Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Loring, AK

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A very active weekend in SE AK with forecasted heavy rain across most of the panhandle, high wind gusts in the southern panhandle, and heavy snow in the northern panhandle.

- Low pressure sliding north will spread moderate to heavy precip, mostly rain, to SE AK beginning in the south Saturday afternoon and lasting through Sunday afternoon.

- As the low enters the southern gulf, high wind gusts upwards of 60 mph, or higher, will spread into the southern panhandle.
Elevated wind gusts around 30 to 50 mph possible for the rest of the panhandle as well as the low moves north Saturday night.

- Heavy snow is possible in the far northern panhandle ahead of the low. But this part of the forecast has high uncertainty.

SHORT TERM
Another front extending from a gale force low in the northwest gulf is currently swinging through SEAK and will bring moderate showers tonight, diminishing towards daybreak.
Another round of light snow is expected near White Pass and upper Haines Highway with around 1 to 2 inches possible. Gusty southerly to westerly winds along and behind the front, mainly for the inner channels, will diminish across the south this evening and across the north overnight. Winds will increase across the south by around daybreak ahead this weekend's very impactful storm.

LONG TERM
/Saturday and Sunday/...This weekend's snowfall event has high potential to be a heavy snow maker to the higher elevations of the Klondike, but for the Haines Highway there is still some uncertainty. Even higher uncertainty at sea level in Skagway and Haines.

A low pressure system is forecast to track north through the eastern gulf through Saturday night. The low will then move northeast just south of Cross Sound and move inland towards Canada just north of Juneau. That being said, there is some evidence that the low could track west and stay in the gulf through Sunday or turn towards Canada and track south of Juneau on Sunday. These other tracks would greatly affect the final snowfall amounts but for now, the following amounts are based on the first track.

Another variable is the precipitation type forecast. As this low moves north, the front side of the low will have northerly flow, that would usher in cooler air and support snow. But as the low tracks north, there will be a southerly push of wind that would switch the snow to rain. The question is whether or not the southerly push makes it that far north. There is more evidence in the models that the switch to rain would happen because of the southerly push but history and pattern recognition would say snow would last into Sunday afternoon. So the precip type forecast will be a challenge.

For Skagway and Klondike highway, depending on the temperature profile and how much moisture can flow into the area, snowfall amounts could be as high as 14 to 17 inches, but numbers like that are on the high end with the lowest confidence. The more likely amount for the Klondike highway is around 10 to 13 inches. If the southerly push makes it to Skagway faster than expected, total snowfall amounts for Skagway would be lower than the 1 to 3 inches currently forecasted for Skagway.

For Haines and the Haines Highway, ahead of this low, northerly flow would pull cooler air into the area, which would support snow. And as the low tracks into Canada, we would expect winds to stay out of the west, allowing for cooler air to continue to get pulled in and keep the chances for snow in the forecast. But the southerly push of wind could usher in warmer air that would switch the snow to rain. So low confidence on the precip type forecast for now. But if the temperature profile can stay cold enough to support snow, heavy snow would be likely late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Total snowfall amounts for the Haines Highway is around 6 to 8 inches with 2 to 4 inches for areas closer to sea level.

/ Tuesday night to Friday / Weakening low over the Northeast gulf pocket with showers rotating into the panhandle for Wednesday.
Low lingers over the northern gulf to Wednesday morning before falling apart. A wave from the eastern Pacific moves north to Haida Gwaii, and may graze the southern panhandle. A weak ridge across the central gulf towards the panhandle offers some protection from the storm track out of the south and diverts into British Columbia. The feature seems to be persistant trying to hang on over the gulf on Thursday. Along a general long wave trough over the eastern gulf this will lead to weak onshore flow but the confused flow south of Alaska Peninsula/Kodiak Island are is steering the flow pattern away, so limiting the possibility of significant system through the weekend.

AVIATION
The previous front has moved northeast out of the panhandle and scattered showers are filtering through in the wake. This shower development is very light and patchy, allowing much of the panhandle to see broken skies and avoid most of the rain. A majority of TAF sites are comfortably VFR with CIGs AoA 4000 ft, though the occasional passing shower may bring CIGs down to AoB 3000 ft for a short period. These clearing VFR conditions are expected to persist overnight, with winds calming down everywhere except Skagway and Haines. The next system continues to push toward the panhandle from the south, with high overcast CIGs beginning to move in along the southern panhandle overnight into Saturday. Rain will reach the southern panhandle through Saturday morning, with gusts to 20 kt and LLWS around 30 kt. As the front continues to spread north through the panhandle, CIGs will keep dropping to MVFR with VIS between 4 and 6 SM and gusts increasing past 30 kt. LLWS will also continue to increase to near 50 kt by the end of the 24 hour period. Conditions will continue to drop through Saturday night and into Sunday, with periods of IFR VIS and heavy rain.

MARINE
Conditions will rapidly deteriorate on Saturday as a storm force low advances up from the south, bringing with it a strong surge of winds and elevated wave heights which will last through most of the weekend. A gale force front arriving on Monday will bring with it more winds and elevated seas.

Outside Waters: After a relative respite Friday night, with prevailing S flow of 15 to 20 kt and wave heights of 8-12 feet, conditions deteriorate beginning Saturday as a storm force low moves in from the south. Winds veer out of the E North of the low, reaching 35 kt through the day, while to the low's east, sustained winds of 40 to 45 kt are expected, with storm force winds (50 kt) for Hecate Strait and the Dixon Entrance Saturday night. As the low continues moving north, anticipate seas rising up to around 25 ft, and between 15 and 10 feet for areas south of Yakutat Bay. Seas then diminish to around 10 to 15 feet by late Sunday, before increasing on Monday and Tuesday as first a front sweeps through the gulf, and then a a low moves through the Gulf on Tuesday.

Inside Waters: S winds overnight flip out of the N as a low moves up from the South and approaches the panhandle on Saturday. As the low lifts northward, 20-25 kt northerly winds are expected for areas north of the low through the daytime and overnight hours, while southerly winds of 25-35 kt are expected for areas E and S of the low as the system moves North. Clarence Strait in particular could see winds beyond even this, with speeds reaching storm force (50 kt) Saturday night). The northern panhandle will hold on to N winds the longest, with Lynn Canal not becoming S until Sunday afternoon or evening. As the low departs through the latter half of Sunday, expect wind speeds to begin to diminish down to 15 to 20 kt, before broadly strengthening again on Monday as a front moves in from the W. Elevated seas are expected through this time, with the highest seas the latter half of Saturday through Sunday afternoon.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for AKZ318.
Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for AKZ319.
Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for AKZ326-328>330-332.
High Wind Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 9 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ328-332.
High Wind Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 9 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ330.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-661-662.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-035-053-643-644-651-652-663- 664-671-672.