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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 249 Am Akst Thu Dec 7 2023
Today..S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft early in the morning then 2 ft or less. NEar ocean entrances, seas 6 ft. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Rain showers in the morning.
Tonight..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers late.
Fri..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Fri night..SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
Sat..SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
Sun..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 070030 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 330 PM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

SHORT TERM
The weakening low in the northern gulf continues to spin and weaken through Thursday. Cold air spilling out of the Southwest part of Alaska is evident in the cloud formations.
Also indicative of cold air aloft is the large area of open cell showers moving from the NE Pacific into the southern half of the panhandle and these showers are resulting in much of the excitement in the forecast tonight for the panhandle. The atmosphere gets a boost from orographic lifting when they approach the coastline and an extra boost is enough to enhance the showers and trigger isolated Thunderstorms. Expect the rough along the coastline from near Sitka south to Dixon entrance and into southern Inner Channels tonight and Thursday. This convective activity should conclude on Thursday afternoon.

A quick moving trough is expected to move over the northern gulf Thursday night leading to a push of cooler air over the Northeast gulf coast and into the northern panhandle. The system also looks to be convective as well so added Isolated thunderstorms to that feature for Thursday night.

LONG TERM
/Friday through Sunday/...Friday sees a small troughing feature along the NE gulf coast move southeastward generating 25-30 knot winds in the inner channels and a rain snow mix for the northern panhandle. At this time, limited snow accumulations along the Haines and Klondike Highway Guidance is slowly converging on a possible solution for a fast developing, strong low pushing up from the south. Unfortunately, at this time, there are still positional issues for the low that have drastic implications on how impactful this system will be. Two scenarios continue to appear to be becoming clear, backed up by ensemble and deterministic models. Both these scenarios are similar to yesterday, now with the NAM following the GFS.

On one hand is the deterministic GFS and NAM, with good run consistency between the 6z and 12z runs of the GFS and 12z NAM, where the low system passes just north of Haida Gwaii and pushes eastward into Canada, bypassing the panhandle entirely. Under this scenario, stronger northerly outflow winds will kick up across the north bringing colder temperatures and possibly some clearing skies.
The southern panhandle will experience some stronger, yet brief, rainfall rates. Petersburg and northward will also experience some snowfall, but largely cut short from the lack of moisture working its way northward. Some ensemble members also support this notion of low position and track, but so far, it is the unlikely scenario.

The far more likely scenario, supported with ensemble means in the GEFS, GEPS, and EPS along with good run to run consistency of the 0z and 12z EC, is a developing low moving directly north of the Sitka area, then inland into the Yukon. Under this scenario, there is an increasing likelihood of stronger winds, up to storm force, for the entire panhandle, inside waters, and near shore waters up to cross sound. Furthermore, as the low passes into the Yukon, a strong punch of southerly winds up the north south facing channels will likely follow its exit from the panhandle. Additionally, more moisture will be able to work its way northward into colder air. At this time, temperatures look to warm significantly, limiting the amount of snowfall for the northern half of the panhandle. Similarly wide ranges can be said about temperatures as well, as if this scenario plays out, a strong southerly push will likely transition any falling snow to rain. As this scenario seemed the most likely, this forecast was included.

AVIATION
MVFR conditions will dominate SE AK for the TAF period as southerly flow will continue to bring showers which will result in obscured ridge tops. Freezing level will remain low enough to see any precip transition to snow by around 3000 ft, resulting in more reductions in VIS. Isolated thunderstorms were observed this morning and remain a possibility this afternoon and evening for primarily the southern panhandle, though chances remain low enough to not warrant mention in TAFs directly. Gusty erratic winds remain likely around convective showers, but winds overall are expected to slacken heading into Thursday with no significant LLWS expected during the TAF period.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ318.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.

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Alava Bay
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Thu -- 01:29 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:46 AM AKST     4.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:55 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:16 AM AKST     13.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:04 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:49 PM AKST     4.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:16 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:54 PM AKST     11.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Alava Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Mary Island Anchorage
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Thu -- 01:30 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:42 AM AKST     4.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:55 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:21 AM AKST     13.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:04 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:45 PM AKST     4.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:17 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:59 PM AKST     11.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mary Island Anchorage, Revillagigedo Channel, Alaska, Tide feet

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