Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Sultan, WA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
An upper level low pressure system will slowly progress inland over Oregon throughout much of the week, bringing in cooler temperatures alongside periods of rain. Wrap around moisture has already made its way northward into southwestern Washington this morning with light accumulations. Showers will continue to move northward into the region throughout the day today. Temperatures will cool considerably today as this system works its way into the region, with highs reaching the mid 50s to low 60s.
Instability from the aforementioned low may also produce some lightning strikes over the western Cascades this afternoon, but any thunderstorms are unlikely over the lowlands.

The upper level low will continue to meander eastward towards the Intermountain West on Wednesday, maintaining chances for shower activity and cooler temperatures. Wednesday will be the coolest day of the week, with temperatures mostly peaking below the 60 degree mark across western Washington. Snow levels will remain above 5000 to 6000 feet through mid week, limiting any snow accumulation to the higher mountain peaks.

Conditions will dry out for much of the region on Thursday as moist northwest flow develops aloft, with light showers tapering off over the Cascades. Temperatures across the region will begin to rebound, with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s. Cloudy skies Thursday morning will give way to mostly sunny skies by the late afternoon.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Forecast models continue to show an upper level ridge building offshore through the extended, though models are showing variability over how far eastward the high pressure will expand.
Northerly flow aloft will maintain seasonable temperatures through the weekend, though both ensembles and deterministic models are hinting at the potential for showers to develop on Sunday and Monday as a positively tilted trough brushes the eastern edge of the high pressure ridge.

15

AVIATION
South to southeasterly flow aloft will turn east to northeasterly tonight as a broad upper trough moves onshore over northern California and southwest Oregon. The low level flow is onshore.
Ceilings will deteriorate toward afternoon as moisture associated with the area of low pressure spreads northward into the region.
MVFR ceilings in scattered showers are expected most areas by afternoon with shower coverage increasing tonight. Predominantly MVFR ceilings in showers will persist into Wednesday. Modest instability could lead to an isolated thunderstorm over the higher terrain of the Cascades this afternoon.

KSEA...Ceilings on are track to deteriorate this afternoon as a band of deeper moisture lifts northward into the area. MVFR ceilings in showers mid to late afternoon will persist into tonight with low MVFR ceilings expected to persist much of Wednesday. Surface winds S/SW 4 to 8 knots this morning will rise to 8 to 12 knots this afternoon/evening. By Wednesday morning, southerly surface winds will rise to 10 to 15 knots gusting to around 20 knots at times. 27

MARINE
Weak low pressure will remain over the inner coastal and interior waters into midweek with broad high pressure remaining well offshore. An increase in onshore flow today will lead to small craft advisory westerlies in the central/east strait. Gusty north to northwesterly winds and steepening seas are expected over the outer coastal waters on Wednesday. Models have been very consistent over the past 72 hours /at least/ that seas are likely to exceed 10 ft over the majority of the Coastal zones. Given that level of confidence and in collaboration with PQR, went ahead and issued an SCA to cover this event. Although winds increase, SCA thresholds for wind are only met out in the outer coastal waters. Rough bar conditions may emerge for Grays Harbor bar Wednesday evening, but with that being 4 periods out /today, tonight, tomorrow, tomorrow night/, felt it best to leave that potential headline to future shifts. Winds ease, seas subside and the flow turns more northerly late this week in response to a strengthening surface ridge over British Columbia.

18/27

HYDROLOGY
No river flooding is expected over the next 7 days.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 11 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.