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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 328 Pm Akst Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory Monday...
Tonight..NW wind 10 kt becoming s. Seas building to 3 ft late.
Mon..SE wind 25 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Mon night..SE wind 30 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior passes. Seas 8 ft building to 14 ft late. Rain.
Tue..SE storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
Tue night..S gale to 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
Wed..S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Thu..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Fri..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 110054 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 354 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2023

SHORT TERM
/through Monday night/...The next round of active weather is knocking on the door.

Quick notes: -Frontal passage will bring moderate to heavy precip to the area.
-The colder air in place will give the highways in northern Lynn Canal heavy snow.
-As the warmer air surges north, the snow will switch to rain (or a rain/snow mix) at sea level.

Details: For tonight, a quick moving ridge of high pressure will exit the area. So for those who had some sunshine today, those clouds will move in from the north.

Incoming front will bring snow to parts of the northern panhandle and rain to the south. Total snowfall amounts for those along the northeast gulf coast and in the northern panhandle tonight will be up to 3 inches.

As the front moves inland, warmer air is expected to surge northward. So for those along the coast, along Icy Strait, and south of Icy Strait, any snow will switch to rain late tonight and Monday morning.

For those in northern Lynn Canal and near sea level, snow will last into Monday morning, and is expected to switch to rain by Monday afternoon. But higher up on the highways, snow should last into Monday night. Winter Storm Warning was issued for the expected heavy snow.

Winds will be on the increase as the front moves inland. Gusts could reach near 30 to 40 mph.

LONG TERM
/Monday night through Wednesday/...Complicated system to impact the panhandle beginning this Monday and continuing through Wednesday. A storm force low will move into the north central gulf this Monday with a wave maximizing along the panhandle gulf coast Tuesday morning. An embedded wave will move up from the south in the triple point of the low to generate additional storm force winds and potential high winds over land areas for the southern panhandle.
This wave will continue to work its way northward through the panhandle and pass into the Yukon. As such, high wind watches were issued for the southern panhandle communities excluding Wrangell, Juneau, and Skagway, as the embedded wave moves northward.

For rain, kept the forecast mostly on track. 12 and 24 hour rainfall totals for the secondary, embedded wave moving northward continue to be approaching 10 year and, in a few cases, 25 year return intervals. With rising snow levels and high rain rates, a flood watch was issued regarding the potential for increased flooding potential in the central panhandle. For the southern panhandle, heavier rain rates combined with wind gusts approaching 60 mph has historically lead to an increased risk of landslides.

Finally, for the highways: A winter storm warning has been issued mainly for higher elevations on the Haines and Klondike Highway.
Less confidence exists for the Klondike Highway than the Haines highway. For the Haines highway, 80% of models have the USA side of the Haines Highway transitioning to rain Tuesday morning. However, for the Klondike highway, because of the higher elevation, snow could stay in place for longer than expected. Furthermore, it will depend on when and if the higher southerly wind speeds push near Skagway.

AVIATION
Conditions across the panhandle today have been varied depending on locations. VFR conditions remain for most areas while some isolated pockets of MVFR and IFR conditions have been reported. These conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. A warm front will approach the NE gulf coast bringing increased winds and precip as well as the northern parts of the panhandle. LLWS will increase across areas north of Icy Strait and into the NE gulf with the approaching front. As well as LLWS, current AAWU forecast graphics are pointing towards areas of moderate icing as well as moderate turbulence. Towards the end of the TAF period another warm front is expected to approach the area bringing more less than favorable flying conditions for the panhandle.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through Monday morning for AKZ317.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ318-319.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for AKZ318-325.
Flood Watch from late Monday night through Wednesday morning for AKZ320>330-332.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ642>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-022-031>034-036-053-641.

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Bell Arm
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Sun -- 04:14 AM AKST     4.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:39 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:05 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:21 AM AKST     16.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:29 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:11 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:02 PM AKST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:28 PM AKST     14.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bell Arm, Bell Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Shrimp Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:14 AM AKST     4.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:38 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:04 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:23 AM AKST     16.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:29 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:12 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:02 PM AKST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:30 PM AKST     14.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shrimp Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

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