Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Harbor, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 5:41PM Thursday February 20, 2020 8:38 AM PST (16:38 UTC) Moonrise 5:59AMMoonset 2:37PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 227 Am Pst Thu Feb 20 2020
Today..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..S wind to 10 kt becoming variable in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..Light wind becoming se to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves less than 1 ft becoming 1 ft or less after midnight.
Sun..S wind 5 to 15 kt becoming variable to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Mon..Variable wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 227 Am Pst Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Light offshore flow today will turn to light onshore flow on Friday. A weak front will reach the area Saturday morning and another front will reach the area Sunday or Sunday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Harbor, WA
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location: 48.25, -122.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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FXUS66 KSEW 201103 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 303 AM PST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Dry conditions will persist into the early part of the weekend, with higher level cloud increasing Friday. A weak front may bring a few light showers on Saturday, with a more robust system expected for Sunday. This system will bring lowland rain and mountain snow to the area, which will linger into Monday. Dry conditions return for Tuesday and last through mid-week.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 11z this morning, the synoptic pattern was characterized by a ridge of high pressure extending from the west coast of the US into the eastern Rockies, with an elongated area of weak troughing downstream of this feature across the Midwest and Great Lakes, zonal flow across the south, and a weak trough upstream across the eastern Pacific. At the sfc, an expansive area of strong high pressure (with center pressure around 1045mb) encompasses much of the lower 48, with center approximately across the Midwest and influence essentially stretching from coast to coast. An elongated frontal boundary, seemingly stationary was noted near the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Most of the impactful weather this morning is located far from the region, across the South where subtropical jet moisture is feeding into close proximity of stationary boundary amidst zonal flow. Closer to home, water vapor loop suggests a subtle perturbation in the mid level flow near the northern OR Coast, with a weak trough oriented N-S just offshore, the southern portion of which is closed off and digging SE. Weak ridging both at the sfc and aloft is making for continued clear skies and benign weather conditions across western Washington. Going forward today, the mid/upper level ridge will begin to break down as the weak Pacific trough nudges closer to the local area. By the afternoon, it looks like some of the vorticity in the northern OR coast wave and the Pacific wave will merge together and move across the area. Local BUFR soundings don't show much in the way of sensible weather impacts with this, perhaps just an increase in some higher level moisture/cirrus clouds. This wave will pass to the east overnight with another night of quiet weather in store as sfc high pressure continues to dominate.

Through the day on Friday, the flow will become more zonal and the local area should begin to see an increase in high and mid level cloud cover. A frontal system, with associated parent system located up near the Gulf of Alaska, will begin to approach the area late Friday from the NW. This frontal boundary will begin to move into the area early Saturday morning. Model guidance notes a weakening trend with this system as it pushes further into the area through the day, likely due to increasing distance from the parent system and a subsequent loss of sufficient dynamics. For now will keep mention of a few light showers across the area with this system, but certainly does not look to amount to much.

Kovacik

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Following quickly on the heels of the weakening frontal boundary will be a more robust area of low pressure on Sunday. Model guidance is indicating the approach of a closed shortwave trough with a rather organized sfc low accompanying it. Noticing some timing discrepancies in both the arrival of low and in the precip associated with it. Nevertheless, over the course of the next several days, Sunday looks to be the wettest/have the best potential for precip. Snow levels in the mountains look to remain in the 2000-3000 foot range so the chance for some decent snowfall is expected through the day Sunday and into early Monday. Will watch this evolve over the next several days.

Lowland rain and mountain snow should gradually taper off through the day on Monday as the system departs to the east and high pressure attempts to build into the area. High temps will be back into the mid 40s for the lowlands on Monday. As is usually the case, noticeable disagreement emerges in the deterministic guidance towards the end of the extended, so ECMWF, GFS, and CMC ensemble guidance was heavily used. Evidence of a higher amplitude pattern developing across the eastern Pacific and the CONUS by Tuesday, with a decent ridge suggested across the western US/E Pacific. This should make for a dry forecast. There is some evidence of the ridge weakening, per the ensemble guidance, by mid-week which may reflect an slight increase in precip chance.

Kovacik

AVIATION. Mostly clear skies continue with a dry stable air mass. There were a few patches of morning fog or low clouds around daybreak Wednesday and that is possible again this morning.

KSEA . Mostly clear with a light and variable or light east wind.

MARINE. Light offshore flow will continue today and light onshore flow might develop Friday. A weak front will reach the area Saturday morning and another front will reach the area Sunday or Sunday night.

HYDROLOGY. No river flooding is expected over the next 7 days. Dry conditions will persist into the weekend, with the best chance of rain in the next week expected on Sunday and into Monday. The pattern appears to be progressive enough and without a lower latitude influence to prevent the threat of river flooding at this time.

Kovacik

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WA . None. PZ . None.

www.weather.gov/seattle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 15 mi68 min ESE 8 38°F 1025 hPa29°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 17 mi50 min 38°F 47°F1025 hPa
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 18 mi28 min NNE 6 G 11 40°F 1024.9 hPa33°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 34 mi62 min SW 1 G 1.9 37°F 47°F1024.9 hPa
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 36 mi28 min ENE 9.7 G 14 44°F 46°F1025.8 hPa34°F
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 41 mi38 min NE 2.9 G 2.9 39°F 1024.7 hPa (+0.4)36°F
CPMW1 44 mi56 min 37°F
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 45 mi50 min 1025.2 hPa
CPNW1 45 mi86 min 38°F

Wind History for Port Townsend, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Whidbey Island Naval Air Station - Ault Field, WA11 mi1.7 hrsESE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy32°F26°F79%1025.7 hPa
Burlington/Mount Vernon, Skagit Regional Airport, WA16 mi63 minENE 510.00 miFair36°F28°F75%1025.1 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, WA18 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair28°F27°F96%1025.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUW

Wind History from NUW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E44E8SE6E6NE6E3NE4E4E3E8SE7E8E3E4E8SE6E6CalmE4E5E5E5
1 day agoNE8NE7N7N6NW7NW7NW8N11N8N8N8CalmCalmCalmSE5NE6SE3CalmSE3E7CalmSE4CalmSE3
2 days agoSE3CalmNW5CalmNW6NW5W4NW3CalmE3E4SE4SE4SE5CalmSE3E3E5E5E5E4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Stanwood, Washington
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Stanwood
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:28 AM PST     7.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:58 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:08 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:37 AM PST     2.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:23 PM PST     6.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:37 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:38 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:28 PM PST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.82.64.66.27.17.16.55.64.43.42.62.22.34.166.15.85.34.43.32.21.10.3-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Mutiny Bay, 3.3 miles SE of, Washington Current
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Mutiny Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:02 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:38 AM PST     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:58 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:09 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:08 AM PST     0.33 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:38 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:54 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:39 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:02 PM PST     -1.29 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:40 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:12 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:11 PM PST     1.52 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.10.80.40-0.7-0.6-0.3-00.20.30.20.50.4-0.1-0.8-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.9-0.7-0.4-0.11.5

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.