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PKZ033 Southern Chatham Strait- 836 Pm Akst Sat Dec 2 2023
updated
.small craft advisory through Sunday...
Tonight..SE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft, except 14 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Sun..S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft, except 13 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Sun night..S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 6 ft, except 17 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Mon..SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 10 ft, except 16 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Mon night..SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 10 ft, except 17 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers.
Tue..S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
Wed..S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Thu..E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 022349 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 249 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2023

SHORT TERM
/through Sunday night/...For the short term, all eyes are on the next gale force low tracking into the central gulf this afternoon.

This low will bring strong winds and widespread light to moderate rainfall that will move from south to north later this evening into Sunday morning. Isolated heavy rainfall is possible in areas where the topography will help with lift.

One area with high uncertainty about whether or not the precip will arrive is for those in the northern Lynn Canal area. The northerly winds flowing out of Canada may keep the precip at bay until the next system moves in early next week. But if the precip is able to move in, 24 hour snowfall amounts (from 6AM Sunday to 6AM Monday) will amount to around 1 to 3 inches.

Another area of concern is the possible gusty winds in the south, where as the front tracks through, wind gusts could reach 30 to 45 mph. These stronger wind gusts would start later this evening and last into Sunday morning.

LONG TERM
/Monday through Saturday/...After a brief reprieve for the panhandle, another low will move into the gulf from the northern pacific bringing more active weather to the area. This next low will bring a gale force front to the panhandle starting Monday morning. This front will bring increased winds to the outer coast as well as the southern inner channels. Besides the winds, this front will bring more precipitation to the area. The origin of the moisture looks to be from the tropics and subtropics and shows atmospheric river characteristics. But the majority of the moisture looks to be pointed at BC and N Washington while some moisture will be drawn northward to SE AK. Most of the area will see rain from this system as it works northward, the exception to this will be the N Lynn Canal area. With higher pressure in Canada, colder air be working through terrain gaps bringing colder temperatures to the area. Right now, snow accumulations do not look to be deep but could be impactful for the area. There is some uncertainty with when and how strong could a warm air surge push north to warm things up limiting snow accumulations. This is something that will need to be watched through the rest of the weekend. If the cold air is able to hang around, snow amounts could be higher. Eventually the low will move north more bringing more increased winds to the area for Tuesday and the rest of the week as the low hangs around the N gulf coast before dissipating.

Beyond Wednesday, the pattern continues to look active for the long term with another front moving in for next weekend. Some guidance points towards to a stronger system but will need to be watched during the start of the week to see if ensemble guidance picks up on what the deterministic GFS continues to show.

AVIATION
Trends on aviation flight categories will be trending down across the central and southern Panhandle areas through late evening, with rain and lowering ceilings moving from south to north through morning. As the low moves into the eastern Gulf, we expect to see winds in the lowest 2 thousand feet to increase out of the east and southeast tonight leading to a period of increased low level wind shear along and south of a Sitka to Petersburg line tonight into morning. Ceilings mostly drop into upper IFR to lower MVFR cagetory across the southern areas of the Panhandle tonight.
Rain and snow increase for areas north of Sitka and Petersburg tomorrow with lowering ceilings expected by 16Z. Yakutat remains VFR through the next forecast period.

MARINE
Low pressure from yesterday continues to fade out while moving east. Next up, another gale force low is moving into the gulf. ASCAT wind measurements are putting 35 knots along the front in the central gulf. Wave heights are already pushing 10 to 15 feet in the gulf with forecasted heights reaching 15 to 20 feet along the front as it tracks through the eastern gulf.

Inner channel winds and waves will respond to the front with wind speeds increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Along and behind the front, the winds will be generally out the east to southeast while ahead of the front, the winds will be out of a northerly direction.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through Sunday morning for AKZ328.
Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for AKZ329.
Strong Wind from late tonight through Sunday morning for AKZ330- 332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661>664.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-035-036-053-642>644-651-652- 671-672.

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Cape Ommaney
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Sun -- 05:10 AM AKST     8.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:09 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:30 AM AKST     5.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:56 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:26 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 03:53 PM AKST     8.55 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:55 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:03 PM AKST     1.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Ommaney, Alaska, Tide feet

Port Alexander
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Sun -- 05:20 AM AKST     9.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:10 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:31 AM AKST     5.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:56 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:26 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:03 PM AKST     9.95 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:55 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:04 PM AKST     1.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Alexander, Baranof Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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