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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 544 Am Akst Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory late Thursday night...
Today..SE wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 6 ft. Rain.
Tonight..SE wind 20 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
Fri..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Fri night..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
Sat..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Sun..S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Mon..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 301736 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 836 AM AKST Thu Nov 30 2023

UPDATE
Update to the aviation section to include the 18z TAF issuance.

SHORT TERM
A front associated with the low in the northwest gulf will continue to bring diminishing precipitation to the panhandle through the day Thursday. Best chances for accumulating snow remain Haines and Skagway, with Haines DOT reporting estimated 2 to 4 inches on the highway as of 430 AM. Aside from some mixed precipitation along the Icy Strait corridor this morning, the rest of the panhandle can expect straight rain for the period. The winds along the front at the surface remain stalled around Icy Strait, with Lynn Canal likely flipping to the South sometime later in the day. Otherwise winds in the inner channels are expected to slacken overall during the day as the front dissipates before building slightly as another weaker front slides north towards the panhandle.

Overall little change to inherited forecast with next system entering the southern gulf later tonight. Uncertainty remains as to how far north this next system will push, but at minimum another bout of rain is expected to at make it into the southern panhandle along with some gusty winds for coastal waters.

LONG TERM
/Wednesday through Tuesday/ Generally looking at an active long range period. A broad upper trough covering the Bering Sea and the Western part of AK will dominate the weather over the next week. The various short waves rotating around the low will push various storms through the area from the SW with occasional intrusions of cooler air in the wake of these systems gradually cooling the area down through the week and into the weekend.

First significant system will be showing up for Wed into Thu with gale force winds likely for most of the gulf waters at that time.
Possibility that winds could reach max gale in some parts of the northern gulf due to barrier jet influences. Inner channels will likely just see small craft winds of 25 to 30 kt as the front moves through Wed night. As for precip that will mainly take the form of rain for most areas. Some parts of the north (like the Mendenhall Valley/out the road in Juneau, Yakutat, and the Haines and Klondike Highways) may end up with a few inches of snow. The Haines Highway has the best chance of seeing 4 or more inches of snow so we will be watching that area for any needed headlines later.

Onshore flow persist post-front with showers into late week. The next significant system on the radar is toward Friday as another gale force front moves in from the SW. Some uncertainly with this system as, at the moment, it looks like most of the precipitation and energy is being directed south of the area, but a not insignificant chunk of it may effect the southern half of the panhandle. The weekend features a still active weather pattern with more storm systems possibly moving in from the SW.

AVIATION
Impacts to aviation in SE AK over the next 24 hours will be mainly associated with the exit of one front and the approach of the next front late in the forecast period.

For starters, there is a lingering front over the panhandle. For those near and ahead of the front, MVFR conditions are being reported and will last into today. For those behind the front, high- end MVFR with improving conditions are expected today.

In between the two frontal passages, conditions around the panhandle will improve to high-end MFVR to VFR this evening into the overnight.

Late during this forecast period is when the next front will begin to tease the panhandle with lowering conditions and early evidence of LLWS.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.

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Lancaster Cove
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Thu -- 02:33 AM AKST     14.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:49 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:59 AM AKST     4.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:48 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:05 PM AKST     15.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:24 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:51 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:43 PM AKST     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lancaster Cove, Cholmondeley Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

Niblack Anchorage
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:33 AM AKST     13.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:48 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:03 AM AKST     4.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:47 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:05 PM AKST     15.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:25 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:52 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:47 PM AKST     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Niblack Anchorage, Moira Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

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