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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 302 Pm Akdt Wed Oct 4 2023
Tonight..SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. NEar ocean entrances, seas 6 ft. Rain.
Thu..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Thu night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Fri..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Fri night..SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Sat..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Mon..E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 042340 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 340 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SHORT TERM
Satellite imagery and surface analysis show a storm force low over the AK peninsula with a warm front pushing N over the E gulf. Radar returns show rain moving N across S Baranof Island this afternoon with satellite derived rain rates showing heavier rain along the boundary over the gulf. This boundary will push into the NE gulf later this evening. Models in good agreement on another wave rotating around the parent low pulling more moisture into the NE gulf late tonight and Thu. This will result in a period of heavy rain over the NE gulf by Thu morning before spreading E impacting the Icy Strait corridor in the afternoon and evening. Highest rainfall amounts expected over the NE gulf coast with 3-4" of precip tonight through late Thu night. The heavier rain rates Thu afternoon/evening over the central panhandle could result in rapid rises on smaller basins. Despite the abundant rainfall, flooding is not expected with this storm. Winds over the SE gulf will increase to 20-30kt tonight and a gale force barrier jet will develop over the N gulf. Over the inner channels, Nly flow will shift to southerly from S to N as the front pushes N.

LONG TERM
/Friday into next week/...
Quick notes: -Outlook still is rainy and cloudy for SE AK.
-Weather computer models are showing potential elevated wind speeds this weekend associated with a couple passing storm systems.
-Late this weekend, marine winds over 25 knots along the coast and in some southern inner channels are looking likely. Early evidence of gale force winds possible in the southern marine areas.
-Land areas could see wind gusts near 30-45 mph late this weekend as well.

The Details: Deterministic and ensemble data are all showing a similar story - two storm systems look to bring rain and wind to SE AK.

The first one is looking to pass through the gulf late Friday night into Saturday morning. The second low has some uncertainty in the timing. Deterministic models are not in agreement about the timing but ENS are narrowing down on late Sunday into Monday.

The first low will keep the moderate to heavy rain over the panhandle. As the low moves north, inner channel wind speeds look to reach 20-25 knots with 25-30 knots along the coast.

If confidence grows on the strength and track of that second low, forecasted wind speeds may need to be increased. But for now, marine winds of 25 to 30 kts are a safe bet with wind gusts over land areas reaching near 40 mph.

Be sure to stay plugged into the forecast updates on this evolving forecast.

AVIATION
A warm front situated across the southern Panhandle will continue to march north overnight, bringing widespread stratiform rain and LLWS. Heaviest precipitation rates will be on the northern coast from Cape St. Elias east towards Cape Spencer, with IFR anticipated. For the interior Panhandle, will see dominant MVFR, dropping to IFR under heavier bursts of stratiform rain.


AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-652-664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>643-661>663.

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Exchange Cove
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Wed -- 04:58 AM AKDT     12.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:01 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:26 AM AKDT     3.91 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:51 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:45 PM AKDT     14.60 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:19 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:09 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:24 PM AKDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Exchange Cove, Alaska, Tide feet

St.John Harbor
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Wed -- 04:59 AM AKDT     12.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:01 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:27 AM AKDT     3.81 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:53 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:46 PM AKDT     14.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:18 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:06 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:25 PM AKDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St.John Harbor, Zarembo Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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