021 hPa
ROAM4 - Rock of Ages, MI 30 mi36 min WSW 17 G 19 29°F 1023.7 hPa (-1.0)
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 71 mi36 min SSW 8.9 G 13 24°F 1022.5 hPa (-0.9)16°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Marais, The Bay of Grand Marais, MN26 mi40 minW 6 mi25°F19°F81%1022.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGNA

Wind History from GNA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--544--3Calm34CalmCalmNW4NW5NW3NW3W3W4W6W4CalmNW3W5W6W6
1 day agoE6N4CalmCalm3NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmSW54--553----W53
2 days agoW4W4W3W3W54W8
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W7--5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW3Calm3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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