Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saxman, AK

PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 407 PM AKDT...

SHORT TERM...Somewhat complicated pattern mainly focusing on the Monday timeframe. The upper level closed low that has been sitting to the west of Haida Gwaii will swing around a deeper trough. As the trough becomes negatively tilted tonight, a developing low will begin to move up along the coastline of Prince of Wales Island and up to southwestern Baranof Island. Unfortunately, as of now, a wide variety of solutions are possible, mainly impacting the southern half of the panhandle and the outer coast. These solutions can mainly be clustered into two outcomes: The first being the low strengthens, then is directed out to the gulf waters to the west, limiting any impacts and lower wind speeds. The second is the low will be directed along the gulf coast, resulting in a stronger LLJ and much higher wind speeds along the coast. At this time, the more likely solution, at around 70% chance of occurrence, is the less impactful solution. Regardless of either solution, however, a band of precipitation looks to move up along the inner channels, bringing moderate rain rates for up to 6 hours before transitioning to showers behind the front.

LONG TERM
/Tuesday into next weekend/
Rain continues for primarily the southern portion of the panhandle Tuesday before showers move up across the rest of the panhandle Wednesday into Thursday. These easterly showers are associated with waves moving around a weak low to the southwest in the Gulf around 140W. These showers will begin to decrease into Thursday night as a surface ridge begins to approach the panhandle, pushing the weakening low to the southeast. This ridge, accompanied by an upper level ridge building over the Gulf on Friday, will help to bring drier weather, clearer skies, and some higher temperatures into this weekend. Models showing 850mb temperatures of between 10 and 12 degrees C moving into the area alongside this ridge, which will bring us some warm air advection that will also aid in bringing temperatures up. This warm air advection alongside the surface ridging will bring some areas of the panhandle to over 70 degrees for their highs this weekend, with the highest temperatures looking to be Saturday afternoon.

Winds are expected to stay light in the majority of the panhandle midweek, with the exception of winds moving into Clarence Strait remaining elevated into Wednesday as the low to the southwest continues to bring southerly winds. Winds look to stay on the lighter side over the region for late in the week into the weekend. However, the pressure gradient in the northern panhandle may tighten as the ridge begins to move in while a low remains over Canada to the northeast, which may bring some elevated winds to Lynn Canal on Thursday.

AVIATION...VFR conditions continue this evening although rain is slowly working northward through the Dixon Entrance into the Southern Panhandle. The rain is expected to continue to move northward this evening into the morning hours tomorrow. Flying conditions are expected to remain mostly VFR although there is likely going to be a drop to MVFR for CIGs as we see rain continue into the morning hours. There is the potential for LLWS across the southern panhandle starting in the early morning hours so the TAFs reflect this potential. But this is expected to remain south of the Icy Strait area. With the precipitation for the Southern and Central Panhandle, the AAWU is highlighting an area for potential icing.

MARINE...

Outer Waters: The first, less impactful solution, outlined in the short term, will see the low shoot out to the gulf waters, limiting wind speeds in both the outer waters and inside waters.
Strongest wind speeds near the low center maximize around a strong breeze in the afternoon through early evening time frame.
Elsewhere along the coast from Sitka southward, widespread fresh to strong breezes (17-27 knots) will persist from the afternoon through midnight.

For the more impactful system, around a 30% chance of occurrence, wind speeds along the coast will be enhanced by higher pressure along the coast mountains, increasing wind speeds to near gale to gale force. Additionally, cold air wrapping around the developing system will descend to the surface, resulting in a strong, gusty jet with wind gusts as high as 45 knots. Regardless of either solution, wave heights do not look to exceed 10 ft due to lack of sufficient fetch length and time for more developed seas.

Inside waters: Focusing more on the impactful system as this solution will impact the inner waters more. Strong breezes coming in from Dixon Entrance will move up Clarence Strait and into Sumner Strait. As the low moves northward near Sitka, fresh to strong breezes in Peril Strait and near Five Finger will develop and persist for at least 6 hours. Ahead of both the warm front and cold front, winds in the central & northern panhandle will switch to northerlies to up to a moderate breeze before switching to southerly. Lynn Canal in particular is expected to see up to a fresh breeze southerly wind accompanying the cold front Monday evening.

As it stands, there is a blend of both the more impactful system in both the outside and inside waters forecast, with wind speeds slightly muted in the inside waters. As the more likely solution is less impactful, consider these wind speeds as the upper end of what is expected, unless confidence increases on the more impactful system.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641-642-661>663.