Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whale Pass, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 202250 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 250 PM AKDT Sun Apr 20 2025

SHORT TERM
/Through Monday night/ Quiet day across the panhandle with only a few showers to deal with across the northeast gulf coast and Icy Strait area. These showers are mainly developing from the lingering colder air aloft that has destabilized the atmosphere above 1000 ft over the gulf. The showers are then advected into the outer coast and northern inner channels by the W flow currently ongoing at low levels across the gulf. These showers are rather light with mainly trace amounts being reported. The pops for this afternoon and evening have been raised to around 30 to 40 percent in the northern half of the panhandle as a result.

Showers are expected to linger into Monday before a stronger trough moves into the panhandle Monday afternoon and night bringing a more organized area of rainfall into the area. Rain rates are expected to increase through Monday night, but with no substantial moisture to work with, rainfall amounts will likely only be less then 1 inch through Tuesday afternoon.

No significant winds are expected through the short range period.
Most areas will remain below 20 kt of wind with mostly onshore flow expected through the period.


LONG TERM
/Tuesday through Sunday/...A Low in the NE Gulf dissipates Tuesday allowing for an area of high pressure to develop. Light showers diminish through this time. The next feature to impact the area will be a front moving into the eastern Gulf while the parent low remains near Kodiak. This will bring increased winds and seas to the area as well a return to heavier precipitation for the panhandle. Winds along the front look to reach gale force with barrier jet formation. The heaviest precipitation mainly along the NE Gulf coast but places along the outer coast could see some heavier periods of precipitation. For the late week and weekend the uncertainty of where the low will track as it weakens is uncertain. There are two main tracks depicted by operational models and the ensembles. one keeps the low in the NE gulf, stronger and longer, thus continuing shower activity well into Friday. The other track drops the low to the SE along the panhandle coast, with a faster drying trend. Previously more models lined up with the southerly track, but latest runs are shifting to a northerly solution. This is SE AK so a mostly cloudy chance of rain forecast fits right in with this uncertainty, for now. For the weekend operational models have a wide range of solutions to put it politely. Ensembles keep a generic low over the western gulf and a large swath of precip over us. Low forecast confidence is the word for now, so expect details to change as hopefully a steadier trend develops.
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