Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dover, ID

SYNOPSIS
A system brings rain into the region Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be breezy with showers and a threat for isolated thunderstorms. The rest of the week will be mostly dry, with warming temperatures. Widespread 80s to low 90s are forecast by the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Today through Wednesday Morning: The low is still slowly moving the through Inland Northwest. It will continue scattered showers, gusty winds, and isolated thunderstorms. Overnight showers continue over northern mountains and the ID Panhandle through the morning. There is weak threat of an isolated lightning strike with around a 10 percent chance with the best timing around 3 to 6 AM PDT. The cold front will swing through mid-morning and bring increased threat of thunderstorms and gusty winds. The threat of thunderstorms will ramp up by the afternoon, with a 20 to 30 percent chance, over Northeast WA, Spokane area, Pullman area, and the Idaho Panhandle. Ensembles are showing CAPE of 100-300 J/kg with stronger instability in the afternoon and evening (2 to 6 PM PDT). Main impacts for isolated thunderstorms are small hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rains. Winds behind the cold front will be the gusty with 850mb winds of 30-45 kts and surface winds into the 20 to 30 mph range. Gusts aren't expected to reach much higher than the low 40 mph range for most areas. Cascade Valleys have a near 50 percent probability of exceeding 40 mph but quickly drops off for 45 mph gusts. The low lingers through Wednesday morning with light showers continuing over Northeast WA and ID Panhandle. Increased cloud cover will keep the highs on the cooler side and lows on the warmer side. Highs will be in the 60s and low 70s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s.

Wednesday afternoon through Monday: Ensembles are showing a ridge building along the coastline. It will bring a drier and warming trend through the rest of the period. As the ridge strengthens, highs will steadily climb a few degrees each day to be in the 80s and low 90s into Monday. Minor to moderate heat risk impacts expected over the weekend and start of next week.
Overnight lows will climb slower and end in the 50s by Monday morning. Any chance of precip will be over the North Idaho Panhandle on Friday and Saturday as the ensembles push a weak shortwave into the area from Central Canada. /JDC

AVIATION
06Z TAFs: Showers are bringing precip to many TAF sites and expected to to continue through the overnight. Ceilings will trend towards MVFR overnight as rain decreases T/Td spreads.
Gusty Southwest winds will start mid morning on Tuesday and remain gusty through the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorm potential increases enough to include prob30 groups for 21-04Z. Winds will decrease Tuesday evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate confidence in MVFR conditions developing between 06-08Z tonight. There is a low confidence risk (10-15%) for IFR conditions between 06-12Z at KEAT/KMWH/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. Moderate confidence on gusty winds. Low to moderate confidence on thunderstorm potential. /JDC

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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs
Spokane 63 43 65 44 72 45 / 100 20 10 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 58 43 62 44 70 46 / 100 60 10 0 0 0 Pullman 59 41 60 39 68 43 / 80 50 20 0 0 0 Lewiston 68 49 68 45 77 50 / 60 30 20 0 0 0 Colville 62 36 68 38 74 41 / 100 60 10 0 0 0 Sandpoint 55 41 60 43 69 45 / 100 80 20 0 0 0 Kellogg 55 42 57 43 69 45 / 100 90 70 0 0 0 Moses Lake 70 42 72 41 78 47 / 60 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 66 48 70 48 78 54 / 50 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 70 41 73 45 77 49 / 90 10 0 0 0 0

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
ID...None.