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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 305 Pm Akst Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory Friday morning...
Tonight..SE wind 15 kt becoming E 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers.
Fri..E wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 10 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Fri night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 10 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Sat..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Sat night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Sun..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Tue..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 302322 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 222 PM AKST Thu Nov 30 2023

SHORT TERM
Weather front stalled over the AK Panhandle today.
Overnight central and far northern areas saw either snow or a rain snow mix. Accumulations were an inch or less for most locations with the exception of Haines and the Haines border where totals of 2 to 5 inches were reported. As temps warmed precip transitioned to all rain or mostly rain with some mix of snow. Elsewhere precip started as then remained rain. As the front shears apart showers will diminish overnight, but then the next front moves in Thursday night into Friday. This incoming low has been tricky to nail down as models continually shifted the position. As of this afternoon had better model agreement with NAM/ECMWF and ensembles keeping the low further to the west, compared to the GFS which rapidly tracked the low center into the SE Gulf. For central and northern areas the incoming low should keep precip further to the south, flip winds more northerly, and cause temps to lower. The advancing low will increase winds over coastal and southern locations with gusts upward of 40 mph. If the front does push further north then precip for these locations would be more mix than all snow as temps would be bit higher. To the south, higher PoPs and all rain. Friday 24 hour rain totals as of now only half an inch to an inch at most. Due to the model spread, went with some NAM as it was a good mid point between in line operational models and ensembles. GFS was considered an outlier for now, but that solution is not out of the questions.
Forecast confidence is low on synoptic details however even with the spread no significant weather expected thru Friday.


LONG TERM
Early Saturday, the ongoing low-pressure system in the Gulf will gradually dissipate, offering a temporary respite before another robust low-pressure system develops later late Saturday night. Anticipate widespread precipitation sweeping across the central and southern regions, with a mix of rain and snow in the far northern areas through Sunday. This system is expected to swiftly transition inland by Sunday evening, causing the widespread precipitation to diminish and become more sporadic.

By late Sunday night, an upper-level trough will take a negative tilt, facilitating the movement of a mature low-pressure system into the southern Gulf. This system will usher in a wider extent of sustained gale-force winds across our coastal and offshore waters. In specific areas like Hecate Strait, Dixon, and segments of the southwest coast, gusts may potentially escalate to severe- gale levels. While the extent of these stronger winds encroaching into Clarence remains uncertain, the latest forecast package update will show an increase in wind intensity and duration in the southern areas from Monday into Tuesday.

Simultaneously, this approaching low-pressure system will usher in a notable influx of moisture, resulting in widespread moderate rain across the central and southern communities. However, analyses from CW3E Scripps' atmospheric river guidance tools suggest a limited duration and magnitude of Integrated Vapor Transport into the Panhandle. Consequently, this weather event is categorized as a weak atmospheric river, with anticipated rainfall amounts and rates within historical norms for this season. Should guidance indicate a northward shift of the stronger AR event over Canada, updates to the forecast will be imperative.

Regarding snowfall, temperatures at the 850mb level still don't favor substantial snow impacts for the majority of the region.
However, concerns persist for snow impacts at higher elevations along the Klondike and Haines routes. While snowfall is expected in the southern mountainous regions, the central and southern communities will see rainfall through Tuesday night, followed by a dip in snowlevels from Wednesday onwards into the latter part of the week.

AVIATION
Impacts to aviation in SE AK over the next 24 hours will be mainly associated with the exit of one front and the approach of the next front later in the forecast period.

For starters, there is a lingering front over the panhandle. For those near and ahead of the front, MVFR conditions are being reported and will last into the evening. For those behind the front, high-end MVFR with improving conditions are expected.

In between the two frontal passages, conditions around the panhandle will improve to high-end MVFR to VFR this evening into the overnight.

Later in this forecast period is when the next front will begin to tease the panhandle with lowering conditions with early evidence of LLWS.



MARINE
The stalled front over the Panhandle delayed the winds switching snow and increasing due to tightening pressure gradient.
Gale force winds once again move over the AK Gulf with the next front tracking in through Friday along with building seas. Inner channel winds increase again as the front approaches and if the track of the low is still south, directions expected to flip to the north again.



AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Friday morning for AKZ323-328-332.
Strong Wind Friday morning for AKZ327-330.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ662>664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-035-036-053-641>644-651-652- 661.

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Bushy Island, Snow Passage, Alaska, Tide feet

Exchange Cove
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Thu -- 02:39 AM AKST     13.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:58 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:02 AM AKST     4.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:02 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:11 PM AKST     15.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:22 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:45 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:46 PM AKST     -0.93 feet Low Tide
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Exchange Cove, Alaska, Tide feet

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