Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Unalaska, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:45AMSunset 11:25PM Monday July 13, 2020 6:13 PM AKDT (02:13 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:35PM Illumination 38% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ170 Cape Sarichef To Nikolski Bering Side- 400 Pm Akdt Mon Jul 13 2020
Tonight..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
Tue..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Tue night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Wed night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Unalaska, AK
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location: 53.89, -166.54     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 140057 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 457 PM AKDT Mon Jul 13 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The main feature is a large upper level low over the Arctic with a trough extending south to an upper level low over Shelikof Strait. A surface low is southeast of this upper low over the Gulf of Alaska. A weak thermal trough is across the Interior and should drop south across the Alaska Range tomorrow. An upper level and weak surface area of high pressure is over the Bering Sea extending into Southwest Alaska with an upper level and surface low south of the Aleutian Islands.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Model solutions are generally in good agreement with the main synoptic features. They continue to be in good agreement with respect to developing weak low pressure over the southern Yukon Territory and the eastern Interior Tuesday. The instability parameters also are in good agreement with focusing the unstable areas that will be the focus for any thunderstorm development over the northwest Copper River Basin and north Susitna Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening. Over southwest Alaska the models are in good agreement with respect to the influence of the Bering Sea marine air advecting over the region. Lastly, the models are coming into better agreement with the low that will move toward the Central Aleutians Tuesday night. The latest model runs are a tad bit faster moving the low east than the previous solutions, though they are in reasonable agreement with respect to the intensity of the low being around 990 to 995 mb.

AVIATION. PANC . The gusty southeasterly winds will diminish this evening. The overall flow becomes northerly Tuesday, thus expect VFR conditions with light winds.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

The primary weather feature that will affect Southcentral Alaska over the next 3 days is a low pressure system currently over the western Gulf of Alaska. This low will bring gale force winds to portions of the coastal and offshore areas in the Northern Gulf. A slight chance of thunderstorms was introduced to several marine zones in the northern Gulf as ample vertical development of cumulus clouds was observed with the GOES-17 Day Cloud Phase Distinction band. In addition to towering cumulus to borderline cumulonimbus over the Gulf, satellite derived lightning detection detected a couple of lightning strikes in the southeast Gulf of Alaska. Radar imagery shows a steady stratiform rain moving northward over the northern Gulf into the southern Kenai Peninsula and southern Prince William Sound. However, this rain will remain light as westerly steering flow will help steer the system to the east, thus the moderate to heavy rain will remain over the water. Another result of this low in the northern Gulf is east- southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds this afternoon and evening as the counter-clockwise flow around the low will support east- southeasterly winds in Turnagain Arm. Winds will be higher in Turnagain Arm than other areas due to the geography supporting the localized funneling of winds.

Another slight chance for thunderstorms exists over the Anchorage Bowl and Kenai Mountains this afternoon and evening as towering cumulus (TCu) with moderate showers were observed this afternoon. As the ground absorbs more energy from diurnal heating, this energy will promote instability and the potential development for cumulonimbus (Cb) clouds throughout the area.

Conditions will be much drier in the northern Susitna Valley and especially inside of the Copper River Basin as northerly flow will develop tonight. In addition to the northerly flow at the surface, upper-level high pressure will build across the area with a southwest to northeast orientation. This upper-level high pressure ridging will support sunnier skies, warmer temperatures and lower relative humidity.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

An upper level ridge will continue to push east throughout the forecast period with the ridge axis expected to be centered over the Akpen by Thursday morning. This will have varying effects for Southwest Alaska. Coastal areas from Kipnuk to Hooper Bay, and extending inland as far as Bethel, will be experience advection of the maritime layer. This will allow for fog potential in the overnight and morning hours with cloud cover and mild temperatures during the day. Other areas of the mainland will experience a gradual drying and warming trend as the ridge moves overhead. Additional drying is likely Monday and Tuesday to the west of the Alaska Range on the backside of a low in the western Gulf today. Chances for precipitation are expected to drop off significantly by Tuesday morning, with only a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorms or showers over the Alaska Range to the north of Port Alsworth on both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

For the Akpen things are looking to dry and clear out through Wednesday morning when a front extending off of a low over the central Aleutians reaches the Cold Bay and Sand Point area. This front will push east towards the mainland by Wednesday night, bringing likely rain to most of the Akpen by Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

The last remnants of a low along a deformation band is bringing some showers to the central Aleutians near Dutch Harbor this afternoon, which may linger for the days to come over the Western Aleutians. To the north, high pressure is bringing light winds, low stratus, and fog to the Bering. Expecting a bit of a pattern change by Tuesday morning with an upper level and surface low arriving near Amchitka. This system should bring some small craft advisory winds and rain from Amchitka through Atka through Thursday morning. Frontal precipitation from this system should reach Shemya by Tuesday morning, extending to Atka by Tuesday afternoon, and Dutch Harbor on Wednesday. This front should then extend all the way towards Bristol Bay by Thursday morning, with some gusty winds through the terrain gaps along the Aleutian Chain.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday).

Models are in fairly good agreement today with a low north of the central Aleutians in the Bering Sea for Thursday. Small craft winds are expected with this system across the Bering and the Aleutians. This low will drift south across the Chain on Friday as high pressure moves into the eastern Bering Sea through Saturday with winds tapering off. After this, models rapidly diverge with the GFS holding onto the high pressure over the eastern Bering but with the EC and the Canadian bringing low pressure to the same area for Sunday. Low pressure in or near the eastern Bering is where that agreement ends as placement and strength are still quite different between the two models. Regardless, winds should stay below small craft criteria.

Over the Gulf, models are in fairly good agreement as a trough moves into the eastern Gulf. Confidence of the synoptic pattern continues into Friday as a front associated with a complex low in the North Pacific enters the southeastern Gulf. Saturday, expect high end small craft winds as the primary focus across much of the Gulf, however, gales cannot currently be ruled out.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday).

Friday, an upper level ridge will continue across southern Alaska. Expect low stratus to propagate into the southwest, with any chances for rainfall over higher terrain. Chances for rain south of the Alaska Range will persist through this time as a small area of low pressure builds over the interior. Chances for precipitation will increase across the region beginning Saturday, as moisture associated with a low south of the eastern Aleutians works it's way into the eastern Bering, southwest, along the Gulf coast and into Southcentral through Sunday. A similar low seems to be on the tail of the first, bringing similar weather conditions to the aforementioned areas through Monday.

For the western Aleutians and Bering Sea, expect a showery pattern as multiple low pressure systems traverse the area. Albeit, none of them will be very strong so rainfall is anticipated to be sporadic in nature.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale warning 119 120 351. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . SA SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . ED SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CJ MARINE/LONG TERM . CK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
UNLA2 - 9462620- Unalaska, AK 1 mi103 min 46°F

Wind History for Unalaska, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Unalaska, Unalaska Airport, AK1 mi17 minE 73.00 miFog/Mist53°F51°F93%1010.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADU

Wind History from ADU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3CalmCalmS5SE4S4S43CalmCalmE4CalmE4S3SE9E7SE7E7E5E6E11SE4SE3Calm
1 day agoSE7SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmS6S4S5CalmCalmW3E3E3CalmCalmCalmSE3NW3E3E4CalmE33
2 days agoCalmW4NW43S9S9S12S9S12S7S7S3SE6SE7E5E6SE5SE4E6E7S10SE8S6SE8

Tide / Current Tables for Dutch Harbor, Alaska (expired 1988-12-31)
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Dutch Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:23 AM AKDT     3.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:52 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:52 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:40 AM AKDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:59 PM AKDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:35 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:05 PM AKDT     1.78 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:30 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.23.43.43.12.62.11.510.80.70.91.21.61.92.12.22.121.81.81.822.42.8

Tide / Current Tables for Kisselen Bay, Beaver Inlet, Unalaska Island, Alaska
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Kisselen Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:52 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:20 AM AKDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:01 PM AKDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:03 PM AKDT     2.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:35 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:42 PM AKDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:29 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.43.62.71.81.20.90.91.31.82.32.83.13.23.12.62.222.12.533.74.34.74.8

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.