Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for King Cove, AK

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near King Cove, AK

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Area Discussion for - Anchorage, AK

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FXAK68 PAFC 050041 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 441 PM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2023

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS

A broad and complex upper level trough sits over southern Alaska, bringing widely scattered to overcast cloud decks and areas of rain/sprinkles to Southwest and Southcentral, as a shortwave ridge noses its way into far east Southcentral, at least for the short-term. This nose of warmer and drier weather is already bringing an area of clear skies to the Copper River Basin, Prince William Sound and areas along the northern Cook Inlet. However, as the overall troughing remain overhead, expect the cooler and wetter weather to prevail and return to all areas of Southcentral by midweek.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Models are in fairly good agreement, despite a broad and complex upper level low that remains in place. Minor differences exist in the details, but won't have much bearing over the overall forecast.

AVIATION
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds below 10 kts persist.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Wednesday afternoon)...

Warmer, clearer, and quieter weather continues to rule the roost for mainland/interior Southcentral Alaska this afternoon through Monday. The reason behind this nice weather for the interior is an upper-level ridge that builds northward from the North Pacific and through the eastern part of the state. With the influence of the ridge comes warmer temperatures as well as drier relative humidity (RH) values, especially for Monday. The driest and warmest locations will be along the Copper River Valley and the Knik Valley where Red Flag Warnings are in effect from Monday afternoon to Monday evening. Temperatures around Palmer could reach the mid to upper 60s along with minimum RH values between 20% and 30%. Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to top out in the low to middle 70s for area like Gulkana, Glennallen, and Chistochina along with minimum RH in the upper teens. Temperatures in Anchorage look to top out in the low to middle 60s, with warmer values in East Anchorage.

As a coastal ridge builds during the day Monday, gusty southeasterly gap winds will ensue through Turnagain Arm, the Knik River Valley, and the Copper River Valley. These winds will begin to diminish overnight Monday as the front draws nearer. Kodiak Island will be the first the to encounter precipitation from the northward advancing frontal system Monday morning, followed by the Kenai Peninsula, and eventually Prince William Sound by Monday evening through most of Wednesday. Precipitation will be longer duration for the eastern Kenai Peninsula and possibly for western Prince William Sound due to persistent southeasterly flow throughout the atmosphere. Because of this southeasterly flow regime, Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys will be mostly downsloped from the precipitation. Also of note, there could be enough instability Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon that a few diurnally driven thunderstorms could develop near the upslopes of the Talkeetna Mountains. A storm or two could also develop near the southern facing slopes of the Alaska Range in the northeastern Copper River Basin Wednesday afternoon. However, confidence is low at this time with regards to these potential convective episodes.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday)...

Little change to the overarching pattern is expected for the next several days as much of the Bering Sea and Southwest remains under the influence of a very large region of cyclonic flow aloft. The pattern will remain showery and unsettled, but a bit less active going into the middle of the week as a large low crawling across the Bering slowly weakens.

Across Southwest, a shortwave trough focusing showers across Bristol Bay will lift north past the Kuskokwim Delta overnight tonight with shower activity shifting north of the outlook area by tomorrow morning. On Monday, a closed low drifting south of the AKPen will lift north as a potent, negatively-tilted shortwave into Bristol Bay, helping to build an upper ridge out ahead across much of Mainland Alaska. Very warm temperatures compared to what we've seen so far this year are expected across the most interior portions of the region towards the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, where highs could make a run at 70 where clouds clear out enough to allow for afternoon solar heating. Cooler and cloudier conditions will persist farther southeast, with rain showers shifting from Bristol Bay to the Kuskokwim Delta through Tuesday morning as the main shortwave lifts northwest. The huge low over the Bering will shift east between Tuesday and Wednesday, pushing additional weak upper waves and rounds of showers across Southwest.

Across the Bering, a gale force front now approaching Adak will rapidly weaken as it pushes northeast and begins to slow down through Monday morning. The parent low will support a corridor of southerly gale force winds encroaching on the western Aleutians as it enters the southwest corner of the Bering tonight, but otherwise winds across the entire Bering will drop to small craft range or less on Monday as both the low and its front continue to weaken. The already expansive low will become even larger on Tuesday as it merges with the shortwave moving west into the eastern Bering, with the resulting center then drifting slowly along the Aleutian Chain on Wednesday. In short, the showery pattern continues, but with less wind.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

A cool, cloudy, and wet pattern is expected across the forecast area through the end of the week. A broad, persistent low over the central/eastern Bering Sea will keep showery, unsettled conditions in place for the Bering and Aleutians through Sunday.
For southern mainland Alaska, southerly flow will continuously wring out moisture along the coastal mountain ranges, resulting in near-constant light to moderate precipitation. When and where inland locations see any precipitation will depend on the timing of shortwave troughs rotating northward from the Gulf of Alaska.

For Thursday, the southerly, cyclonic flow regime will be conducive for diurnally forced convective shower activity, with potential enhancement as a result of any passing shortwaves (for which there is currently low confidence in timing and placement this far out). By Friday, a front lifts across southern mainland Alaska, leading to increased chances of steadier rainfall for inland locations. Uncertainty increases rapidly beyond this point going into the weekend, with model guidance having little to no run-to-run consistency in resolving individual shortwaves affecting the area. However, there is good confidence that cooler and cloudier than normal conditions will continue, with above normal chances for rain showers each day.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for King Cove, AK

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Airport Reports

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Wind History from AVC (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Dolgoi Harbor, Dolgoi Island, Alaska

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