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FXUS65 KMSO 072054 AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 154 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2023

DISCUSSION
This morning a cold front pushed through the Northern Rockies lowering snow levels to around 4500 feet MSL.
Snow has been accumulating at times over area passes creating slick spots. This evening snow levels will continue to descend to around 3000 feet MSL and allow the precipitation to change over to snow for most valleys.

Late tonight into Friday morning a weak wave is depicted in the models stalling over northwest Montana. Between this disturbance and favorable westerly upslope flow, areas such as Seeley Valley, Bigfork, and Ferndale may receive multiple inches of snow by mid Friday morning. For this reason winter weather advisories have been issued for these locations through 9 am MST. Other valleys above 3000 feet MSL may receive up to an inch of snow.

Overnight Friday into Saturday a transient ridge coupled with a few hours of clearing will allow weak cold pools to develop in valleys. Beyond creating the potential for morning fog Saturday, these inversions will help negate some downsloping potential for the next system Saturday evening into Tuesday morning. For this reason, we have lowered both snow levels and high temperatures for Sunday and Monday in western Montana.

Initially Saturday evening, flow aloft will be zonal or west to east and snow will mainly affect mountains. On Sunday, flow aloft turns more northwest and valleys will begin to receive light snowfall. The main area of precipitation will be from the mountains of north-central Idaho through northwest Montana.
Lookout Pass is forecast to receive 9 to 14 inches, while the Clearwater, Cabinets, Mission, Swans, and Flathead Mountains could receive 12 inches plus. Depending on how strong downsloping effect is many western Montana valleys could receive up to 2 inches, while MT-200 and US-2 west of the Flathead Valley could receive 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts in excess of 4 inches.

A strong southerly pressure gradient will develop over the Highway 95 corridor from Riggins up onto the Camas Prairie in Idaho which will limit snow accumulations and create breezy conditions Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

Currently, the models are in very good agreement for a strong ridge of high pressure to develop middle of next week. Expect strong valley inversions, with fog and stratus, and degrading air quality.



AVIATION
Gusty westerly winds (25-35 mph) have been experienced across the region today behind this morning's cold front. These winds will diminish during the evening hours. Snow levels, which are currently around 4500 feet MSL, will slowly lower to 3000 feet MSL around midnight. Light snow accumulations at KGIC, KGPI, KMSO, KHRF, KBTM, and KSMN can be expected by tomorrow morning.
Mountain obscurations will be present through midday tomorrow in showers.



MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST Friday for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Lower Clark Fork Region.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for West Glacier Region.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM MST Friday for Flathead/Mission Valleys...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PST Friday for Southern Clearwater Mountains.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM PST Friday for Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region.

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