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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 308 Pm Akst Fri Dec 8 2023
.gale warning late tonight through Saturday...
Tonight..SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt late. Seas 6 ft building to 11 ft late. Rain.
Sat..SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
Sat night..SW wind 20 kt becoming nw late. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft late. Rain in the evening.
Sun..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean entrances.
Sun night..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
Tue..SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
Wed..S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 090714 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1014 PM AKST Fri Dec 8 2023

UPDATE
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Juneau through 9 PM AKST Saturday. Snow has begun falling through the Icy Strait Corridor ahead of our next frontal system. Earlier this evening a rain/snow mix occurred for a few hours leading to minor slushy accumulations. Progressing through the night, temperatures have been able to lower below freezing leading to all snow to fall rather than a rain snow mix. Additionally, snow ratios are also higher than expected, between 13:1 to 20:1. These factors mentioned above are causing some quick accumulations over Juneau.
If the conditions continue for the rest of tonight, an additional 4 inches is expected tonight followed by another 3 to 4 inches through Saturday across Juneau. We will need to keep an eye on current conditions as the track of the approaching front will dictate how warm temperatures get through the day Saturday and will greatly affect forecasted snow totals.

PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 PM AKST FRIDAY...

SHORT TERM.../ Through Saturday night / A potent low tracks north into the southeast gulf and into panhandle around southern Clarence Strait to northern Price of Wales Island. Strong winds are spreading into the southern part of the Panhandle and over the southern half of the panhandle. Wind gusts developing to 60 mph over Prince of Wales Island tonight and then in Southern Inner channels so posted a High Wind Warning. Zones near these areas have a strong wind Headline for gusts to 40 to 50 mph, mainly for the early Saturday Morning and during the day.

Winds should be decreasing through the afternoon and early evenings so anticipate they will be less than 25 mph by evening, although the coastal areas, south of Sitka, could have brisk west winds moving onshore.

A fair bit of rain will be falling across the southern half with the incoming system with accumulations of 1 to 2 inches. An initial mix of snow or rain and snow for the southern so potential for 1 to 2 inches of a slush and then the rain takes over with a warm up. Lower QPF accumulations for the northern panhandle, with temperatures on cooler side a heavier mix or snow for the northern portions of the panhandle.

LONG TERM
/Sunday through Friday/
Ensemble model guidance continues to trend towards an active pattern to set up by the start of next week with overall ridging over the panhandle into British Columbia and troughing over the Alaska Peninsula and NW gulf. The strength of this ridge building in Sunday will determine the amount of clearing (from south to north) and drying possible over the panhandle and could influence the timing of the return of precipitation on Monday. As of this forecast period, the southern panhandle has the highest likelihood of seeing clearing with a brief break between systems Sunday into Monday morning.

For early next week, a strong pressure gradient is expected to develop with the above mentioned synoptic setup, leading to widespread gale force winds throughout the gulf with a front sweeping across into the NE gulf coast. This feature will also bring a weak to moderate AR event to the central and southern panhandle, with IVT values of 500 for an extended period. Model guidance is trending towards the northern panhandle and gulf coast seeing the first surge of moisture with the initial gale force front the second half of Monday, before a secondary stronger surge impacts the central and southern panhandle early Tuesday lasting into early Wednesday. 12 hour rainfall totals for this secondary surge are showing the potential to exceed 10 and in some cases 25 year return intervals. This would likely lead to river rises in the wake of the Saturday storm, especially in the southern panhandle. Overall this is expected to be a rain event due to rising snow levels ahead of and during the heaviest precipitation.
However, the northern panhandle, particularly at higher elevations along the Haines and Klondike Highways, could see significant snow accumulation initially before a likely transition to mix or straight rain.

While the main focus of this event remains the widespread heavy rain potential, strong winds will likely develop in the gulf along the coastal waters and potentially reach further inland at higher elevations. With the ridge in the interior and the low spinning over the northwest gulf, a tight gradient will set up and persist over the southern panhandle during this timeframe as well, leading to strong gale force southerly winds pushing up from Hecate Strait up into Clarence Strait with the potential to reach storm force. Therefore strong winds would also be expected for southern Prince of Wales as well as Annette Island and Ketchikan for this time period. Stay tuned for further updates to this evolving situation as we head into the weekend.

Into the latter half of the week, active weather is expected to continue with yet another front possible late Wed into Thu. There is also some indications that some lows could spin up along that front into Fri, though confidence is poor on that aspect. What is more confident is continued wet weather through the end of the week at least.

AVIATION...Aviation concerns over the next 24 hours will be mainly due to incoming storm force low. Biggest impacts from that low will start being felt in the southern panhandle late during the overnight into Saturday, with the impacts moving from south to north.

CIG and Wind speeds will see the largest changes and drop in flight categories as the rain and wind move into the panhandle - for now, thinking conditions will lower to IFR to low-end MVFR at the worst of it.

This evening into the overnight, expecting conditions to mostly stay steady. That being said, there is a band of precip lingering ahead of the low that has been briefly dropping aviation conditions. Gustavus had a quick hit of snow when this band passed over, while other areas are seeing rain.

MARINE...Late tonight through Saturday, a developing storm- force low will move up from the south into the southeastern Gulf.
This low looks to track northward, generating near Gale force easterly winds in Sumner Strait, southern Chatham Strait, and western Fredrick Sound, then dive eastward near the southern tip of Baranof Island. The frontal band will generate storm force winds around the Dixon Entrance and the southern part near the ocean entrance of Clarence Strait. High/rough seas are expected as this system moves northward. As the low moves in, it quickly weakens in intensity and moves northeastward over the central Inner Channels. Winds will quickly/abruptly shift from easterly and southeasterly to westerly before diminishing.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 3 AM AKST Saturday through Saturday afternoon for AKZ323-327-329.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ325.
Strong Wind from 6 AM AKST Saturday through Saturday afternoon for AKZ326.
High Wind Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ328.
High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 3 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ641-661.
Gale Warning for PKZ036-642-662.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-033>035-643-644-651-652- 663-664-671.

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