Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saxman, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 282257 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 257 PM AKDT Mon Apr 28 2025

SHORT TERM
/through Tuesday night/...

Key Points: -Some breaks in the showers through the short term but with continued onshore flow, rain showers will continue to dot the landscape.
-Strong wind gusts upwards of 40 to 50 mph are likely in Skagway and the Klondike highway, some potential for 55 to 60 mph wind gusts.
-Above normal overnight low temps, below normal afternoon high temps.

Details: Surface low pressure is tracking eastward this Monday afternoon.
This low has been keeping the rainy and cloudy weather over the panhandle today. As this low moves east, the rain and rain showers will continue through Tuesday, though some breaks in the rain is likely, especially for those closer to the coast. The farther inland you are, the fewer the breaks.

As the previously mentioned area of low pressure exits the panhandle, a ridge of high pressure will build over Southeast.
This ridge will start increasing the pressure gradient in the northern Lynn Canal area. To the west of this expected ridge, will be a front that will tighten the pressure gradient even more as it approaches Tuesday into Tuesday evening. This tightening of the pressure field will cause the wind speeds and wind gusts to increase. The pressure field looks to relax Tuesday night, which would decrease the wind gust speeds.

For now, confidence is high that wind gusts will reach 40 to 50 mph but this weather pattern has produced wind gusts upwards of 55 to 60 mph in the past. Right now, there is about a 30% chance of wind gusts being at or above 55 mph. So there is some concern for high wind gusts near 60 mph but confidence is not high enough to issue an official product at this time. We'll continue to assess the weather data and update as needed.


LONG TERM
/Wednesday through Monday/ The first days of May are expected to be rather unsettled in terms of expected weather conditions courtesy of multiple low pressure systems and moist onshore flow from the Gulf. Cool wet weather pattern SE AK weather for the long range. Aloft, a broad upper low is expected to be in place across the Bering for the middle to end of the week, and then pivoting to the Gulf by next weekend and next Monday. While there are short periods of ridging tracking in there are just no foreseeable long or substantial breaks in the next week, and from CPC outlook likely the next two weeks. Low/front moving in early Wednesday with gale force winds developing along the Eastern AK Gulf. Some model differences on position and timing so but some more confidence details for the front position and reaching the NE Gulf / Northern panhandle first. EFI puts more heavy precip into the region with long fetch of moisture from the south. Hydrology concerns with this next batch of heavy rain, especially due to the earlier systems causing some rivers rises and the record and or record rainfall for the month of April. Periods of rain lasts into the weekend as the parent low reaches the Central AK Gulf but rates and overall coverage diminishes. Updated previous forecast with some more detail on front for Wednesday but overall it either remained in line with new model runs or there is still enough spread in operational model that a national blend still covers the gist of the long range.
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