Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ketchikan, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 280347 CCA AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 218 PM AKDT Sun Apr 27 2025

SHORT TERM
/Through Monday Night/...A Gale-force frontal system approaching Southeast Alaska will bring rainfall and up to around 35 knot winds to the eastern Gulf and southern Inner Channels and up to around 25 to 30 knot Small Craft winds elsewhere over the Inner Channels through Monday as the front approaches and moves through the area. After that, winds diminish to 25 knots or less as ridging moves into the area and the pressure gradient relaxes through the period. Over land areas, winds will get rather gusty as the front approaches and pushes over the Panhandle, especially for some central and southern Outer Coast areas and Wrangell, which will have up to 40 to 45 mph Strong Wind criteria gusts for late tonight through early Monday morning. As far as precipitation is concerned, totals of around between 1 and 2 inches are anticipated over the Panhandle as you move from northwest to southeast, respectively, over a 39-hour period. This is not anticipated to cause any appreciable flooding concerns. Low and high temperatures will range between the lower 40s to lower 50s through the period with the increased cloud-cover and precipitation along and out ahead of the approaching frontal system.

Forecast confidence is average to above average as we have good model agreement for the short term forecast period.

LONG TERM
/Tuesday through Sunday/ SE AK weather for the long range will continue to be a cool wet pattern. Upper levels keeping either a low or trough over the region, mainly advancing from a main low anchored over the Bering. While there are short periods of ridging tracking in there are just no foreseeable long or substantial breaks in the next week, and from CPC outlook likely the next two weeks. Tuesday rain showers are one of those few times that breaks in precip may occur as the previous low / front moves inland and a ridge moves in. Tightening pressure gradient increasing NS channel winds. Onshore flow keeps some shower activity Tuesday with next low/front moving in that evening. For now parent low stays further west so winds along this front reaching gale force. Still some model differences on position and timing so not enough confidence to fully commit on details. EFI puts more heavy precip into the region with long fetch of moisture from the south.
Hydrology concerns with this next batch of heavy rain, especially if the earlier system rivers rises remain elevated. Rain lasts into the weekend as the parent low reaches the Central AK Gulf. Little change to previous forecast as it either remained in line with new model runs or there is still enough spread in operational model that a national blend still covers the gist of the long range.
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