Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Metlakatla, AK

SHORT TERM
Mostly benign pattern with the continued upper level low retrograding to the west through the short term period.
Moisture continues to stream in from British Columbia, wrapping around the aforementioned upper level low. As the air descends, it adiabatically warms, drying the air. This looks to sap much of the moisture coming from the south, resulting in low chances for rain across the southern panhandle, but not zero. However, likelihood for rain will continue to decrease through the morning hours tomorrow for the southern panhandle, but will continue for the northern panhandle as moisture continues to stream in from the east. Expecting low rainfall accumulations with the moisture streaming in from the east, with mostly just clouds.

LONG TERM
/Sunday into next weekend/...The overall trend next week is looking like drier and warmer weather is on the way to SE AK.

Key Messages: -Lingering low in the gulf will keep rain and rain showers in the forecast early next week.
-Evidence is increasing that drier, sunnier, and much warmer temps are on the way for late next week.
-Highs in the upper 60s to 70s around the area are likely.
-Wind speeds look to be on the lighter side late in the week.

Details: A stationary closed low at 500mb, just off the coast of Haida Gwaii, will continue to persist and give SE AK chances for rain.
This feature will regain some energy from fujiwhara interaction with another system that will consolidate and strengthen the low, which will send a new front into the southern panhandle by Monday.
By and large, we expect winds to remain near moderate to fresh breezes near southern Clarence Strait with much lighter winds everywhere else. Along with freshening up of the winds in the south, expect some moisture to move into the area Monday, bringing light rain and clouds to the panhandle. Expect cloudy and wet conditions into Wednesday before a pattern change brings a ridge of high pressure into the gulf.

As this ridge builds, warm temperatures will move into the region for later in the week and the weekend. Dry conditions with temperatures making it into the upper 60s to 70s will be found across the region.



AVIATION
VFR conditions prevail across the panhandle this evening. The only place that really has any concerns for ceilings due to rain is across the extreme northern inner channels and NE gulf coast where a deformation band is continuing to bring cloud cover (with some ceilings down to 1500 ft near Yakutat at times) and some on and off light rain showers. That band of clouds and showers should diminish and move off to the west by tomorrow afternoon. Then generally VFR conditions before more rainfall starts to move into the southern panhandle late Sunday night.

MARINE
Outside: Main story is the weak closed low bringing fresh breezes to the coast of Prince of Wales Island, which will continue through Saturday night. One chance to the forecast is the lighter winds along the NE gulf coast with higher confidence that low clouds will descend to the surface as widespread fog. Expect these conditions to last through the morning hours.

Inside: Moderate Breezes in Clarence Strait will diminish into the evening hours with the weakening surface low off the coast of Prince of Wales Island. Otherwise mostly light winds through Saturday night. Not expecting much fog for the inner channels due to slight warm air advection, resulting in a low cloud deck rather than surface fog.



AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ642-661>663.