Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dover, ID
November 30, 2023 3:14 PM PST (23:14 UTC)
Sunrise 7:11AM Sunset 3:59PM Moonrise 7:36PM Moonset 11:54AM
Area Discussion for - Spokane, WA
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FXUS66 KOTX 301818 AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1018 AM PST Thu Nov 30 2023
SYNOPSIS
Stagnant conditions with periods of freezing fog and low clouds will continue through today however a significant pattern change will develop late tonight and persist through the weekend and beyond. Most locations will see several rounds of snow through the weekend before warmer air surges into the region from the south.
This will gradually turn all the snow to rain, with only high elevation snow expected by early next week. Snow amounts in the Cascades will be extremely heavy with travel difficulties expected this weekend. Much warmer but wet weather will continue through next week, with a significant snow melt expected in the valleys.
DISCUSSION
...Extremely wet and snowy weather expected to develop beginning Friday and persisting through next week...
Flurries and freezing drizzle coming out of the very widespread stratus agitated by a weak shortwave trough over Western Washington will continue through the morning hours. Top down method of p-type forecasting greatly favors freezing drizzle but deeper stratus could be cool enough for flurry generation. Stevens Pass is the exception where webcams show light snow accumulations. This could make for a slippery commute region wide this morning. The 12z sounding will give us a better idea of the thermodynamic environment locally in the next few hours. The Air Stagnation Advisory expires later this morning as wet systems will greatly improve air quality.
A parade of shortwaves will bring significant moisture to the Northwestern US through the weekend bringing heavy mountain snow to the Cascades and Northern Rockies. When all is set and done, the Cascade Passes (Washington Pass, Stevens Pass, Snoqualmie Pass) will receive 2-4 feet of snow. Friday evening through Saturday morning looks the best for snow accumulations approaching 1 inch per hour at Stevens Pass. Lookout Pass will receive up to 2 feet of snow with the heaviest snowfall during the day Saturday.
Central Washington lowlands will see around 1-3 inches, Eastern Washington will see 2-6 inches of snow, and North Idaho will see around 3-8 inches of snow. Watches will be upgraded to warnings soon. If mountain pass travel is necessary, share your travel plans with friends and family, pack an emergency supply kit, winterize your vehicle, check road conditions, and refer to the latest forecasts.
As for the timing of the snow in the lowlands, the first round will deliver accumulations around an inch or so to the eastern third of Washington and North Idaho early Friday morning. This could make for a slick morning commute. The second round late Friday morning in Central Washington and the afternoon for Eastern Washington and North Idaho will bring a moderate burst of snow region wide dropping 1-2 inches. This round may impact the Friday evening commute particularly in the Spokane area. The third round of snow Saturday morning carries the most uncertainty given the potential for the surface low moving through Northeast Washington.
This burst is forecast to bring another 1-3 inches of snow to the Eastern third of Washington and North Idaho. Locations in NE WA and the northern Panhandle may see up to 4 inches of snow with this round of snow. Advisories will be posted soon for all of this. /Butler
Sunday and Sunday night...Another very wet day is expected across the Inland NW as the 500 mb heights build northward in response to height falls over the Gulf of Alaska. This amplification allows an atmospheric river to surge into the region from the southwest which should result in an increasing chance of precipitation across most locations as a well defined warm front sweeps in from the southwest. Precipitable water values in this plume are forecast to approach 0.70” at times which is nearly double the normal for this time of year. Persistent isentropic upglide will deliver precipitation to all locations, with the heaviest totals expected near the Cascade Crest into central Idaho. Precipitation amounts in these locations will likely range from 0.50-1.00” with the heaviest expected at the Cascade Crest. Meanwhile over the eastern third of WA into north Idaho amounts will range from 0.20-0.40 inches with lesser amounts over the Columbia Basin. The precipitation type will remain quite tricky as above freezing air surges in from the southwest. We expect most of the precipitation over the southern third of WA and the LC valley to begin as rain, but all other areas will see snow with a rain to snow transition heading north through the day. The NBM suggests all locations will see this transition from snow to rain through the day, however BUFR soundings and deterministic solutions from the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF would suggest otherwise. In fact it’s conceivable that the precipitation type across the northern third of WA and the tip of the ID Panhandle may not turn over at all. This suggests we may need another round of winter highlights for the northern valleys as we have another 1.5-3” of snow forecast for Sandpoint, Colville, Bonners Ferry, and Republic. For the Spokane/CdA area we expect to see a transition from snow to rain around midday but this will allow another half inch of snow to accumulate. Meanwhile the Cascades and Panhandle mountains will amass another significant accumulation of snow. We have forecast around a foot of snow at Washington Pass and Stevens Pass, however the latter will likely change to rain at some point during this period. For Lookout Pass we have snow amounts ranging from 6-10 inches and consequently may have to extend any winter highlights for these locations.
By late Sunday night into Monday the atmospheric river takes a dip into Oregon, as the upper level flow buckles northward. This will allow most of the precipitation to taper off for the time being.
However the break will be brief as an even wetter atmospheric river surges into the region. This time values near 0.90” which is almost 2.5 times the seasonal normal. By this point, warmer air will hopefully scrub out the freezing air near the ground with snow levels surging to 6500 feet or higher which should deliver rain. Surface temperatures will peak on Tuesday with readings in the mid 40s to lower 50s, which should also result in some rapidly melting snow over all valley locations and some of the mid- elevations as well. This snow melt will couple with some impressive precipitation amounts with another 0.40-0.90” of liquid forecast for the eastern third of WA and most of the Panhandle.
This will undoubtedly lead to some rapid rises on the smaller rivers and streams in the region with a small chance of flooding possible. Meanwhile at the Cascade Crest, precipitation amounts will be quite impressive. 24 hour totals ending Tuesday evening per the NBM range from 1-2” of liquid. This should not result in flooding due to a fresh snow pack which will readily soak up this precipitation. It looks like this atmospheric river will stick around at least through Wednesday so expect to see more precipitation at times at least through the middle of the week.
Meanwhile temperatures will cool just a bit after Tuesday as the offshore trough nudges eastward. This should lower snow levels, but the odds of accumulating snow in the valleys doesn’t look great.
From a precipitation standpoint the forecast totals over the next 7 days look truly impressive. Ensemble data is showing amounts in the Cascades ranging from 4-6” at the Crest (with even more west of the Crest). For north Idaho totals will range from 2-3” and Spokane/CdA will see anywhere from 1.5-2”. These amounts are anywhere from 70-100% of the normal totals for the entire month of December. fx
AVIATION
18Z TAFs: MVFR and IFR cigs will persist through the period. A few snow showers through early this afternoon, with minor accumulations.
Next system moves in with multiple rounds of snow late tonight into Friday. First round of snow develops between 06-09Z and continues through 12-14Z Friday, mainly for the TAF sites GEG/SFF/COE/PUW with smaller chances elsewhere. Second round of snow starts into the Cascades toward 12Z and expands east toward EAT/MWH toward 13-16Z Friday and toward GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS toward 18-20Z Friday (i.e. just beyond this TAF period).
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence is high for a period of light snow overnight and Friday morning.
Confidence moderate for MVFR/IFR conditions. There may be a period of lower cigs and vis between rounds of snow around GEG, with LIFR visibility with fog. Confidence is LIFR conditions is low.
Confidence is moderate for snow timing.
Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:// www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 28 23 30 28 35 29 / 10 50 70 70 80 60 Coeur d'Alene 30 23 30 29 35 29 / 10 60 80 80 90 60 Pullman 29 23 32 29 36 32 / 10 60 80 90 90 70 Lewiston 34 28 38 34 43 37 / 10 60 60 70 90 70 Colville 30 18 30 21 33 20 / 10 40 80 70 80 50 Sandpoint 30 24 29 26 31 26 / 20 60 90 80 90 60 Kellogg 31 28 32 31 34 33 / 20 70 90 90 100 80 Moses Lake 32 21 32 24 38 30 / 10 20 60 30 30 40 Wenatchee 31 23 30 28 37 30 / 10 20 70 50 50 50 Omak 33 22 32 26 36 27 / 10 10 50 50 50 40
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Air Stagnation Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Northern Panhandle.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 PM PST Saturday for Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Northern Panhandle.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for Central Panhandle Mountains.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for Central Chelan County-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County- Western Okanogan County.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 PM PST Saturday for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area- Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau- Wenatchee Area.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Friday to 10 AM PST Sunday for Northeast Blue Mountains.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for Central Chelan County-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1018 AM PST Thu Nov 30 2023
SYNOPSIS
Stagnant conditions with periods of freezing fog and low clouds will continue through today however a significant pattern change will develop late tonight and persist through the weekend and beyond. Most locations will see several rounds of snow through the weekend before warmer air surges into the region from the south.
This will gradually turn all the snow to rain, with only high elevation snow expected by early next week. Snow amounts in the Cascades will be extremely heavy with travel difficulties expected this weekend. Much warmer but wet weather will continue through next week, with a significant snow melt expected in the valleys.
DISCUSSION
...Extremely wet and snowy weather expected to develop beginning Friday and persisting through next week...
Flurries and freezing drizzle coming out of the very widespread stratus agitated by a weak shortwave trough over Western Washington will continue through the morning hours. Top down method of p-type forecasting greatly favors freezing drizzle but deeper stratus could be cool enough for flurry generation. Stevens Pass is the exception where webcams show light snow accumulations. This could make for a slippery commute region wide this morning. The 12z sounding will give us a better idea of the thermodynamic environment locally in the next few hours. The Air Stagnation Advisory expires later this morning as wet systems will greatly improve air quality.
A parade of shortwaves will bring significant moisture to the Northwestern US through the weekend bringing heavy mountain snow to the Cascades and Northern Rockies. When all is set and done, the Cascade Passes (Washington Pass, Stevens Pass, Snoqualmie Pass) will receive 2-4 feet of snow. Friday evening through Saturday morning looks the best for snow accumulations approaching 1 inch per hour at Stevens Pass. Lookout Pass will receive up to 2 feet of snow with the heaviest snowfall during the day Saturday.
Central Washington lowlands will see around 1-3 inches, Eastern Washington will see 2-6 inches of snow, and North Idaho will see around 3-8 inches of snow. Watches will be upgraded to warnings soon. If mountain pass travel is necessary, share your travel plans with friends and family, pack an emergency supply kit, winterize your vehicle, check road conditions, and refer to the latest forecasts.
As for the timing of the snow in the lowlands, the first round will deliver accumulations around an inch or so to the eastern third of Washington and North Idaho early Friday morning. This could make for a slick morning commute. The second round late Friday morning in Central Washington and the afternoon for Eastern Washington and North Idaho will bring a moderate burst of snow region wide dropping 1-2 inches. This round may impact the Friday evening commute particularly in the Spokane area. The third round of snow Saturday morning carries the most uncertainty given the potential for the surface low moving through Northeast Washington.
This burst is forecast to bring another 1-3 inches of snow to the Eastern third of Washington and North Idaho. Locations in NE WA and the northern Panhandle may see up to 4 inches of snow with this round of snow. Advisories will be posted soon for all of this. /Butler
Sunday and Sunday night...Another very wet day is expected across the Inland NW as the 500 mb heights build northward in response to height falls over the Gulf of Alaska. This amplification allows an atmospheric river to surge into the region from the southwest which should result in an increasing chance of precipitation across most locations as a well defined warm front sweeps in from the southwest. Precipitable water values in this plume are forecast to approach 0.70” at times which is nearly double the normal for this time of year. Persistent isentropic upglide will deliver precipitation to all locations, with the heaviest totals expected near the Cascade Crest into central Idaho. Precipitation amounts in these locations will likely range from 0.50-1.00” with the heaviest expected at the Cascade Crest. Meanwhile over the eastern third of WA into north Idaho amounts will range from 0.20-0.40 inches with lesser amounts over the Columbia Basin. The precipitation type will remain quite tricky as above freezing air surges in from the southwest. We expect most of the precipitation over the southern third of WA and the LC valley to begin as rain, but all other areas will see snow with a rain to snow transition heading north through the day. The NBM suggests all locations will see this transition from snow to rain through the day, however BUFR soundings and deterministic solutions from the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF would suggest otherwise. In fact it’s conceivable that the precipitation type across the northern third of WA and the tip of the ID Panhandle may not turn over at all. This suggests we may need another round of winter highlights for the northern valleys as we have another 1.5-3” of snow forecast for Sandpoint, Colville, Bonners Ferry, and Republic. For the Spokane/CdA area we expect to see a transition from snow to rain around midday but this will allow another half inch of snow to accumulate. Meanwhile the Cascades and Panhandle mountains will amass another significant accumulation of snow. We have forecast around a foot of snow at Washington Pass and Stevens Pass, however the latter will likely change to rain at some point during this period. For Lookout Pass we have snow amounts ranging from 6-10 inches and consequently may have to extend any winter highlights for these locations.
By late Sunday night into Monday the atmospheric river takes a dip into Oregon, as the upper level flow buckles northward. This will allow most of the precipitation to taper off for the time being.
However the break will be brief as an even wetter atmospheric river surges into the region. This time values near 0.90” which is almost 2.5 times the seasonal normal. By this point, warmer air will hopefully scrub out the freezing air near the ground with snow levels surging to 6500 feet or higher which should deliver rain. Surface temperatures will peak on Tuesday with readings in the mid 40s to lower 50s, which should also result in some rapidly melting snow over all valley locations and some of the mid- elevations as well. This snow melt will couple with some impressive precipitation amounts with another 0.40-0.90” of liquid forecast for the eastern third of WA and most of the Panhandle.
This will undoubtedly lead to some rapid rises on the smaller rivers and streams in the region with a small chance of flooding possible. Meanwhile at the Cascade Crest, precipitation amounts will be quite impressive. 24 hour totals ending Tuesday evening per the NBM range from 1-2” of liquid. This should not result in flooding due to a fresh snow pack which will readily soak up this precipitation. It looks like this atmospheric river will stick around at least through Wednesday so expect to see more precipitation at times at least through the middle of the week.
Meanwhile temperatures will cool just a bit after Tuesday as the offshore trough nudges eastward. This should lower snow levels, but the odds of accumulating snow in the valleys doesn’t look great.
From a precipitation standpoint the forecast totals over the next 7 days look truly impressive. Ensemble data is showing amounts in the Cascades ranging from 4-6” at the Crest (with even more west of the Crest). For north Idaho totals will range from 2-3” and Spokane/CdA will see anywhere from 1.5-2”. These amounts are anywhere from 70-100% of the normal totals for the entire month of December. fx
AVIATION
18Z TAFs: MVFR and IFR cigs will persist through the period. A few snow showers through early this afternoon, with minor accumulations.
Next system moves in with multiple rounds of snow late tonight into Friday. First round of snow develops between 06-09Z and continues through 12-14Z Friday, mainly for the TAF sites GEG/SFF/COE/PUW with smaller chances elsewhere. Second round of snow starts into the Cascades toward 12Z and expands east toward EAT/MWH toward 13-16Z Friday and toward GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS toward 18-20Z Friday (i.e. just beyond this TAF period).
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence is high for a period of light snow overnight and Friday morning.
Confidence moderate for MVFR/IFR conditions. There may be a period of lower cigs and vis between rounds of snow around GEG, with LIFR visibility with fog. Confidence is LIFR conditions is low.
Confidence is moderate for snow timing.
Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:// www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 28 23 30 28 35 29 / 10 50 70 70 80 60 Coeur d'Alene 30 23 30 29 35 29 / 10 60 80 80 90 60 Pullman 29 23 32 29 36 32 / 10 60 80 90 90 70 Lewiston 34 28 38 34 43 37 / 10 60 60 70 90 70 Colville 30 18 30 21 33 20 / 10 40 80 70 80 50 Sandpoint 30 24 29 26 31 26 / 20 60 90 80 90 60 Kellogg 31 28 32 31 34 33 / 20 70 90 90 100 80 Moses Lake 32 21 32 24 38 30 / 10 20 60 30 30 40 Wenatchee 31 23 30 28 37 30 / 10 20 70 50 50 50 Omak 33 22 32 26 36 27 / 10 10 50 50 50 40
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Air Stagnation Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Northern Panhandle.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 PM PST Saturday for Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Northern Panhandle.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for Central Panhandle Mountains.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for Central Chelan County-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County- Western Okanogan County.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 PM PST Saturday for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area- Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau- Wenatchee Area.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Friday to 10 AM PST Sunday for Northeast Blue Mountains.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for Central Chelan County-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSZT SANDPOINT,ID | 3 sm | 24 min | NNE 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | 30°F | 19°F | 64% | 29.89 |
Wind History from SZT
(wind in knots)
Spokane, WA,
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