Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hollis, AK

SHORT TERM
/through Friday night/ A frontal band continues to push inland Wednesday afternoon, with widespread light to moderate rainfall expected throughout the panhandle by Wednesday evening. The front has reached most communities besides Ketchikan and Metlakatla, and will entirely engulf the rest of the panhandle within the next few hours.
Periods of heavy rain will be possible as the front passes over, with gusty southerly winds of 20 to 30 kts expected with the peak of the front. The northern panhandle, mainly Yakutat, should see skies start to clear overnight and into Thursday morning as the band of precipitation lingers over the central and southern interior panhandle, continuing light rainfall into Thursday night.
Around an inch of accumulation is expected through tonight, with only around a quarter of an inch expected Thursday. Skies in the southern and central panhandle are expected to clear out through Friday before another front moves into the far northern gulf Friday night, bringing clouds back to the northern panhandle. The main area impacted by this upcoming front will be Yakutat and the northeastern gulf coast, though the rest of the northern panhandle has a chance to see periods of light rain through the weekend.
See the long term discussion for more information.

LONG TERM
/Saturday and Sunday/ Only minor changes to mid range forecast as another weak frontal passage is expected to push through the panhandle starting Friday night. Southerly flow associated with the approaching low will drive mid to low level moisture into the region, causing moderate precipitation rates to the outer coast and areas north and near the Icy Strait Corridor with the heaviest rainfall concentrated near Yakutat, rainfall totals around 1.5 to 2 inches expected through Saturday night. This front will gradually shift eastward through Saturday, with highest forecast confidence of rainfall along and north of a line from Port Alexander to Kake to Petersburg, however with tongue of high pressure moving northwward from N Pac, thinking amounts will be limited to around 0.50 inch or less, with neglible to trace amounts for the S Panhandle.
Dynamic forcing will help keep precipitation across the area as the upper level jet traverses northward over the northeast gulf coast before exiting the region Sunday evening. Following the passage of this system, a transition to a drier and significantly warmer pattern is anticipated for Monday and Tuesday as a ridge aloft develops. The NBM guidance for early next week highlights the potential for temperatures in the low to mid 60s, across the central to southern panhandle. Theses warmer temperatures are coupled with clearing skies and drier lower levels.

AVIATION
/through 00z Friday/ A low pressure system is impacting the Alaska Panhandle through tonight. The low is bringing MVFR to VFR conditions. There will likely be periods of IFR - especially across northern portions of the panhandle. As the low makes landfall near PAYA this evening, that will bring the most impactful conditions and heaviest rainfall. While PAYA may experience some IFR tomorrow AM, they should overall improve as the low pressure system dissipates.

VFR down to IFR conditions exist this afternoon for the southern portion of the panhandle from Sitka southward. These conditions are expected to persist through the evening hours into tonight with ceilings being the bigger concern. Although visibilities could be down to MVFR conditions especially during the overnight hours. Conditions should start to improve for the southern panhandle starting tomorrow morning into the afternoon but some clouds could stick around with lower ceilings.

MARINE
Wind speed described using the Beaufort Wind Scale.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): As of Tuesday afternoon, a weakening gale force low is near 55N 140W and rapidly shifting north toward our coast. Anticipate southerly winds to continue to build along the majority of our coast Tuesday evening, with strong breezes to near gale force conditions. The highest winds will likely impact Cape Edgecumbe north toward the Fairweather grounds. Winds will diminish briefly Thursday as a ridge builds across the Gulf, becoming northwesterly. This break will be short lived, a gale force low will develop Friday along the northern coast, bringing easterly strong gales to Cape St. Elias and southeasterly strong breezes to the Fairweather Grounds. From Cross Sound south toward Dixon expecting southerly moderate breezes.

Touching on sea state, currently our coastal network is reporting westerly swell near 13 to 15 seconds at 4 to 6 ft, from a hurricane force low several days ago. As the weakening gale force low lifts into the Gulf, we are seeing buoy 84 starting to report building fresh seas out of the south, with significant heights forecasted to reach near 10 to 13 ft; highest seas offshore from Cape Decision north toward the Fairweather Grounds. Seas and winds begin to diminish Thursday, with westerly swell beginning to dominate the wave systems. Gale force conditions develop Friday along Cape St. Elias.

Inside (Inside Channels): Surface observations across the inside continue to report increasing southerly winds, with speeds reaching peak intensity overnight Tuesday. The general feel of sustained winds will be fresh breezes (17 to 21 knots), with localized areas seeing strong breezes (areas like Taiya/Eldred Rock, near Pt. Gardner, and near Grave Point in Stephens). One unknown is the upper arms of Glacier Bay which could see similar winds as northern Lynn Canal; current forecast has fresh breezes (17 to 21 knots). Winds begin to relax Thursday morning as the low makes landfall along the northern coast and a ridge builds in the Gulf. Expect sea breezes later Thursday.

Mariners operating near major ocean entrances like Cross Sound, Chatham, and Sumner should be aware of fresh seas near 8 to 10 ft, with 10 ft more likely for Cross Sound.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.