Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cold Bay, AK
July 26, 2024 3:35 PM AKDT (23:35 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:16 AM Sunset 10:55 PM Moonrise 10:56 PM Moonset 12:27 PM |
PKZ165 Port Heiden To Cape Sarichef- 347 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight - NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu and Thu night - NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri through Sat - NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun - N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
PKZ100
No data
No data
FXAK68 PAFC 261308 AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 506 AM AKDT Fri Jul 26 2024
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Sunday night)...
A deep closed upper level low is tracking inland across Southwest Alaska, with an increasingly negatively tilted trough headed for Southcentral Alaska. A series of short-waves are ejecting out of the trough into Southcentral. An atmospheric river extends from the North Pacific along the leading edge of the trough into Southcentral. The 12Z Anchorage sounding showed a precipitable water value of 1.38", which is 163% of normal. The combination of a moist environment and dynamic forcing is leading to widespread rain overspreading Southcentral, locally moderate to heavy in intensity (at least by Alaska standards). At the surface, a weak triple point low has formed over the northwest Gulf, with an occluded front tracking northward toward the north Gulf coast.
Ridging out ahead of this front combined with lower pressure as you head northward across mainland Alaska is leading to locally gusty gap winds, namely for Turnagain Arm, the Knik River Valley and the Copper River.
Rainfall will become more widespread, steadier, and in some cases heavier as we head through the morning hours today - with the upper low and primary trough axis approaching from the south and west. Southerly upslope flow will enhance rainfall amounts in the Mat-Su as well as Prince William Sound and the Gulf coast. Models vary on the exact track of the upper low, but all bring at least a portion of the center across interior Southcentral tonight. With very cold air aloft , this will steepen lapse rates and lead to showers - and perhaps even an isolated elevated thunderstorms.
Precipitation will taper off tonight through Saturday as the upper low and trough exit to the north and east. Clouds will decrease, leading to warmer temperatures and some sunshine on Saturday.
Strong zonal flow aloft will steer a short-wave trough quickly eastward from the North Pacific to the Gulf and Southcentral on Sunday. There is model spread with regard to the track of of the short-wave and whether it catches Southcentral or remains mostly south over the Gulf. Nonetheless, there is another chance of rain Sunday as this short-wave moves through. There is higher confidence in what follows, with another upper level low and trough crossing the Bering Sea and into southern Alaska Sunday night- Monday.
This will bring another round of soaking rains to Southcentral.
While the rain will lead to rises on area rivers and streams, no flooding is expected at this point in time. That could change if we see enough big rain producers all in a row.
-SEB
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 506 AM AKDT Fri Jul 26 2024
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Sunday night)...
A deep closed upper level low is tracking inland across Southwest Alaska, with an increasingly negatively tilted trough headed for Southcentral Alaska. A series of short-waves are ejecting out of the trough into Southcentral. An atmospheric river extends from the North Pacific along the leading edge of the trough into Southcentral. The 12Z Anchorage sounding showed a precipitable water value of 1.38", which is 163% of normal. The combination of a moist environment and dynamic forcing is leading to widespread rain overspreading Southcentral, locally moderate to heavy in intensity (at least by Alaska standards). At the surface, a weak triple point low has formed over the northwest Gulf, with an occluded front tracking northward toward the north Gulf coast.
Ridging out ahead of this front combined with lower pressure as you head northward across mainland Alaska is leading to locally gusty gap winds, namely for Turnagain Arm, the Knik River Valley and the Copper River.
Rainfall will become more widespread, steadier, and in some cases heavier as we head through the morning hours today - with the upper low and primary trough axis approaching from the south and west. Southerly upslope flow will enhance rainfall amounts in the Mat-Su as well as Prince William Sound and the Gulf coast. Models vary on the exact track of the upper low, but all bring at least a portion of the center across interior Southcentral tonight. With very cold air aloft , this will steepen lapse rates and lead to showers - and perhaps even an isolated elevated thunderstorms.
Precipitation will taper off tonight through Saturday as the upper low and trough exit to the north and east. Clouds will decrease, leading to warmer temperatures and some sunshine on Saturday.
Strong zonal flow aloft will steer a short-wave trough quickly eastward from the North Pacific to the Gulf and Southcentral on Sunday. There is model spread with regard to the track of of the short-wave and whether it catches Southcentral or remains mostly south over the Gulf. Nonetheless, there is another chance of rain Sunday as this short-wave moves through. There is higher confidence in what follows, with another upper level low and trough crossing the Bering Sea and into southern Alaska Sunday night- Monday.
This will bring another round of soaking rains to Southcentral.
While the rain will lead to rises on area rivers and streams, no flooding is expected at this point in time. That could change if we see enough big rain producers all in a row.
-SEB
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...
A potent upper level low is moving ashore near the Kuskokwim Delta this morning, pushing gusty but not particularly strong onshore winds into Southwest as it heads northeast. Steady rain along the low's occluded front close to the Alaska Range is giving way to showers as seasonably cool air aloft moves into place with the low and facilitates a more unstable atmospheric profile. More zonal flow is in place across the Bering and Aleutians, with the typical low stratus meandering across most of the region. The next system of interest that will soon bring a bit more unsettled conditions to the Aleutian Chain is approaching Shemya from the southwest. This next low and occluded frontal system will move quickly northeast today into the Aleutians, spreading rain and gusty southeast to southwest wind to around small craft intensity into the southern Bering Sea. Very warm low level temperatures and moisture will also stream north along and behind the low's front, likely helping to support a strong inversion off the sea surface and widespread fog advancing north and east with time towards the southern AKPen and Pribilofs through at least Saturday.
Looking more towards the weekend, the pattern will remain unsettled as multiple weak shortwaves continue to traverse the mostly westerly flow in place aloft and bring intermittent rounds of rain to both the greater Bering region and Southwest. Much of Southwest could actually see a decent break in the rain and even see a few breaks of sunshine in between systems on Saturday, but this should prove short-lived. The next stronger shortwave will move quickly across the Bering Saturday night, helping to maintain the existing surface low then drifting north of the Pribilofs. The low and attendant front will arrive in Southwest on Sunday morning, spreading more steady rain into Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta. Meanwhile, a much deeper upper trough will drop down from Kamchatka into the western Bering between Saturday and Sunday, then swing east towards the Southwest coast yet again with more rainfall potential Sunday evening. In short, the fall-like, cool and wet pattern is here to stay for the foreseeable future.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday to Thursday)...
No change to previous discussion
An active pattern is expected to persist throughout the period.
A shortwave over the Bering embedded within the main longwave trough axis will move over Southwest Alaska late Sunday.
Widespread moderate to locally heavy rain is possible over Southwest Alaska by late Sunday, with the system spreading eastward into Southcentral Alaska during the day Monday. Unsettled conditions with periods of showers are expected to persist for Southern Alaska on both Tuesday and Wednesday as the now upper level low remains situated over mainland Alaska. Gusty northwesterly gap winds are possible across the Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday as the low departs to the east over the Northern Gulf and a weak transient surface high builds in over the central Aleutians. Another system emerges from the North Pacific and impacts the Aleutians with periods of rain on Wednesday. Overall, temperatures will remain below average for the long term period with persistent cloud cover and rain.
-ME
AVIATION
PANC...A series of short-waves will lead to multiple rounds of rain today with varying intensity. As a result, there will be some fluctuations in ceiling and vis. Initially, low level southeast flow will keep conditions primarily in the VFR category.
However, as we head through the day the depth of southeast flow will become more shallow and the strongest dynamics (and heaviest rain) will arrive, with a period of MVFR conditions likely. IFR is not out of the question in this pattern, though it would be brief in nature if it did get that low. VFR conditions will then return as the primary trough axis crosses through between 00Z and 06Z.
Meanwhile, gusty southeast winds will be in and out of the terminal, but will ultimately prevail for much of the day.
A potent upper level low is moving ashore near the Kuskokwim Delta this morning, pushing gusty but not particularly strong onshore winds into Southwest as it heads northeast. Steady rain along the low's occluded front close to the Alaska Range is giving way to showers as seasonably cool air aloft moves into place with the low and facilitates a more unstable atmospheric profile. More zonal flow is in place across the Bering and Aleutians, with the typical low stratus meandering across most of the region. The next system of interest that will soon bring a bit more unsettled conditions to the Aleutian Chain is approaching Shemya from the southwest. This next low and occluded frontal system will move quickly northeast today into the Aleutians, spreading rain and gusty southeast to southwest wind to around small craft intensity into the southern Bering Sea. Very warm low level temperatures and moisture will also stream north along and behind the low's front, likely helping to support a strong inversion off the sea surface and widespread fog advancing north and east with time towards the southern AKPen and Pribilofs through at least Saturday.
Looking more towards the weekend, the pattern will remain unsettled as multiple weak shortwaves continue to traverse the mostly westerly flow in place aloft and bring intermittent rounds of rain to both the greater Bering region and Southwest. Much of Southwest could actually see a decent break in the rain and even see a few breaks of sunshine in between systems on Saturday, but this should prove short-lived. The next stronger shortwave will move quickly across the Bering Saturday night, helping to maintain the existing surface low then drifting north of the Pribilofs. The low and attendant front will arrive in Southwest on Sunday morning, spreading more steady rain into Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta. Meanwhile, a much deeper upper trough will drop down from Kamchatka into the western Bering between Saturday and Sunday, then swing east towards the Southwest coast yet again with more rainfall potential Sunday evening. In short, the fall-like, cool and wet pattern is here to stay for the foreseeable future.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday to Thursday)...
No change to previous discussion
An active pattern is expected to persist throughout the period.
A shortwave over the Bering embedded within the main longwave trough axis will move over Southwest Alaska late Sunday.
Widespread moderate to locally heavy rain is possible over Southwest Alaska by late Sunday, with the system spreading eastward into Southcentral Alaska during the day Monday. Unsettled conditions with periods of showers are expected to persist for Southern Alaska on both Tuesday and Wednesday as the now upper level low remains situated over mainland Alaska. Gusty northwesterly gap winds are possible across the Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday as the low departs to the east over the Northern Gulf and a weak transient surface high builds in over the central Aleutians. Another system emerges from the North Pacific and impacts the Aleutians with periods of rain on Wednesday. Overall, temperatures will remain below average for the long term period with persistent cloud cover and rain.
-ME
AVIATION
PANC...A series of short-waves will lead to multiple rounds of rain today with varying intensity. As a result, there will be some fluctuations in ceiling and vis. Initially, low level southeast flow will keep conditions primarily in the VFR category.
However, as we head through the day the depth of southeast flow will become more shallow and the strongest dynamics (and heaviest rain) will arrive, with a period of MVFR conditions likely. IFR is not out of the question in this pattern, though it would be brief in nature if it did get that low. VFR conditions will then return as the primary trough axis crosses through between 00Z and 06Z.
Meanwhile, gusty southeast winds will be in and out of the terminal, but will ultimately prevail for much of the day.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| KGCA2 - 9459881 - King Cove, AK | 49 mi | 47 min | SE 7G | 51°F | 29.99 |
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for PACD
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for PACD
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for PACD
Wind History graph: ACD
(wind in knots)Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Amak Island, Bristol Bay, Alaska, Tide feet
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Grant Point, Izembek Lagoon, Bristol Bay, Alaska, Tide feet
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