Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Harbor, WA

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A thin blanket of altostratus covers the northern half of the region as a warm front moves onshore onto British Columbia. This system will remain up to the north, keeping at least the southern half of the region mostly clear, with mostly high clouds to the north. Light offshore flow and a weak upper level ridge moving through this weekend will allow temperatures to warm each day, with highs in the mid 60s to near 70 on Sunday, up to the low to mid 70s on Monday, mainly for the interior and away from the water. Areas of fog will be possible in the morning, especially Sunday morning, with lows dropping into the low 40s. Fog will be most likely over the Southwest Interior, and the Kitsap Peninsula, as well as in the river valleys--in a similar manner to what occurred this morning.

As the ridge slowly shifts eastward through the beginning of the week, that will allow the system presently over British Columbia to shift southeastward towards our area, allowing for chances of rain to begin as early as Monday afternoon over northwestern Washington. This system will continue to slowly shift southward early on Tuesday but weaken as it does so. Rainfall amounts will be light, with most of the area seeing a few hundredths to a few tenths of an inch possible. The best chance for more substantial rainfall will be in the northwest Olympic Peninsula near Neah Bay, where up to a half an inch is expected with locally higher amounts up to an inch are possible around Cape Flattery. All in all, and over the span of two days, this system currently does not look to be hydrologically impactful.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Chances for light rain look to continue into the end of the week as the trough continues to dig southward and with a very slow westward progression with a large ridge building over the central U.S. If the ridge builds farther westward, that could keep the trough farther west and bring a break to precipitation chances late week. Ensembles finally kick the trough eastward on Friday with a fairly sharp ridge quickly building in behind that for next weekend. If that evolution occurs, that will allow for a warming trend and drier weather, which concurs well with the Climate Prediction Center's 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks.

LH

AVIATION
VFR with light shower and virga activity grazing the Olympic Peninsula and northern interior this afternoon and evening.
Areas of MVFR/IFR in low stratus and patchy fog are favored to develop west of the Puget Sound once again early Sunday. Patchy fog with MVFR to IFR conditions east of the Sound less favorable Sunday morning (10% to 20% chance) and would burn off quickly after sunrise. High pressure will continue to build into the region Sunday afternoon, allowing for more VFR conditions with little more than high clouds. Surface winds generally light out of the north 10 kt or less this afternoon, becoming light overnight.

KSEA...VFR with BKN high clouds and N/NE winds 6-9 kt through the evening. Models continue to show potential for patchy fog development mid-morning Sunday which may cause short-lived MVFR/IFR conditions. Winds will switch to SE/SW by Sunday morning and will remain 7 kt or less.

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MARINE
A surface ridge will continue to build into the region into Sunday, with northerly winds today shifting to southerly later on Sunday as a dissipating cold front approaches. The front will cross area waters on Monday, bringing in a surge of winds and higher seas. While criteria is borderline for a SCA, conditions will continue to be monitored as the system gets closer. Another weak system is on track to follow mid-week.

Seas at 4 to 5 ft will rise to 7 to 9 ft as a cold front crosses the region late Sunday into Monday. Seas will stay between 6 and 8 ft with a slightly stronger swell briefly bringing in seas up to 10 ft later next week. Seas are on track to weaken to 5 to 6 ft by the end of next week.

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SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...None.