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FXUS65 KMSO 102113 AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 213 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2023

DISCUSSION
The remnants of significant moisture is moving out of the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Scattered showers will linger into the evening hours. Snow levels and temperatures did not warm as much as previously expected, so the main precipitation type will be snow. The exception will be the lower valleys of north central Idaho and the southern Bitterroot valley.

A weak disturbance will dig into eastern Oregon and move through southern Idaho later tonight into Monday. The bulk of the precipitation will be associated with this disturbance, which could bring light snow to Lemhi county by Monday morning. The remainder of the Northern Rockies will have light isolated showers lingering throughout the night. This feature will cause some polar air to be pulled into northwest Montana from east of the Continental Divide Monday morning. A burst of snow is anticipated along the leading edge of this front along with gusty easterly winds. Precipitation should end shortly after frontal passage as drier air will be associated with this colder air mass.

A ridge of high pressure will be building over the region Tuesday into Wednesday. This ridge will allow for the development of valley inversions with the potential of patchy fog and low stratus. The models are indicating weak disturbances sliding over the top of the ridge on Thursday and again on Saturday. These features do not appear to be strong enough to break up valley inversions, but increased clouds along with scattered showers over northwest Montana should be anticipated.



AVIATION
A ridge over the region with a lot of moisture moving over the northern edge of it is breaking down this afternoon. A shortwave dropping out of the northwest is right behind it. The combination will keep snow showers affecting area terminals through tomorrow afternoon (11/20Z). Terminals KGPI and KMSO will be most affected by the snow. With all this moisture, fog and mist will also be concerns, though due to the instability and lift coming with the short wave we do not expect dense fog or VLIFR conditions at any point. Tomorrow afternoon dry air on the back end of the shortwave will work into the area and put an end to the precipitation. Then for the next few days fog will be the main concern.



MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Monday for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Lower Clark Fork Region.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Monday for West Glacier Region.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Butte/Blackfoot Region.

ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains.

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