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FXUS66 KOTX 102321 AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 321 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A ridge of high pressure will settle in for the upcoming week.
This will lead to several days of low clouds and areas of fog. A couple weak weather systems will also bring an opportunity for light precipitation tonight into Monday, and again on Thursday.

DISCUSSION
Tonight through Tuesday Night: A moist boundary layer left in the wake of the widespread precipitation that fell in the past 24 hours along with moist, warm air advection has resulted in widespread low clouds with areas of fog. Light winds and the low sun angle will do little to help mix out the low clouds. This will result in little diurnal change in temperatures for most areas stuck in the muck. In addition a weak weather system tracking from Central BC into Idaho and Montana will keep shower activity persisting tonight into Monday especially in the Palouse and Central Panhandle Mountains with the assistance of low level upslope flow. The moderated lower atmosphere will promote mainly valley rain and mountain snow with a couple inches of wet snow for Lookout Pass. With the worst of the snow event past us and limited impacts from snow tonight all Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings for the Idaho Panhandle have ended. JW

Wednesday through Saturday: A brief mid-week disturbance will bring increased moisture and precip chances regionwide Wednesday evening into Thursday. Snow flurries with minimal accumulations can be expected in areas of higher terrain, while light mixed precipitation will be possible in the lowlands.

As the disturbance moves out of the Inland Northwest Thursday night and goes on to disturb the atmosphere elsewhere, precip will clear out and our ridge will re-establish itself. Despite the ridging pattern, intermittent chances for mountain snow will continue into the weekend, but lower elevations can expect to stay dry.

Abundant near-surface moisture left over from this weekend's storm will linger for much of next week. With a snowy, slushy mess on the ground and limited mixing of the atmosphere, fog will develop easily and will likely be a recurring nuisance each day for a large part of the region, particularly in the early morning hours.

Temperatures will be consistent, reaching the upper 30s to low 40s each afternoon and dropping into the 20s overnight. Overall, next week is looking relatively quiet. /Fewkes

AVIATION
00Z TAFS: A deep, moist, and saturated boundary layer has led to widespread IFR/MVFR stratus over the region. Light winds will result in continued stratus over the region for the next several days (and likely be around all week). Given multiple stratus layers confidence in precise visibility and ceilings is low for each TAF site. Given there is no strong change in the air mass tonight a near persistence forecast is favored. The exception is Pullman and Lewiston where downslope southeast boundary layer winds will be diminishing, with lowering CIGS favored overnight.
Monday morning some increase in boundary layer north-northeast wind down the Okanogan Valley into the Moses Lake and Wenatchee areas as well as the Coeur d'Alene area should aid in increasing the height of the stratus layer.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high confidence of continued restrictions over the region with widespread stratus. Given multiple stratus layers confidence in precise ceilings and visibility is low. There is moderate to high confidence that the VFR conditions over LWS this afternoon will drop to MVFR tonight as the downslope boundary layer winds ease, but low confidence with the timing and degree of restrictions. JW

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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:// www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 33 36 32 36 27 36 / 40 10 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 33 38 31 37 25 36 / 50 20 0 0 0 0 Pullman 34 39 33 39 28 37 / 70 30 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 38 43 37 44 31 42 / 60 20 0 0 0 0 Colville 29 36 28 37 25 36 / 30 10 0 10 10 10 Sandpoint 32 39 29 37 24 37 / 70 30 0 10 0 0 Kellogg 33 37 33 40 24 40 / 80 50 10 0 0 0 Moses Lake 34 38 32 38 32 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 32 37 32 37 33 37 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Omak 32 40 29 37 29 38 / 10 0 0 0 10 10

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
WA...None.

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