Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Friday Harbor, WA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
An upper level ridge remains overhead the region, and much of the west coast today. A jet core to the north and a trough offshore to the southwest is keeping the flow northerly across the region. With high pressure in control, the weather is largely quiet this weekend into early next week. The cloud coverage will decrease this evening into Sunday/early Monday. The best chance of fog development is Sunday morning in the south interior, where the combination of cooler temperatures/lighter winds may lead to dense fog. Otherwise the next chance of precipitation will be a 30-40% chance of PoPs along the coast Monday afternoon with a small trough perturbation.
Otherwise, high temperatures will increase into the mid and upper 50s in the lowlands Sunday/Monday, with lows Sunday and Monday morning in the 30s. Winds will be out of the north/northeast through the weekend, and could get a tough breezy in spots, but otherwise will remain in the 5-10 mph range.

HPR

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Expect a shift in the pattern to develop on Tuesday with the next front pushing into the region. Reasonably good agreement with the majority (70-80%) of ensemble members bringing the initial front into the region early Tuesday. The pattern looks to remain active through the week with rain, mountain snow, breezy winds at times as the pattern remains active through the late stages of next week. In these rounds of snow, the chances for reaching advisory amounts are highest (40-50%) in the North Cascades but with the most likely snow levels hovering around 4000 ft impacts to the Cascade passes look to be limited.
Ensembles diverge a bit into the weekend with differences emerging with about an equal split between continued active pattern or a return to drier conditions under higher heights.

AVIATION
A flat upper level ridge positioned to the southwest part of the state will keep flow west/northwest flow aloft through the TAF period. Terminals the remainder of Saturday will continue to remain VFR with a mix of low and high clouds at FEW or SCT (with an area of MVFR dissipating around KCLM). Most central/north terminals Sunday morning have a medium (30-50% chance) of seeing MVFR ceilings form between 12-18Z. The lighter winds in the south interior (combined with cooler temperatures) has resulted in a more elevated (60-70% chance) of fog formation in the morning. One daytime heating kicks in Sunday, all lower cigs/vis will dissipate for VFR conditions the remainder of Sunday. Winds this afternoon will remain breezy at 6 to 12 kt in most spots out of the northeast, decreasing to 5 kt tonight (less than 5 kt in the south interior).

KSEA...VFR conditions likely to persist through the TAF period (though there is a slight chance of MVFR ceilings in or near the terminal from 12-18Z). Winds out of the north 7-12 kt (couple gusts to 20 kt) through the evening, decreasing to 4-8 kt tonight/Sunday.

HPR

MARINE
High pressure continues to develop with breezy northerly winds over much of the waters and weakly offshore component driving winds through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. A few gusts in the afternoon may get to around 20 kt, but in general conditions will remain below advisory thresholds. Meanwhile, seas are generally around 5 to 6 ft over the coastal waters this weekend.
Expect the next round of advisory conditions Tuesday as the next frontal system reaches the waters, with continued winds into the second half of the week. At this point, though, the likelihood for gales remains quite low, less than 10-15%. Seas will build again later in the week, getting a little choppy around midweek in conjunction with the stronger winds and then building to around 10 ft by Friday.

HYDROLOGY
No river flooding is expected during the next seven days.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...None.