Monday, August10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Atka, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 10:14PM Monday August 10, 2020 10:21 AM AKDT (18:21 UTC) Moonrise 11:09PMMoonset 1:02PM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ175 SEguam Island To Adak Bering Side- 339 Am Akdt Mon Aug 10 2020
.small craft advisory today...
Today..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
Tonight..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
Tue..S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
Tue night..S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Wed..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atka, AK
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location: 52, -175.32     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 101258 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 458 AM AKDT Mon Aug 10 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

Last night after 9 PM AKDT, A thunderstorm developed and moved over the Lake Hood and Ted Stevens Intl Airport dropping .30-.55 inches of rain along its track. The top of the thunderstorm was high enough that is was detected on the Middleton Island radar in the Gulf of Alaska over 170 miles away. A number of cloud to ground lightning strikes were detected. At the surface, the remnants of the low in the Gulf of Alaska are discernible, although the low is slowly decaying. There is a weak ridge over the Pribilof Islands and Dutch Harbor. There is a 996 mb low near Shemya and Attu Island with a frontal boundary spanning from the western Bering to the Central Pacific. One finger of the jet stream is just south of the Gulf Of Alaska and there is a weak jet core south of Adak. Looking at satellite imagery smoke from the Siberian fires continues to advect into the Bering and Western Alaska.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

The models are in good agreement with the placement of the synoptic features. For initialization purposes, compared convective parameters on the models to radar data, satellite imagery and lightning strike data. It was the NAM that pinged into the the area of convection that materialized over Southwest Alaska yesterday evening/night and highlighted the unstable nature of the boundary layer from Talkeetna to the northern Cook Inlet while the GFS and ECMWF totally broad brushed the convective landscape.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions are anticipated this forecast period with the potential for light showers near the aerodrome and cigs that fluctuate in height. Light winds expected this TAF package.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). The strong low that moved through the Gulf of Alaska yesterday has weakened and moved near Yakutat early this morning. The 500 mb upper level low is also near Yakutat and has a trough extending to the northwest which is over the Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley as it eventually meets up with the next upper level low which is near the Seward Peninsula this morning. This pattern will keep showers over the Copper River Basin today with some across other parts of Southcentral, especially over the mountains. The showers should slowly taper off through the day and overnight Monday night before that next upper level low moves into Southcentral on Tuesday. This is where uncertainty in the forecast increases as this low will elongate and extend from Cook Inlet through Prince William Sound by Wednesday.

As the upper level low moves in from the west on Tuesday, the Susitna Valley through western Kenai Peninsula will have greater instability with some breaks in the clouds and cooler temperatures aloft under the low. This increases the chance for some afternoon and evening thunderstorms in those areas and they were added to the latest forecast package.

The westerly flow over Kodiak Island in this pattern will give that area a couple of days with a bit of sunshine.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Looking like another rainy day for Southwest Monday as an upper level shortwave tracks in from the northwest. The timing of the wave should coincide with the time of peak heating (around 4pm) to increase instability slightly over the interior of Southwest. This will give rise to some pop-up showers over the Kilbuck Mountains and west into the Middle Kuskokwim Valley and inland areas of Bristol Bay. Mostly cloudy skies in the morning should prevent instability from reaching thunderstorm thresholds. Model guidance has also trended downwards on instability parameters so thunderstorms are not currently in the forecast for Monday afternoon and evening.

For Tuesday and Wednesday there should be a slight pattern change towards drier, warmer and sunnier weather with low to mid-level flow transitioning to northeasterly and then easterly over mainland Southwest. This should cause some downsloping off of the Western Alaska Range, which will increase temperatures slightly each day over inland areas. The greatest chance for rain over the region should begin Tue afternoon over the Akpen, where a front is expected to stall through Wed. Rain should mostly be over the high terrain of the Aleutian Range and the windward (southeast) side of the mountains.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

The main weather story for the region will continue to be a frontal system that will slowly weaken through Wed. The front is currently over Adak Mon morning and should push east to Dutch Harbor Mon afternoon. The main impacts from this system will be small craft advisory winds and rain. Gale force gusts are also possible through the terrain gaps. Overnight on Mon the front should begin to weaken as the main system begins to fill in and lose baroclinicity. Other than some small craft advisory winds wrapping around the backside of the low near Shemya Tuesday morning, the front and primary low will weaken with few impacts for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain through Wed.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wed through Fri).

Models are in good agreement with a low positioned northwest of Adak Wednesday morning. The associated front, bringing widespread showers and small craft advisory winds, will move across the southwest coast beginning Thursday morning as the system propagates eastward and weakens. Model confidence decreases Thursday afternoon as models develop a weak low somewhere south of Dutch Harbor or Cold Bay. Models have this low entering the southwestern Gulf sometime between Thursday evening and Friday morning. Due the track, timing and strength of this system having various solutions, it is unclear at this time if winds will meet small craft advisory or gale force criteria on Friday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thu through Sun).

Model confidence starts high Thursday morning with a low stationed over Adak, bringing rainfall to the Aleutians and over the southwest coast. Confidence quickly decreases Thursday afternoon as models try to develop a weak low somewhere south of Dutch Harbor or Cold Bay. This confidence remains low as the strength, track and timing of this low all vary as it approaches and crosses the Gulf through Saturday. Rainfall amounts and wind thresholds are contingent on these factors along with how close to the North Gulf coast the system will approach. Expect rainy and windy conditions, although refinement into how far those conditions make it into Southcentral will come with future forecast updates. On Friday, an area of low pressure approaches the western Aleutians, although, strength, timing and placement of this feature are currently uncertain. Small craft advisory winds, as the front crosses the western Aleutians/Bering, are possible with gale force winds also a possibility as the front enters the central Aleutians and Bering Saturday afternoon. Expect rainfall with this feature as it moves across the Bering Friday through Sunday.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . PJS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CJ MARINE/LONG TERM . CK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ADKA2 - 9461380 - Adak Island, AK 70 mi52 min WSW 20 G 23 49°F 1003.5 hPa

Wind History for Adak Island, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Adak Island, Adak Airport, AK71 mi26 minWSW 14 G 202.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist48°F48°F100%1003.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADK

Wind History from ADK (wind in knots)
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G21

Tide / Current Tables for Atka Pass, east end, Atka Island, Alaska
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Atka Pass
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:50 AM HDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:08 AM HDT     1.59 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:18 AM HDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:13 AM HDT     2.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:21 PM HDT     2.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:01 PM HDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:09 PM HDT     4.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:13 PM HDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.32.72.21.81.61.61.822.32.52.62.72.62.42.32.32.42.733.33.63.943.9

Tide / Current Tables for Bechevin Bay, Atka Island, Alaska
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Bechevin Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:49 AM HDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:22 AM HDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:17 AM HDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:31 PM HDT     2.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:00 PM HDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:35 PM HDT     1.75 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:12 PM HDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:27 PM HDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.72.421.61.41.21.21.41.61.81.92221.91.81.81.92.12.32.62.93.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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