Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 9:49 PM Moonrise 9:56 PM   Moonset 5:16 AM

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PKZ155 South Of The Ak Peninsula Castle Cape To Cape Sarichef- 347 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
.small craft advisory through Thursday - .
Today - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.Tonight - NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.Thu - N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.Thu night - N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.Fri - N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.Sat - W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.Sun - NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 240041 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 441 PM AKDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Quiet weather continues throughout much of Southcentral as a ridge of high pressure aloft amplifies over the northern Gulf up into central and eastern Alaska. This has resulted in much of Southcentral finally seeing sunny to mostly sunny skies. The exception would be the southern half of the Kenai and Kodiak Island where increased cloud cover and showers have lingered as a weakening trough moves southeastward. Showers will continue to wind down from north to south this afternoon and evening; however, Kodiak Island will likely see showers and foggy conditions through Wednesday morning. The 12Z sounding showed decent conditions for diurnal cumulus this afternoon, but they have been slow to form over the bowl and Mat-Su Valley. If they do form, a drier boundary layer should limit any light precipitation.

The ridge will strengthen overnight tonight before starting to tilt back to the west as a large low over the Bering starts to drop southward and a frontal boundary lifts north over the Gulf. The ridge, sandwiched between the Bering low and a low over northern Canada, will get squished between the lows by the end of the week.
The front associated with the Bering low will bring another round of showers to the western Gulf, Kodiak Island, and the southern Kenai.
Vertical moisture profile is fairly limited so no heavy precipitation is anticipated and more of a steady light rain.

- PP

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A vertically stacked low roughly 250 nm west of the Pribilof Islands continues lift slowly northward this evening. Latest model guidance is in good agreement with stalling the low's northward progress by midday on Wednesday. Thereafter, the low is forecast drop southeastward, eventually crossing the Eastern Aleutians near Unalaska sometime Friday morning in a weakened state. In the short term, water vapor satellite imagery shows the tail-end of a lengthy occluded front lifting into Cold Bay. The same front extends from the AKPEN northward up into the Northeast Russia coastline before wrapping cyclonically around the western Bering back down to just north of the Central Aleutians and back northward into the low's center. Small craft to gale force winds will remain within the low's broad circulation, mainly west of a line from the Pribilof Islands to Nikolski through tonight. Winds should gradually diminish through the course of the day on Wednesday.

Showery conditions will persist along the length of the occluded front. Evening radar shows light showers extending from the Alaska Peninsula into the Kuskokwim Delta. Much of this activity has transitioned to rain for all but Toksook Bay. Shower activity will also persist along the portion of the front extending through the western Bering. Snow has changed from snow to rain for Adak while a rain/snow mix is ongoing in Shemya. Into Wednesday and Thursday areas of light precipitation will continue over much of Southwest Alaska as the front moves further inland. A more focused area of precipitation will span the Central and Eastern Aleutians as the occluded low ventures southeastward into the North Pacific the next couple of days.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sat through Tue)...

The low that is currently over the Bering Sea will have meandered into the Gulf of Alaska by this weekend. The trough is tending to linger there through the extended forecast period, slightly nudging each day closer to the eastern Gulf. At the same time, a ridge builds over the Bering Sea Sunday through Monday and begins to toward Southwest Alaska as another low reaches the western Aleutians by Monday night and western Bering for Tuesday.

Moderate to low confidence that the low in the Gulf will be south enough to not have much QPF along the Gulf coast. This could mean the potential for easterly waves to bring pop up showers though, should skies be clear and enough moisture and instability for those to develop. There is low confidence on this time interval, especially over the Bering, where a front off the low will develop and the timing as it progresses across the Bering early next week.

rux

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Canoe Bay
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Wed -- 04:09 AM AKDT     6.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:16 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:16 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:38 AM AKDT     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:02 PM AKDT     5.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:10 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:26 PM AKDT     2.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:55 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Canoe Bay, Pavlof Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Beaver Bay
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Wed -- 03:10 AM AKDT     7.66 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:15 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:15 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:50 AM AKDT     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:03 PM AKDT     6.18 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:38 PM AKDT     2.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:08 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:53 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Beaver Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

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