Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Forks, WA

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Scattered showers continue this afternoon in a post-frontal airmass. Some instability, generally ranging 200-600 J/kg, will continue to result in localized thunderstorms into this evening, particularly along the Olympic Peninsula, as well as in the convergence zone that has developed over King/Kitsap Counties.
Small hail, brief gusty winds, and lightning may occur within any thunderstorm. The convergence zone will slowly progress southwards across King County into this evening. Showers will also result in additional snow accumulation at times for the mountains. Snow levels will remain around 1500 to 2000 feet into tonight, with snow for the Cascades Passes. Brief, heavy snow rates can occur in heavier showers as well. In general, precipitation tapers off tonight, with drier conditions developing by Thursday morning.

Overnight temperatures will fall into the 30s for most locations into Thursday morning. In addition to the colder temperatures, skies will clear for the Olympic Peninsula, as well as portions of south Sound. This will help promote frost development into Thursday morning. Have issued a Frost Advisory for many lowland locations across the Olympic and Kitsap Peninsulas. There also remains higher probabilities (over 70 percent) for freeze conditions for Olympia southwards and along the Southwest Interior, for that reason, upgraded to a Freeze Warning for these locations. Will need to monitor the potential for additional Frost Advisories elsewhere, however, lingering clouds are expected for a good portion of the central and north Puget Sound, which may limit any frost. Otherwise, any lingering clouds Thursday morning will clear for some sunshine in the afternoon. Dry conditions then continue through Friday with ridging building into Western Washington.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
An upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest Saturday, and then slide southwards along the west coast early next week. There remains some uncertainty in regards to the eastward extent of the associated front over the weekend, which would impact the potential for additional rainfall, primarily on Sunday. At this time, the highest chances for rainfall remain along the Olympic Peninsula, but precip potential exists elsewhere as well.
Either way, this system will remain rather far offshore, and impacts are expected to be limited. Slight precip chances remain into midweek as the upper low moves onshore, with the bulk of the energy focused south of Western Washington. Seasonable temperatures look to return early next week. JD

AVIATION
A mix of MVFR and VFR cigs continue this evening across the area.
Scattered showers continue to move across the area, as well a convergence zone over the central Puget Sound. These will all start to ramp down later this evening, with mostly dry conditions by around 12Z Thur. A few showers may linger into the day on Thursday but should remain confined to the mountains. As for ceilings, expecting mostly VFR conditions tonight across much of the area, with the exception around the Puget Sound as the convergence zone slowly dissipates and keeps lower CIGs in the equation through the overnight and into early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions should prevail across the entire region by 18Z Thur through the end of the TAF period with much less cloud cover.

Winds outside of the Puget Sound are southwesterly, but remain squirrelly within the sound as the convergence zone begins to weaken and winds swing around from north to southerly. Variable E/NE winds will transition to southerly after around 06Z this evening. Winds will reduce to around 5 kt or less tonight, with W to SW winds prevailing tomorrow, around 5 to 10 kt.

KSEA.. MVFR cigs continue this evening with the convergence zone nearby. This should slowly taper off tonight but MVFR cigs may stick around through much of tonight into the early morning tomorrow as the clouds from the convergence zone slowly lift and scatter. VFR cigs become most likely after 18Z Thur. Southerly winds will ease becoming 5 kt or less overnight, increasing to around 5 to 10 kt during the day Thursday, and becoming more southwesterly.

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MARINE
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible over area waters today. Main concerns with the thunderstorms are erratic/gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours. Small Craft Advisories continue in effect for the coastal waters for the combination of steep seas 8-12 ft with a dominant period of 9-10 seconds and winds. Although seas have been hovering slightly below 7-9 ft with the latest obs, seas are expected to build later this evening to 10 ft and thus the Small Craft Advisory for Grays Harbor Bar has been extended through Thursday morning.
Thunderstorm activity expected to taper off tonight. High pressure will rebuild over area waters on Thursday and seas are expected to decrease below 10 ft, but still looking to remain steep through Thursday night. A westerly push is expected through the Strait of Juan de Fuca on Thursday. However, current probabilities are between 30-45% of winds exceeding 21 kt. High pressure will weaken on Saturday and the next system is expected to impact area waters this weekend. Latest guidance suggests winds and waves will remain below small craft thresholds at this time.

29

HYDROLOGY
No river flooding is expected during the next seven days.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County.

Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Northern Hood Canal-Port Townsend Area.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Thursday for Grays Harbor Bar.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.