Tuesday, July23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Unalaska, AK

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:07AMSunset 11:05PM Tuesday July 23, 2019 5:20 AM AKDT (13:20 UTC) Moonrise 11:12PMMoonset 11:28AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ170 Cape Sarichef To Nikolski Bering Side- 358 Am Akdt Tue Jul 23 2019
Today..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Tonight..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed night..SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Thu..W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Fri..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Sat..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Unalaska, AK
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location: 53.89, -166.54     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 222356
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
356 pm akdt Mon jul 22 2019

Analysis and upper levels
An upper level high is over the southern mainland which is
serving to limit convection this afternoon evening. Weak low
pressure over the gulf of alaska is pushing low clouds and light
rain along the north gulf coast. An active area of convection is
evident in the satellite loop in the southern yukon territory that
is expected to provide the instability and moisture tomorrow over
the copper river basin and susitna valley. A low is approaching
the eastern aleutians and a front extends into the bering sea from
a low over siberia.

Model discussion
Overall, models remain in good agreement on the synoptic scale.

They are also in good agreement with moving the easterly wave in
from the southern yukon territory into the copper river basin then
across the southern mainland. Slight differences arise in the
timing of the precipitation advancement across the region. The ec
and GFS have larger areal extent and are faster than the NAM and
canadian models. One thing consistent in the models is the
expectation of increased convection and chances for thunderstorms
as this wave moves through tomorrow followed by cloudy cooler
weather Wednesday. We made a blend of the NAM and gfs.

The models are in good agreement in the bering sea and aleutians
with the movement and timing of the trough across the bering sea.

Aviation
Panc.. Smoke from the swan lake fire may be an issue again
Tuesday morning, but currently we expect visibilities to go below
6 sm. Rain and possibly a thunderstorm move into the terminal
late Tuesday afternoon. Rain may be heavy at times and may even
see brief periods of MVFR conditions.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
High pressure continues to dominate southcentral alaska allowing
above normal temperatures for many locations. This setup has also
inhibited rain for low lying areas, however, higher elevations are
still expected to see some showers. There is also a slight chance
for thunderstorms to develop over the talkeetna mountains this
evening.

On Tuesday a shortwave trough will track through southcentral
alaska bringing rain to most locations from east to west. There is
a good chance this shortwave will bring thunderstorms to the
talkeetna mountains and areas of the alaska range around the
susitna valley. There is also a chance for thunderstorm activity
to reach as far south as the chugach mountains. With all of these
areas, storm motion is such that storms could move off the
mountains to the west and potentially move over areas of the
susitna valley and anchorage. There is higher confidence of this
happening for the more northern locations, such as the susitna
valley. Wednesday will continue to see rain moving into the area
as a low over the eastern gulf lifts to the north. The majority of
rainfall will be over the eastern areas of southcentral alaska on
Wednesday.

Fire weather
Warm and mainly dry conditions are expected today with the high
pressure over the area. A few mountain showers are possible,
including a slight risk of wet thunderstorms in the talkeetna
mountains. Cooler conditions with higher humidities are expected
across the area on Tuesday as the high pressure pushes off to the
northeast and an easterly wave moves into the region. A potential
concern with this easterly wave is that in front of it, from the
western copper river basin through the susitna valley and south to
the chugach mountains, it could be a trigger for widespread
convection. The higher likelihood of thunderstorm activity will be
for the susitna valley and surrounding mountains.

.Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2: tonight
through Wednesday)...

a pattern shift is in store for southwest alaska over the next few
days as the upper level ridge continues to push off to the east.

The main weather feature of concern is the easterly wave that is
expected to move over the area tomorrow afternoon and evening.

This will bring a potential for thunderstorm activity to develop
along the alaska range. While the eastern portion of the region
is being impacted by the shortwave, the kuskokwim delta will be
preparing for a front to move inland by Wednesday afternoon. A
second round of precipitation will follow over southwest alaska by
late Wednesday night as another front associated with a surface
low pushes inland. Overall, southwest alaska should expect a
cooler and wetter trend heading into the week, with a potential
for patchy fog to remain along coastal areas.

.Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2: tonight
through Wednesday)...

the active pattern across the bering and aleutians will remain
over the next few days. A strong front continues to push over the
central bering, which will move inland by Wednesday afternoon,
while a new low enters the western bering. This low will continue
its track eastward through Thursday and could experience small
craft wind gusts. Expect cloudy skies, patchy fog, and
precipitation to persist throughout the forecast period.

Fire weather
The convective potential for Tuesday afternoon and evening will
bring fire weather concerns to southwest alaska as an easterly
wave moves into the region, increasing instability along the
alaska range stretching down to iliamna. Thunderstorms that
develop could produce frequent lightning and heavy rain at times.

Marine (days 3 through 5; Thursday through Saturday)
A low will move into the bering sea early Thursday bringing gusty
southwesterly winds to the pribilofs and bristol bay regions as
its center tracks over saint matthew island. Though winds look to
remain as small craft at this time, brief gale force gusts cannot
be ruled out. Winds will gradually diminish Friday and Saturday as
the low becomes vertically stacked and weakens over st. Lawrence
island. Overall confidence is moderate.

The flow pattern for the gulf will be more quiet over this time
period with high confidence of winds likely remaining below small
craft through the weekend.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7; Thursday through Monday)
Though still difficult to get specific, an active weather pattern
appears likely across southcentral late this week into early next
week. A broad upper level low will persist over the bering causing
a series of weak surface lows to track over the region. Thus,
there is high confidence of accumulating rainfall as well as
periodic gusty winds. Along with this, the upper level jet will
dip much further south. Combined with a surface cold front moving
through on Thursday, temperatures look to remain in the 60s into
next week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Sa
southcentral alaska... Dwk
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ah
marine long term... Ap


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
UNLA2 - 9462620- Unalaska, AK 1 mi50 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 52°F 50°F1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Unalaska, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Unalaska, Unalaska Airport, AK1 mi24 minSSE 610.00 miOvercast52°F46°F83%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from ADU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE10SE12SE8SE10SE11SE10S8S8S10S7SE8SE9SE7SE9S5S5SE5S5S5CalmS43S6
1 day agoN4CalmE4NE3CalmE5Calm3E4E6E655S7SE8SE10S8SE9SE8SE6SE10SE10SE9SE9
2 days agoW7W4W5W5SW3W4CalmCalmE5E5E6E6SE4E6E6E7E8E6E6CalmE4E4NE3N4

Tide / Current Tables for Dutch Harbor, Alaska (expired 1988-12-31)
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Dutch Harbor
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Tue -- 12:26 AM AKDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:55 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:05 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:25 AM AKDT     1.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:01 PM AKDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:27 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:27 PM AKDT     1.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:18 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.23.232.72.31.91.61.51.51.61.81.921.91.71.51.31.21.21.41.72.12.63

Tide / Current Tables for Kisselen Bay, Beaver Inlet, Unalaska Island, Alaska
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Kisselen Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:55 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:57 AM AKDT     1.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:06 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:06 AM AKDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:26 PM AKDT     1.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:27 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:42 PM AKDT     4.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:17 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.62.92.21.81.71.82.22.52.932.92.62.11.71.41.51.72.22.93.64.24.64.74.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.