FXAK67 PAJK 262224 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 224 PM AKDT Fri Jul 26 2024

SHORT TERM
The current ridge in the gulf will continue to push inland as a front moves in from the west. The first impacts with the front will bring strong breezes to the northern gulf this afternoon into the morning. The front is then expected to reach the inside waters early Saturday morning increasing winds in Lynn Canal into strong breezes to 20-25kts. Other inner channels will also see a wind increase to southerly moderate to fresh breezes.
As this front reaches the panhandle it will dissipate leaving likely chances of precipitation throughout the period.


LONG TERM
/Sunday through midweek/...

Quick hits: -Lingering onshore flow will keep lower chances (20-50%) of rain in the forecast Sunday.
-Approaching 500mb low and associated surface low will cause increasing chances of rain from north to south with high chances (>80%) of rain for most of SE AK by Tuesday.
-Strongest winds on Sunday will be in northern Lynn Canal at around 15 to 20 knots. Lighter wind speeds elsewhere.
-The approaching system will cause marine wind speeds to increase everywhere late Monday into Tuesday.

Details: 500mb low with associated surface low over central Alaska will slide southeast early next week. This will be the source of the next round of rain and wind that will impact the area late Monday into Wednesday.

Overall, 24 hour rainfall amounts aren't looking all that impressive with the hardest hit areas, the northern half of the panhandle, getting around a half inch to one inch of rain Tuesday into Wednesday. The higher percentiles, 75th to 90th, get closer to 1.5 to 2 inches. So higher amounts of rain are possible and will be watched closely over the weekend.

As this next system approaches, wind speed will increase to upwards of 15 to 20 knots. Higher wind speeds are expected in the gulf, upwards of 25 knots, and in Lynn Canal, upwards of 20 to 30 knots.
The higher wind speeds in Lynn Canal are based on forecasted pressure differences between Skagway and Juneau, where the forecasted pressure difference is around -2.5mb, which historically produces winds around 20 to 30 knots in July.
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