Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dover, ID

SYNOPSIS
Strong high pressure will remain in place through at least Tuesday. In the meantime, low clouds and fog are expected to impact the lowlands through early next week. Confidence is low on coverage and timing of low cloud and fog coverage. There is an increasing signal for unsettled conditions to return by the middle-to-later stages of next week.

DISCUSSION
Today through Monday: The persistent, stable and stagnant forecast continues across the region as we continue to sit under the eastern periphery of a stout Pacific Coast high amplitude ridge and sfc high pressure. Low stratus/fog will continue to blanket the lowlands/valleys while the higher terrain areas lucky enough to be above the stratus cloud layer will get to enjoy the clear sunny skies. Air quality may be degraded at times hence the Air Stagnation Advisory that is in place across much of the forecast area.

Starting Tuesday, a series of compact waves will begin moving through the otherwise northwest flow aloft, as we remain between the coastal high amplitude ridge and a strengetheing low pressure system centered over Manitoba. However, the next feature/time period of interest with the potential for impactful weather will come later next week. Ensemble cluster analysis has general agreement that we turn from weaker ridging late Thursday to under trough influence Friday. These solutions would support a more impactful trough moving across the region.
However there does remain notable differences beyond that timeframe from the strength and location of the upper trough to 10% of solutions which would indicate weak ridging overhead.

For now, the probability of accumulating snow looks to increase mainly in the higher terrain Thursday night with low land potential increasing Friday and Saturday. There are significant model disagreements in regards to temperatures late week as well. The 25-75th percentile max and min temperatures for next weekend in Spokane, for example, have nearly a 20 degrees spread. This is the period that has the potential for the greatest impacts to the region, but also comes with a fair amount of uncertainty in specifics at this time.

AVIATION
06Z TAFs: Persistent and widespread low stratus will continue through the TAF period, with primarily MVFR/IFR conditions.
Expect stratus cover to slosh around a bit, but continue to have a presence over the Inland Northwest through the weekend.
Recent observations and trends have heavily shaped the forecast with models continuing to have a poor handle on conditions.
Winds will remain light and variable at most sites. If any sites on the edge of the stratus are able to break out this afternoon, expect stratus/fog to fill back in tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence is areas of persistent low stratus to continue. Low confidence on specific locations of fog development.

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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs
Spokane 25 37 23 35 24 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 24 39 22 35 24 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 27 37 25 38 27 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 29 38 27 38 28 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 23 38 20 36 23 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 24 37 23 34 25 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 27 40 24 38 27 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 25 37 22 36 24 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 28 39 28 38 28 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 27 38 25 37 26 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 0

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST Tuesday for Central Chelan County-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains- Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County.
ID...Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST Tuesday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle.