Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dover, ID

SYNOPSIS
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will persist through this weekend. Temperatures will be well above average Monday and Tuesday as strong high pressure noses into the region. Forecast uncertainty greatly increases into mid to late next week with potential for lightning.

DISCUSSION
Today and tomorrow: Forecast remains on track for of elevated to critical fire weather conditions for the Inland northwest today. This mornings wave that brought virga showers and isolated lightning to southeastern BC has moved rapidly northeast towards central Alberta, bringing in a drier airmass behind it thanks to downsloping winds off the Cascades and synoptic descent. Winds through much of the troposphere increase this afternoon and evening as a trough offshore Vancouver Island becomes neutral to slightly positive tilted tightening the thermal gradient over WA. Red flag warnings are in effect until this evening in portions of central WA but the area of most concern remains the Okanogan valley where deeper mixing and slope alignment will mix down gusts to around 25-35 mph with ease. Pressure gradients become more aligned with the Cascade gaps this evening which will lead to a westerly wind shift around sunset on the Waterville Plateau and western Columbia Basin. The Inland northwest will be brushed by a dry cold front into tomorrow morning bringing an even drier airmass to central WA. However, the further south and east you are tomorrow in the Inland Northwest, there is a higher chance of seeing cirrus as PWATs are actually increasing thanks to moisture transport from the monsoon high in the intermountain west. The cold front passage and cirrus will moderate temperatures into the 70s and 80s tomorrow, slightly below average. Still am expecting elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions for the Okanogan valley Sunday as conditions look even drier but with winds being weaker in the boundary layer, opted out of issuing another red flag warning.

Monday and Tuesday: Temperatures rebound back into the 80s and 90s Monday and Tuesday as the upper low currently west of Vancouver Island departs and subtle height rises take place. The best chance for mid to high 90s will be further north and west towards central WA as mid and high level clouds will knock down temperatures in eastern WA and north ID a few degrees. Locations along US-97 have a 20-50% chance of seeing 100+ degrees Tuesday.

Wednesday through Sunday: Forecast confidence drops off quickly mid next week as models are struggling with a shortwave trough off the WA/OR coast. The gridded forecast fails to tell the story. With a shortwave passage disrupting the monsoonal ridge, that would open the door for increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, which would bring cooler temperatures. For example, the LREF has a 10% chance of temperatures cooler than 75 degrees at Omak Thursday. On the flip side, there is a 13% chance of warmer than 95 degrees. Wednesday and Thursday will need to be closely watched for the potential of widespread lightning (confidence is still very low at this point).
Interestingly enough forecast confidence increases for warm and dry conditions to return as ensembles show the monsoon high once again impinging on the Inland Northwest beyond Thursday. /DB

AVIATION
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. The main aviation concern will be gusty winds. South to southwest wind gusts of 20kts expected at most terminals except KLWS and KPUW. Locally stronger gusts to 30kts expected at Omak, Grand Coulee, and Wilbur. Southerly winds will decrease overnight and increase again early Sunday morning. Terminals within the Cascade river valleys will be sheltered from the afternoon winds but experience an increase of northwest winds 00-03Z. Sunday afternoon will see increasing breezy conditions again, particularly near the KOMK and north to central WA airports, with gusts 20-25kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide. Main uncertainty with the forecast comes with frequency and speeds of wind gusts.

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Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs
Spokane 59 81 53 91 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 61 80 56 90 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Pullman 54 78 51 87 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Lewiston 65 87 61 94 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Colville 57 82 49 90 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 58 78 53 89 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Kellogg 58 79 55 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Moses Lake 59 85 54 92 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 62 84 60 92 66 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 60 86 55 93 62 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703).
ID...None.