Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nikolski, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (through Friday morning)...
A stacked low pressure system is slowly encroaching on the mainland. It is in a weakening stat, the southeasterly winds through Kamishak Gap will diminish through tomorrow morning. Upper level temperatures near -30C will encourage rain showers on Wednesday afternoon as surface temperatures approach 50 degrees in parts of the the Kuskokwim Valley and Delta. Some showers may be intense but brief, but will remain scattered in nature. That system continues to weaken overhead into Thursday, but rain showers will become more isolated over time. On Friday morning, an approaching disturbance from the Gulf of Alaska will return rain to the Alaska/Aleutian range specifically. Overall expect temperatures slightly above normal with scattered rain showers for the next couple of days.

MTL

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (through Friday morning)...

Much of the Bering Sea and Aleutians is on the back side of the weakening low pressure system. Cold air streaming southward will promote scattered snow showers Wednesday and Thursday, decreasing in coverage and intensity through the remainder of the week. The next system to impact the area will be another frontal boundary approaching the western/central Aleutians late Thursday into Friday. Model guidance is keeping this system south of the Chain, enough to keep places like Adak/Atka with snow as the precipitation type for a brief period of precipitation on Friday.

MTL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday through Tuesday)...

Unsettled conditions will continue across southern Alaska as low pressure sits over the Bering Sea and an active southern track keep systems moving into the Gulf of Alaska. Broad cyclonic flow with excess moisture will allow for showery precipitation and enhanced northerly gap winds for much of Aleutians and Southwest AK. The embedded closed low that brought moderate to high rates of precipitation to coastal Southcentral midweek will slowly dissipate as it works inland over Prince William Sound on Saturday. Continued damp onshore flow will produce showery rain and mountain snow through the weekend.

An upper level trough traversing just south of the Aleutians will phase with the Bering low, pivoting it into the Gulf of Alaska on Sunday. This system looks to bring yet another round of breezy conditions and precipitation to the Gulf coast, from Kodiak to the Panhandle.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and pockets of very light rain are expected through tonight. The Turnagain Arm wind gusts will continue across the terminal with gusts to 25 kts at times before winds flip back around to northerly less than 10 kts tonight. Low level wind shear is possible tonight below 2000 ft out of the southeast at up to 20 kts.